The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

Zero/Max suppression just isn't going to happen in the U.K. whether you think it's workable/feasible or not is arguable (personally I think not, the U.K. is far too dependent on imports arriving by land and sea in my view) either way that ship has sailed.

I suspect the longer gap between vaccine doses will become standard procedure in a fair few countries as time goes on. In my view it was 100% the right choice for the U.K.

I am hoping that March will go as well as expected on the vaccine front and that it's possible to progress through the groups more quickly than anticipated. If the current rate is maintained or increased we should be ahead of schedule.

@PrincessNutNuts also a country could have a higher age population , higher risk illnesses more prevalent etc , until we have this data comparisons are not that useful

@PrincessNutNuts glad you know more than half the scientists in europe
Like i said we don't have all the data and there may be valid reasons why europe has been more hard hit
Also not all countries report the same at all
We are a small country with a big population and that alone makes it harder with a virus that spreads like this

[quote donewithitalltodayandxmas]@PrincessNutNuts also a country could have a higher age population , higher risk illnesses more prevalent etc , until we have this data comparisons are not that useful
[/quote]
I usually find in these discussions that it doesn't matter if the country has an older population, is more reliant on imports or is more densely populated etc - people still say we couldn't do it here.

@Sunshinegirl82

Zero/Max suppression just isn't going to happen in the U.K. whether you think it's workable/feasible or not is arguable (personally I think not, the U.K. is far too dependent on imports arriving by land and sea in my view) either way that ship has sailed.

I suspect the longer gap between vaccine doses will become standard procedure in a fair few countries as time goes on. In my view it was 100% the right choice for the U.K.

I am hoping that March will go as well as expected on the vaccine front and that it's possible to progress through the groups more quickly than anticipated. If the current rate is maintained or increased we should be ahead of schedule.

I think after Lockdown 5, a slew of problematic variants and two years of an incontrovertibly failed mitigation policy people might finally be minded to give it a try.

*But check out their position on the FT's excess mortality chart.

I'd still rather be them than us.*

Oh, for sure, Germany's still looking much better than us.

But as far as I know, European countries have generally all struggled to maintain the low rates achieved by their first lockdown using test and trace alone. The problem is far from unique to the UK.

[quote donewithitalltodayandxmas]@PrincessNutNuts have you looked at uk excess death rates over 10 years rather than 5 ? [/quote]
No, I stick with the international standard of 5. The reason everyone uses 5 is because a decade ago is a different demographic and not objectively comparable.

Anybody pushing 10 is an ideologically propaganda artist trying to find "facts" to fit their opinions - or a victim of one.

@CornishYarg

*But check out their position on the FT's excess mortality chart.

I'd still rather be them than us.*

Oh, for sure, Germany's still looking much better than us.

But as far as I know, European countries have generally all struggled to maintain the low rates achieved by their first lockdown using test and trace alone. The problem is far from unique to the UK.

When they shift to max suppression things will get better.

@PrincessNutNuts

I guess if Lockdown 5 happens people might but as and until it happens (and I am as confident as I can be that the vaccines will make enough of a difference that it won't) we are where we are with the approach that we have.

As with all of these things, the vaccine gap, the severity of the lockdown, the damage caused by the lockdown etc, etc it's very unlikely that there is one "correct" answer. Everything is a balance of risks and benefits.

@PrincessNutNuts Drosten said in an interview this week that he thinks the UK plan is sensible.

[quote donewithitalltodayandxmas]@PrincessNutNuts glad you know more than half the scientists in europe
Like i said we don't have all the data and there may be valid reasons why europe has been more hard hit
Also not all countries report the same at all
We are a small country with a big population and that alone makes it harder with a virus that spreads like this [/quote]
When your country has the 4th worst pandemic response in the world by any measure then isn't it more productive to look at why almost everyone has been able to do better with a view to emulating them rather than trying to find excuses for our own poor performance?

After a year we've got to have at least a hypothesis that the mitigation policies followed by many countries in Europe are the reason we've been hardest hit?

That combined with each country having their own Carl Heneghans, Sunetra Guptas, Steve Bakers, Rishi Sunaks and Charles Walkers carping away, and promoting misinformation to underminine any effective pandemic response.

[quote avenueq]@PrincessNutNuts Drosten said in an interview this week that he thinks the UK plan is sensible.[/quote]
Yeah?

What does he say?

Anything about a third wave?

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@PrincessNutNuts

I guess if Lockdown 5 happens people might but as and until it happens (and I am as confident as I can be that the vaccines will make enough of a difference that it won't) we are where we are with the approach that we have.

As with all of these things, the vaccine gap, the severity of the lockdown, the damage caused by the lockdown etc, etc it's very unlikely that there is one "correct" answer. Everything is a balance of risks and benefits. [/quote]
Well we'll soon see if we get covid wards full of unvaccinated younger people of working age with school age children and a variant that spreads really well via kids.

Maybe it'll be covid wards full of the 31 million partially vaccinated JCVI 9 cohort instead?

Maybe both.

Maybe summer lockdown won't be as bad?

@HermioneWeasley

One dose of the vaccine reduces hospitalisation by over 90%. Over 20 millions adults have now been vaccinated. The vaccine also reduces transmission. It doesn’t matter if Covid rampages through kids - they don’t get sick with it.

The thing that’s bonkers is that it’s taking so long to unlock. I’d be doing it much faster, apart from international travel which I’d be much more restrictive on.

Can their unvaccinated parents not catch it then?

Apart from schools opening nothing else actually happens of significance for another 6 weeks. If hospitalisations start rising then we'll have to pull back and/or delay step 2.

Keeping children out of school has a cost, it's not benign, so we come back to a balance of risks.

I agree apart from schools going back and the opening up of more outside we are another 5.5 weeks from anything else opening

PrincessnNutNuts are you saying that coronavirus will see that we have vaccinated the over 50s so will decide somehow to hit younger ones this time round

Or that the vaccine somehow wont work as well with one dose (or that the Government is lying about that)

We have to move forward - not in the way that Texas and other US states are going but slowly and surely.

I am not really sure what else you would want - we cant keep in lockdown for that much longer. Its been 11 weeks here

He says UK government has very good advisersand the plans have substance
He fears a third wave, but not for uK

@PrincessNutNuts
https://pledgetimes.com/faz-podcast-for-germany-interview-with-virologist-drosten-english-relaxation-ideas-have-substance/

For everyone else - Drosten is Germany's best known virologist, and a highly respected adviser to the government.
He is known for urging caution.
If he says the UK's plan makes sense, it is highly reassuring.
Will be interesting to see what @PrincessNutNuts thinks to that

@PrincessNutNuts what science degree or medical degree do you hold?

@PrincessNutNuts what do you propose we all stay in lockdown until all are vaccinated?
Kids stay out of school even longer?
You talk about suppression how long do you think we should stay in with the hope of achieving that ?

@avenueq

For everyone else - Drosten is Germany's best known virologist, and a highly respected adviser to the government. He is known for urging caution. If he says the UK's plan makes sense, it is highly reassuring. Will be interesting to see what *@PrincessNutNuts* thinks to that

He says some of it makes sense.

He said the same about last summer's but we abandoned it when the R went up.

And he doesn't think the U.K. is strangely immune from a third wave.

The BII7 variant that is dominant here is one of the variants he is most worried about.

Single *thread

Agreed anyfucker.

Schools are open to some extent already, presumably to children who are more at risk of exposure due to key workers status or vulnerability tying in with socioeconomic risk factors. Is there evidence of much transmission in schools at the moment?