The Road Map: It’s Bollocks, Right?

[AllTheWayFromLondonDAMN]

So, I feel a bit like I’m going loopy. And I want to preface this by saying that I really hope I’m wrong. We are both secondary teachers with two small kids and this year has been an absolute bitch. Work for us has been hugely full in, whether it’s been in school or online teaching. Our infant school aged children have missed school terribly and their whole lives at this age are all about school, their little pals and their grandparents and cousins, all of whom have been off limits for months. So this has been far from fun for us and I have no desire for this to carry on (before anyone accuses me of that).

BUT this is all bollocks isn’t it? I know that numbers are going down and that we are doing really well with the vaccinations but this road map that Boris has announced.... it’s magical thinking isn’t it?!?! Less than eight weeks ago we were in dire straits, with tens of thousands of cases and more than 1500 people a day dying. This lockdown has choked those numbers down but now... throwing all the schools back in at once?! Telling us that we will be able to open up hospitality in only six weeks or so?! Saying we won’t even have to wear masks in just 16ish weeks?! REALLY? Because whilst I know that the warmer weather will make things better and of course the vaccine is making things better, it just feels a bit to me like Boris has decided that he’s bored of Covid so he’s just announcing that it’ll he done and dusted and we can just forget about it by midsummers day. Which seems.... bonkers. Bonkers when this has been going on a year now and very recently we were in huge trouble. Some areas of the country are still in huge trouble. Are other European countries talking like this? Like we can just say we have all had enough, so we are going to stop Covid?! Because if it was that easy wouldn’t we have done this a year ago?!?!

So am I the mad one who’s just being a pessimistic old boot, or is anyone else finding this whole change of tone just a bit.... weird?

Schools will be full of vaccinated kids, taught by mostly unvaccinated teachers going home to mostly unvaccinated parents. I can’t see how Covid won’t spread In that situation.

... surely unvaccinated kids?

Otherwise agree...

@WhenSheWasBad @dustyboots
You are both saying rates will escalate rapidly, with unvaccinated kids, parents and teachers. This may be true but this demographic isn’t going (on the whole) to hospital or dying due to Covid.

Covid rates will go up. We’re not thinking it will disappear. But it just won’t be killing those most susceptible and overwhelming the NHS.

@Dustyboots yes the vaccines ARE 100% effective against serious disease, hospitalisation and death. They ARE. The point is people will still catch Covid but it will be mild. There is no way they should wait for schools to go back until every teacher is vaccinated. Every teacher over 50 and with underlying health conditions will be vaccinated.

I've said this before that soon, testing will become obsolete... they may well do it to find new variants etc. However the number of positives will be irrelevant once hospitalizations and deaths are at an acceptable level. (There will be an acceptable level of death as horrible as that sounds).

Even if they are still testing and reporting numbers etc all that will happen is that the death rate of the virus will drop dramatically.... once it is down to a level again that is acceptable, we will be free to do as we please.

I'm with you, I took the PM's announcement as him saying he couldn't be bothered any more and more people would die anyway. Johnson's resignation that people would die has shocked me right from the start, compared to, say New Zealand where the PM's stance was any death would be unacceptable. They've had 26 deaths and we have had 120k, all of them avoidable and Johnson hasn't resigned, I find it astonishing

It doesn’t matter if rates go high - so long as hospitalisations and deaths are low

Rates will go high. How then are hospitalisations and deaths going to stay low? Nothing has changed amongst the school community and families. We’re not vaccinated yet.

under 50s ie teachers, students and parents are not vaccinated yet.

...under 60s...

You are both saying rates will escalate rapidly, with unvaccinated kids, parents and teachers. This may be true but this demographic isn’t going (on the whole) to hospital or dying due to Covid.

Covid rates will go up. We’re not thinking it will disappear. But it just won’t be killing those most susceptible and overwhelming the NHS.

This.

Covid rates will go up. We’re not thinking it will disappear. But it just won’t be killing those most susceptible and overwhelming the NHS

Viruses continually mutate. How do you know who is going to be susceptible to an ever changing virus?

@Dustyboots Rates will go high. How then are hospitalisations and deaths going to stay low? Nothing has changed amongst the school community and families. We’re not vaccinated yet.

Because.......the people most likely to go to hospital or die will be.......vaccinated. Bingo !

Other European Countries have far more freedoms than us.

Schools are going back yes - but Secondary is now all masks all the time whilst inside and the testing criteria means that it will be a staggered approach.

We arent opening up anything else until April at the earliest - we are the strictist lockdown and highest number of vaccinations.

And the dates are just the earliest that it will happen - a minimum of 5 weeks between each stage with a colleciton of data at the end of the 4th week to see if it can be released the week after. Any increase in case rates or slow down in vaccinations and it will be delayed.

At the moment June 21st is the earliest it can happen - not the date it will.

There is a change of tone yes - but a far more cautious one tbf with less definites.

@Dustyboots Viruses continually mutate. How do you know who is going to be susceptible to an ever changing virus?

Are you a let’s stay locked down forever person?

@Dustyboots

It doesn’t matter if rates go high - so long as hospitalisations and deaths are low

Rates will go high. How then are hospitalisations and deaths going to stay low? Nothing has changed amongst the school community and families. We’re not vaccinated yet.

Deaths are already falling at a relatively higher rate than positive cases

A third of the adult population has been vaccinated with around 300,000 vaccinations happening daily and it’s still a week and a bit before kids begin to go back to school

I am glad we are at last coming out of lockdown. How long do you want us locked down for? Once all adults who want vaccine are vaccinated deaths and hospitalisations will be down low. Kids need to go back to school. We need to move our economy on. The rates went up shockingly high but the vaccines should bring rates down low.

@Quartz2208 ah but you clearly listened to the press conference on Monday unlike a lot of people on this thread

@Blessex, ah yes that's the chief medical officer who has presided over the highest death rate per million in the world? He has failed massively!

@Dustyboots

The whole point of this lockdown was to bring cases down while the vaccine programme was rolled out, so that we can go back to normal. That’s what’s happening.

But we have a highly contagious variant. None of those mixing - teachers, parents, kids are vaccinated. COVID will spread again like wildfire. Why wouldn’t it? Rates will be high again very soon. Why wouldn’t they be?

Rates would be high but hospitalizations would still be low... how do people not get this...once it is not dangerous to the vast majority ( yes a few young and healthy people get sick but this is the same with absolutely any disease, we just don't here about it everyday) we can open up. They wouldn't lock the country down for flu as the majority thatbdo get it will be fine. This is the same case once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated.

Viruses mutate in order to survive. This virus needs to survive. If we let it spread wildly again now it will attempt to infect the vaccinated. If it gets round the vaccine those vaccinated will no longer be safe. Or it may become more dangerous to younger people.

It won’t stay in the same form as it is now.

Listen to the scientists. They explain it better than me.

Covid will end up being like the flu or other kinds of infectious diseases. It won't go away OP! We need to learn to live with it, which is where the vaccination program comes in.
Yes cases will likely go up. Yes there maybe a slight increase in hospitalisation so.
But the vast majority of those who would have been severely effected would have hopefully been vaccinated, hence keeping these rates as low as possible.
If someone you know has Flu, do we lock down?? No. And no I'm not comparing Covid to Flu, I know it's a far more serious disease. But we need to start learning to live with it in the same way.
Roll on the easing of restrictions and life getting some kind of purpose back again!

@Dustyboots

Viruses mutate in order to survive. This virus needs to survive. If we let it spread wildly again now it will attempt to infect the vaccinated. If it gets round the vaccine those vaccinated will no longer be safe. Or it may become more dangerous to younger people.

It won’t stay in the same form as it is now.

Listen to the scientists. They explain it better than me.

Yes you’re correct. And that’s why scientists are already working on a booster vaccine for this year, and we will likely have yearly vaccines like we do with the flu. We know it will mutate but can vaccinate for this.

@Goldieloxx I find it incredible you even believe that you can compare numbers country by country honestly.

@MrBullinaChinaShop

The whole point of this lockdown was to bring cases down while the vaccine programme was rolled out, so that we can go back to normal. That’s what’s happening.

Exactly. Chris Whitty went to great lengths to explain the vaccine effect. Already, they are seeing improvement.

@Dustyboots

Viruses mutate in order to survive. This virus needs to survive. If we let it spread wildly again now it will attempt to infect the vaccinated. If it gets round the vaccine those vaccinated will no longer be safe. Or it may become more dangerous to younger people.

It won’t stay in the same form as it is now.

Listen to the scientists. They explain it better than me.

So what are you saying let's hide away forever as it can always change.... that is exactly what you are suggesting.... when will people ever understand that zero covid is impossible unless every country in the world has that idea. New Zealand can lock down as much as they want but they will open up eventually and it will become part of life there.

The lockdown forever people never have an idea of what they want to do except to hide away for the rest of their lives.

No it’s not bonkers. It would be bonkers if they didn’t have a vaccine but come June everyone will have been vaccinated.... so it won’t be spreading like wildfire

Yes please listen to the scientists not dusty bin.