The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

[quote PrincessNutNuts]@BlueBlancmange

The models are dependent on the information they had at the time about how effective the vaccines will be, assumptions about levels of vaccine uptake, and the plan for how, and how quickly the vaccine is rolled out.

I'm sure they are updating the model as new information becomes available but since very few people under 60 have yet been vaccinated they don't have much to go on to predict vaccine take up in the younger age groups.

Here an article that talks a bit about some of the different models:

news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-scientists-predicted-30-000-coronavirus-deaths-under-most-optimistic-model-for-lifting-lockdown-12226058

And here's a graph:

I'm in favour of 5a the green one and the current roadmap is generally considered to be closest to 3, the red one. [/quote]
I agree it would be better to get numbers right down and to have more people vaccinated, and then try to keep viral circulation at a very low level.

Whitty has been spot on throughout. He always has said there would be no quick fix. That we would have problems again this winter etc. People just choice not to listen sometimes. However most of what they predicted like us was before they new how quickly the vaccines would appear.

Now they are saying this is the way to open up in a slow controlled manner. Whilst we vaccinate as fast as possible.

I choose to carry on listening to Whitty and Van Tam over indy sage, Dr fake from the internet, Tracey from Facebook and the latest unproven research from whatever university the media has decided to blast at us.

A gradual roadmap for reopening will see Covid-19 restrictions eased over four steps spread across at least four months.

The plans are an attempt to kick-start the British economy and ease the societal pressures of lockdown without triggering a dangerous resurgence of the virus.

The roadmap will be underpinned by four key “tests” that are linked to data, which will act like a checklist that must be met before moving onto the next step of reopening.

The four tests are: the vaccine roll-out is going as planned; vaccines are effective in bringing down deaths and hospitalisations; case numbers are not rising so fast that the NHS risks being overwhelmed; new variants do not create unforeseen risks.

The four steps are separated five weeks apart. That leaves four weeks to monitor the impact of the preceding step and one week to give people notice. The dates are the earliest dates at which the next step could happen.

I agree it would be better to get numbers right down and to have more people vaccinated, and then try to keep viral circulation at a very low level.

Yep. Taking it slowly and carefully so we don't have much of a third wave, seems like a no-brainer, right?

But sadly that's not what we'e doing.

in your opinion

That's all it is, an opinion

Personally after all the opinions on the vaccine program and AZ being so wrong. I would quit giving opinions until I had a decent understanding of the issues and a lot more prospective.

However it is a free world and definitely free speech should be encouraged

Yes.

“Quit giving opinions! But free speech is encouraged”

Gotta love the internet!

@Duckyface

“Quit giving opinions! But free speech is encouraged”

Gotta love the internet!

It's not even as if the idea that hospitalisations and deaths will a) continue, and b) rise after we open up - even though vaccines exist - is particularly controversial.

It's just maths, mostly.

And the knowledge that we started vaccinating in December and locked down in January and still, 50,000 people have died of covid already this year.

But back to the maths:

Are the vaccines 100% effective across all age groups?

No.

Have 100% of people been fully vaccinated?

No.

Have we reached the 90% fully vaccinated probable herd immunity threshold?

No.

Well guess what?

So inclusion it is less the fact that the plan is bollocks but more that some people have unrealistic expectations

Nothing is ever going to be 100%

We were initially aiming for over 75% of the population vaccinated. Then rely on some immunity from covid on top of that.

However take up has far exceeded expectations. Which is amazing. Also good as now we won't just be slowing the virus but actually bringing it down to a managed number each year like the flu.

Oh no, the plan is bollocks.

How could it be anything else when it is predicated so heavily on the vaccines but when the opening up begins 68% of the population won't have had any.

I could explain that my self but would take an age to type.

So here is a rather dated example from Pfizer. Allow for the effective to be slightly lower etc but it pretty much answers any doubt

We will soon have 40% of adults that have been given their first dose

Plus all the other hard fact percentages etc I have previously given on this thread

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

I could explain that my self but would take an age to type.

So here is a rather dated example from Pfizer. Allow for the effective to be slightly lower etc but it pretty much answers any doubt

If 3.3 million doses of vaccine in December reduced the death risk by 40% then the fact that 50,000 British people died in January and February kind of proves my point not yours, surely?

Vaccines reduce the hospitalisations and deaths but any percentage reduction off an enormous number is still going to be a pretty big number.

3.3m doses hadn't been given in December, where are you getting that from?

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

We will soon have 40% of adults that have been given their first dose

Plus all the other hard fact percentages etc I have previously given on this thread

On Monday about 1% will have as much protection as we can give them but even that is not 100%

31% will have some protection

And 68% will have none.

The inevitability of a third wave if we open up on only 1% fully protected is just maths.

@InterfectoremVulpes

3.3m doses hadn't been given in December, where are you getting that from?

The chart I replied to.

But it doesn't say that.

Chart:

Just over a million doses had been given ay the end of December.

@PrincessNutNuts

Chart:

Posting it again won't make it say that 3.3m doses were given in December.

What it does say is that 3.3m doses could reduce deaths, etc by 40% and 4m doses are due (for delivery) in December.

@InterfectoremVulpes

3.3m doses hadn't been given in December, where are you getting that from?

It is a Pfizer chart giving example of how the vaccine would work from way back before we even started.

Just using to show percentages not what actually happened in real time 🙈😂

Chart:

Yes, that's part of my point. A lot of ifs and coulds and false assumption about vaccine effectiveness across all age groups.

It's a bullshlt chart.

truly i know that, and you know that and most people looking at the chart know that.

However...

@PrincessNutNuts

Chart:

Yes, that's part of my point. A lot of ifs and coulds and false assumption about vaccine effectiveness across all age groups.

It's a bullshlt chart.

Nice backpedal.

How does you saying something the chart doesn't actually say prove anything 🤣