The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

[quote donewithitalltodayandxmas]@PrincessNutNuts what do you propose we all stay in lockdown until all are vaccinated?
Kids stay out of school even longer?
You talk about suppression how long do you think we should stay in with the hope of achieving that ? [/quote]
No. I propose a max suppression policy.

The basic principle is that the government get new infections down as low as they can, and then keep them there. It's proactive not reactive.

For instance, Surveillance flags up 17 new cases so the government takes immediate and decisive action.

Rather than see it's going south, watch numbers climb for a couple of months, then have another lockdown. And then some restrictions, invent a new tier, have a one day super-spreader event, and then another Lockdown followed by some restrictions...

Instead, the government does its job, protects its citizens, and the citizens pretty much live their lives.

Google it if you're interested.

One of the best things about it is that even if you don't do it perfectly you're still far better off than doing the Lockdown Hokey Cokey for a year.

@PrincessNutNuts which interview/articles with Drosten have you read then? Do you listen to
his podcast? I do.
He's worried about B117 because im Germany and other countries measures are not strong enough to stop it from growing exponentially and overtaking, thereby creating the third wave.
This, he says, doesn't apply the same way in theUK because B117 is already dominant here, but has been suppressed to a large extent, massively helped by the vaccination programme which he's very impressed with, and by now a significant amount of immunity through infection.

As a parent of teens, I'd be interested to know what the OP feels is happening to secondary children at home. Do teachers really know?
My experience is a huge drop in learning, self esteem and confidence. No sports, music, art, drama....almost two seasons lost for some specialist activities and out of school sports.
Eating disorders, diagnosed depression, lack of self-care and suicide attempts among my DC's friends. Year 10/Year 12 have lost 2-3 terms of teaching and still public exams are scheduled next year. Schools have to get going again. I would rather slow down the rest of socisl and economic re-opening, shut garden centres and click/collect etc and ration supermarket shopping to one trip/one person per household per week and one hour exercise a day, rather than have schools closed any longer.

[quote avenueq]@PrincessNutNuts which interview/articles with Drosten have you read then? Do you listen to
his podcast? I do.
He's worried about B117 because im Germany and other countries measures are not strong enough to stop it from growing exponentially and overtaking, thereby creating the third wave.
This, he says, doesn't apply the same way in theUK because B117 is already dominant here, but has been suppressed to a large extent, massively helped by the vaccination programme which he's very impressed with, and by now a significant amount of immunity through infection.
[/quote]
I follow him on Twitter

[quote donewithitalltodayandxmas]@PrincessNutNuts what science degree or medical degree do you hold?
[/quote]
I'm just an ordinary mum who believes SAGE (well, SPI-M) when they say that all opening up scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths except for the slow careful over 9 months one. (Which we're not doing.)

And I know that the Chancellor just extended furlough until October...In March.

So whatever we may think we've been told about nightclubbing in June, the OP is right. The roadmap is bollocks.

It's a road to nowhere. It's a roadmap right back here.

And the government know that.

Because SAGE told them.

@PrincessNutNuts

Why do they not expect vaccination to have drastically cut hospitalisations and deaths by summer though? Not saying that I don't necessarily agree that a Zero Covid policy would be preferable, but I don't understand why we would get back to the very same place once the majority of adults have been vaccinated.

Do teachers really know?

Yes. a) not stupid, b) have our own children.

We didn't cause this though, pandemic respiratory virus did.

Germany have approved the AZ vaccine for over 65's and they are moving to a 12 week delay between doses. Not clear from the article if that's just in respect of AZ or for Pfizer too.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56275342

I wouldn't read too much into the furlough extension, there needs to be a buffer to allow businesses to avoid redundancies. Extending it at the last minute (which they've done before) is counterproductive because businesses end up making redundancies in anticipation of furlough ending. Hopefully this will avoid/minimise that.

[quote BlueBlancmange]@PrincessNutNuts

Why do they not expect vaccination to have drastically cut hospitalisations and deaths by summer though? Not saying that I don't necessarily agree that a Zero Covid policy would be preferable, but I don't understand why we would get back to the very same place once the majority of adults have been vaccinated.[/quote]
When we start opening up in a few days only around 1.3% of the population will be fully vaccinated, and 31% will have had their first jab.

Leaving almost 70% of the U.K. population with no vaccination protection at all.

Not even all of the JCVI 9 priority groups of vulnerable people will have had one jab yet.

We're doing 6 and 7 which will take a while. Then there's 8 and 9 to do after that.

Followed by the other half of the country.

But we start to open up next Monday.

So the vaccines will be of limited help until hopefully we reach the herd immunity threshold in the Autumn. (The Israelis think that's 90% fully vaccinated.)

And assuming the vaccines still work on the variants in play by then.

The reports of an Autumn booster and skipping stage 3 trials for the tweaked vaccines point to an awareness that they don't.

@Sunshinegirl82

Germany have approved the AZ vaccine for over 65's and they are moving to a 12 week delay between doses. Not clear from the article if that's just in respect of AZ or for Pfizer too.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56275342

I wouldn't read too much into the furlough extension, there needs to be a buffer to allow businesses to avoid redundancies. Extending it at the last minute (which they've done before) is counterproductive because businesses end up making redundancies in anticipation of furlough ending. Hopefully this will avoid/minimise that.

Great news re AZ and yes agree re furlough. It is sensible to allow for demand to pick up and there may be a lag where it’s still required.

Rates are rising again in some areas and we are not even out of lockdown yet. This roadmap is bollocks.

Cases, deaths and hospital admissions continue to fall

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases, deaths and hospital admissions continue to fall

Lockdown is working.

I thought there was good data re vaccines?

It's interesting, I am generally positive about the roadmap and think the vaccine figures being so positive means we are unlikely to need further lockdowns but I accept that I might be wrong and that delays/backwards steps might occur. I just don't think that they are inevitable.

Many people who are negative about the roadmap seem to be completely certain that their anticipated result will definitely happen, as though there is no possibility at all that it might work out more positively. Realistically though no-one knows for definite how things will play out, nothing is written in stone.

lockdown is working

Well yes but we can't stay in lockdown for the foreseeable its not feasible for many people to continue in this mere existence

@MarshaBradyo

There is, the vaccines are performing better than even the most optimistic of us expected. I have been really positive about vaccines from the very start but just how well they are working has surprised even me, and I had pretty high expectations!

[quote Sunshinegirl82]@MarshaBradyo

There is, the vaccines are performing better than even the most optimistic of us expected. I have been really positive about vaccines from the very start but just how well they are working has surprised even me, and I had pretty high expectations![/quote]
It’s great isn’t it - btw your vaccine posts have always been good to read even before we had much hope way back when. Positive and good foresight!

So it’s fair to say ‘the vaccines are working’ to counter pp.

Even if it’s earlier days Israel shows they work well.

The reports of an Autumn booster and skipping stage 3 trials for the tweaked vaccines point to an awareness that they don't.

No that they may not or that tweaking them may give even more protection.

We cannot continue in this lockdown - we are at the point now where the cure of lockdown is worse I think.

Of course there are going to be consequences of opening things up - I dont think anyone believes that there wont be. But the consequences now of not opening I think are now potentially worse

@PrincessNutNuts

I do agree we are opening up too soon. However surely a large proportion of vulnerable people do have good protection by now. As far as I understand the first dose does provide this.

With regard to the variants, I thought the thinking was that the vaccines would still help prevent severe disease. Although as far as I know this is not proven yet one way or the other. But at the moment I believe the UK variant is by far the dominant strain in this country and this does respond to the vaccine well.

I still find it difficult to see how we aren't already in a much better place. That said I agree we will see an increase in cases again, including hospitalisations and deaths, once we open up and especially with schools going back soon. And as such should open up more cautiously than is planned.

I'm just going by what SAGE say @BlueBlancmange. Following the science and the data as best I can.

This roadmap is quite similar to last summer's with at best 31% of the population having some protection.

This is overly simplistic but a similar plan to last years combined with 70% of the population every bit as as unvaccinated as they were last year, but with added more transmissible variants? We're going to get similar results aren't we?

The bullshit of "it's 'only' a danger to the vulnerable" combined with the erroneous belief that "the vulnerable are vaccinated" seem to have embedded themselves so firmly that people can't see past them.

But that is just part of it though there has to be a balance of risk - and SAGE are just interested in the COVID risk, the Government has to balance out the COVID risk with the longer term risks. If we dont start to at least plan to get out of this the number of business.

Also the number of vaccinations in theory should ramp up between now and tthe 12th April - covering the over 40s.

The under 40s are a fairly low risk age range. Its isnt ONLY a danger but once you hit that age range the balance of risk and dangers I think means that we have to move forward.

The biggest difference though between this and last summer is those dates are the earliest - at any point delays may occur. Particularly I think if we dont get the vaccinations through March 15th-April 12th they are predicting.

I agree in that the country does need to open up but I think the government are silly allowing foreign travel again. We are so fortunate to be on an island and I feel that'd be our best line of defence. We're doing so well with the vaccinations but the rest of the world isn't there yet. I just feel we're opening up so much risk for other variants for people to go abroad. I would happily sacrifice another year or two of no holidays to live in a country which was near to or back to normality 🙌

I'm sure SAGE have factored in the speed of the vaccine rollout, and know the figures for over 40s admitted with covid.

I entirely agree that we need a plan to get us out of it.

The trouble is, the SPI-M modelling says this isn't it.