The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

I've posted this before, the modelling used by SAGE is questionable at best:

velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html?m=1

31 % vaccinated PLUS a significant number having gone through infection

@avenueq

31 % vaccinated PLUS a significant number having gone through infection

You and others, need to look up whats happening in Brazil, past infection is no guarantee of protection, at all, of any newer variant.

I feel that this roadmap is bollocks.

My thoughts are along the same lines as princess nut nuts.

Happy to be proved wrong though.

@PrincessNutNuts

I'm just going by what SAGE say *@BlueBlancmange*. Following the science and the data as best I can.

This roadmap is quite similar to last summer's with at best 31% of the population having some protection.

This is overly simplistic but a similar plan to last years combined with 70% of the population every bit as as unvaccinated as they were last year, but with added more transmissible variants? We're going to get similar results aren't we?

The bullshit of "it's 'only' a danger to the vulnerable" combined with the erroneous belief that "the vulnerable are vaccinated" seem to have embedded themselves so firmly that people can't see past them.

I don't believe it is what all scientists are saying, is it?

From what I understand the first dose affords considerable protection.

www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2021/03/pfizer-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccines-may-offer-high-efficacy-elderly

And I do not by any means think that Covid is only a danger to the vulnerable, and I think we should continue to be cautious to protect everyone.

However the vulnerable do make up a large proportion of those who unfortunately die or require hospitalisation, so I am just struggling to understand how having given most of the vulnerable considerable protection things could get just as bad again in terms of numbers of deaths and hospitalisations.

But that being said, we should not just throw those who are younger and without underlying health conditions to the wolves.

@PrincessNutNuts

Just to clarify it is not that I think we shouldn't proceed with caution, and ideally I would like to see a Zero Covid policy. However if we proceed as currently planned, I just hope that we will not see a return to the terrible level of hospitalisation and death that we have seen previously. I was under the impression that the vaccination programme would at least prevent that happening in such large numbers again, so it is disturbing to be advised it will happen. I cannot understand how this is the case.

@jasjas1973 funnily enough Drosten says it's unlikely that Manaus had the level of immunity that had been claimed. And he says that even if immune escape happens it's unlikely it would lead to severe cases
Can be read here

https://www.ndr.de/nachrichten/info/74-Coronavirus-Update-Durststrecke-mindestens-bis-Ostern,podcastcoronavirus284.html#brasilien

@BlueBlancmange there's no proof it will

Ffs one dose of vaccine provides a lot of protection.
A lot more than the annual flu jab

Latest Brazil variant invading immunity rubbish. It is explained here clearly or go research yourselves

mobile.twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1367142419188350976

[quote BlueBlancmange]@PrincessNutNuts

Just to clarify it is not that I think we shouldn't proceed with caution, and ideally I would like to see a Zero Covid policy. However if we proceed as currently planned, I just hope that we will not see a return to the terrible level of hospitalisation and death that we have seen previously. I was under the impression that the vaccination programme would at least prevent that happening in such large numbers again, so it is disturbing to be advised it will happen. I cannot understand how this is the case.[/quote]
As Alison Young from QVC likes to say, "the products can't work sat on the shelf."

Vaccines will help, but not next Monday when most of us are still completely unvaccinated.

Britain’s Covid-19 vaccines may stop people passing on the virus “almost completely”, the head of immunisation at Public Health England has revealed.

Dr Mary Ramsay said grounds for hope that vaccination may achieve the holy grail of halting community transmission were emerging from new studies.

*The thing is even since SAGE released their latest projections things have moved on again. New research, new boosters being available quicker, resultsthat are far better than anyone expected from people vaccinated with first dose and outstanding results from the first vaccinated with both doses.

Add to all that the fact that from the 15th we will ramp up vaccinations. Which means well as more people getting second doses. We are on course to finish first dose to all adults early. Mid may and every adult that wants the vaccine and is able to have it will be done.

As for kids. They have started trials on over 12s.*

@PrincessNutNuts I'm sorry it doesn't make sense that when so many of the people most at risk of hospitalisation and death HAVE already been vaccinated, that vaccines won't help at all. This is not to take away from the fact that many people will still remain at risk.

The elderly account for most the deaths to date. Also the majority of hospitalisations. It goes with out saying that there vaccination will have sorted a lot of this mess.

Though apparently I still have to say it to people 🤷‍♀️

[quote ILookAtTheFloor]I've posted this before, the modelling used by SAGE is questionable at best:

velvetgloveironfist.blogspot.com/2021/02/the-covid-modellers-have-jumped-shark.html?m=1[/quote]
He says: "if we have a vaccine that is 100% effective in preventing death, we won't have any COVID-19 deaths except among the minority of people who don't take the vaccine (which, to be blunt, is their problem; there are not enough of them to overwhlem the NHS"

He's a mathematical illiterate who creates propaganda for a Far Right think tank. I follow him on Twitter.

Twitter @HugoGye

NHS England weekly stats published to 28th Feb. 1st dose has gone to:

95% of over-80s

100% of 75-79
95% of 70-74
85% of 65-69
21% of under-65s

93% of frontline NHS staff
88% of clinically extremely vulnerable
91% of older care residents
71% of care staff

In Scotland, one dose of Pfizer appeared to provide an 85% reduction, and Oxford 94%, in admissions in this age group, over a slightly longer period - 28-34 days after a first dose.

Not 100% but after first dose only pretty bloody good

[quote BlueBlancmange]@PrincessNutNuts I'm sorry it doesn't make sense that when so many of the people most at risk of hospitalisation and death HAVE already been vaccinated, that vaccines won't help at all. This is not to take away from the fact that many people will still remain at risk.[/quote]
The more transmissible variants will spread faster and get the people who can be hospitalised even if they aren't the most at risk group.

Most of us haven't come into contact with covid yet.

With faster spread more of us will.

When the schools open next week, how many people there in school will be vaccinated?

Very few.

So how will the vaccines stop it spreading in schools and on to parents of school age children and from there into their workplaces?

It won't.

And that's what starts the third wave.

Infection after exposure isn't inevitable, some posters think it is.

I didn't catch it when I was exposed, neither did anyone in my household. Neither did 2 family members who lived with covid + people and didn't distance.

Not everyone gets it. Add that to the vaccinated people, the people who've already had it, the pool of people to still catch it gets smaller every day.

Most of us haven't come into contact with covid yet.

Really I thought you thought schools meant everyone would be in contact with it within a week

@PrincessNutNuts

I can see the greater transmissibility of the new variants is an issue. I'd still be surprised if they brought us back to where we were in January. We are not just jumping straight back to normal and more and more people are being vaccinated every day. It's hard to imagine that they would immediately spread to every susceptible person and bring the hospitals to the brink again with less vulnerable people. But at the end of the day of course I do not know.

But I agree schools going back so soon is unwise and will inevitably lead to more spread.

As apparently schools are the main problem according to some people. It goes without saying then that schools in the worst hit areas will now have a large number of people in the school community with some immunity

Add to that a ever growing number of over 50s teachers and parents that have had or will have this month their first jab

Then all the vulnerable adults, NHS workers, carers, etc in the school community that will be the same.

Then to top that off the shocking fact that the priority list is actually around half the UK population

@BlueBlancmange

The models are dependent on the information they had at the time about how effective the vaccines will be, assumptions about levels of vaccine uptake, and the plan for how, and how quickly the vaccine is rolled out.

I'm sure they are updating the model as new information becomes available but since very few people under 60 have yet been vaccinated they don't have much to go on to predict vaccine take up in the younger age groups.

Here an article that talks a bit about some of the different models:

news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-scientists-predicted-30-000-coronavirus-deaths-under-most-optimistic-model-for-lifting-lockdown-12226058

And here's a graph:

I'm in favour of 5a the green one and the current roadmap is generally considered to be closest to 3, the red one.

Schools is a balance. There will be some more spread for sure. However the rate of that spead will stay lower than it could be because everything else is in lockdown.

Most secondaries by the time they finish testing all the kids. Most are staggering this over the first week. Will only be back just over 2 weeks then it is Easter holidays. A perfect two week fire breaker. Several million more people vaccinated by the time they start back after that too. I am late 40s and around here expecting to get done late March.

@Dustyboots

I feel that this roadmap is bollocks.

My thoughts are along the same lines as princess nut nuts.

Happy to be proved wrong though.

I'd love to be proved wrong.

So far it's always been even worse than I think it's going to be.

Last March who thought we'd spend most of the next year in restrictions and still hit 150,000 covid deaths as we will this month?

It was unimaginable back then.

Last September when Chris Whitty and Patrick Vallance said we needed a circuit breaker otherwise we'd be at 200 deaths a day by November people were outraged and called them doom mongers with their graph of doom.

But they were spot on, and it only got worse from there.