The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

[noblegiraffe]

It's being reported that the government are about to embark on a two week PR campaign claiming that schools are safe. We've already seen hints of it in that Warwick report that was widely misreported as showing schools don't fuel community transmission (majorly pissing off the author who advocates a cautious return to schools).

The ONS random sampling survey graphs released today are amazing. They show a huge reduction in the infection rates due to lockdown, but the most incredible reduction is in the infection rate of secondary school children. They've gone from being the most infected subset of the population by far, to the 2nd least (behind 70+). It's clear that despite arguments that secondary kids were catching covid out of school (sleepovers, hanging around in parks etc), this just isn't true and the lack of mitigation measures in secondary schools allowed covid to run riot.

We can't re-open in the same way as in September. That would be madness. I know that people will say that it's fine, vulnerable people are being vaccinated and kids don't get it badly BUT what is not acknowledged is that kids aren't being vaccinated, a lot of their teachers won't be by March 8th, nor their parents and so we still need to keep infection levels down. In addition, rampant covid is incredibly disruptive to education. Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess that we should be trying our best to avoid repeating. Vaccinations don't address that issue at all.

Community levels are low, but then they were low in September. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops are shut now, but we want to be able to open them. We cannot rely on community levels remaining low to stop covid getting into schools and proliferating.

We need to be careful, because certainly secondary schools aren't safe to re-open in a Big Bang gung-ho way that some are advocating, particularly with a more transmissible variant in circulation. Remember to the week before Christmas when school attendance plummeted in Kent and London? In one LA, secondary attendance was at 17%. And yet the DfE decided to threaten schools that wanted to close early to stop the spread with legal action. The schools were right, and the DfE was wrong. Gavin Williamson can't be trusted to have sensible conversations about safety, he's more interested in bully-boy tactics and setting himself up in opposition to teachers and schools.

What can be done? I think there is room to open schools in some way on March 8th. My personal preference (and I'm no spokesperson for teachers here, other opinions will vary) would be primaries back and exam years back for three weeks, then Easter can be used to examine the impact of the full primary re-opening . I'm not sure that school is such a major factor in transmission at primary as it is at secondary for various reasons, however I'm sure that my primary colleagues have their own ideas about what needs to be done there. If full primary re-opening looks untenable, then I would prefer rotas to only certain year groups in. Some school for all pupils would be better than all school for some pupils as we had last year.

Secondary is a different kettle of fish and should be treated separately. Secondaries were a massive risk for transmission. The word 'bubble' should never be used in reference to secondary schools again, as 'bubble' means a group of people who all have to isolate if one of them catches covid, which went in the bin in secondary around the end of September. There are some easy wins in secondary -
Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.
A national programme to improve ventilation.
Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).
Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks instead of trying to keep year groups in and schools open as covid works its way through - the attendance just before Christmas in some schools meant kids would have been better served educationally if they were all at home.

Home LFT testing of kids - I'm not convinced tbh, maybe in addition to above measures, but certainly not instead of them.

So if the government messaging is as it has been: schools are safe and no additional measures to contain the spread in secondary are needed then they are lying and our kids deserve a more consistent and sustainable education than they got from September.

Fingers crossed they are more sensible than we have previously seen.

@Delatron

I thought the same *@hamstersarse*

Were you agreeing with that poster when they made such an offensive post about the OP that it was deleted?

Nice.

Haunted o not a 50% chance. But it's not just those over 70 in hospital. The numbers over 70 are pretty much equal to those under.

The actual risk in terms of percentage I don't know but it does vary dependent on so many factors.

They looked at statistics for teachers getting COVID over a 9 months period from March - December.
6 months of that the schools were closed!!

When you bear that in mind, rates of teachers getting COVID are high as most of the infections fell in the last 3 months but they reported them as over the whole 9 months.

Statistics can show anything the government want to promote their own agenda.

In my view police, prison officers and teachers should be top of the list after the over 50s.
It's ridiculous to argue that teachers shut in a crowded, poorly ventilated room with no social distancing for the whole day, mixing with so many children, aren't at increased risk. Of course they are.

Obese people are currently being vaccinated.

@Delatron

I thought the same *@hamstersarse*

Oh dear.

@DumplingsAndStew

So is everyone here either back to work, or going back to work? With no masks, no social distancing. You can open a window if you like, but be careful that Jane across the desk from you doesn't tell her mum it's too cold, or she'll moan to have it closed.

So an hour, and not one of the responders are back to work or going back to work with the same level of protection as in schools.

@bbn81 maybe not have week on week off rotas? So perhaps every child gets one day a week in school allowing therefore enough space for those that need to be there all the time?

I think one of the main issues is social opportunities rather than lack of education - so perhaps it would at least address that slightly? I would love my primary age kids to have some time if they could, but more for seeing others/friends than because of their education? Their school does two live meets (reg) and the rest is pre-recorded links so wonder if they could work round that somehow?

Secondary I think there are so many more options as to how to organise it - and I suspect different teachers/schools will have different needs and views on who needs to be in and why.

I don’t actually think it will be better educationally particularly but it would allow some social contact, checking in etc. I suppose that different options might suit different demographics/schools/students etc... I mean even if every child could have two days at some point (in place of remote only) we could do some fab fun/supportive stuff with them to support them and check in with them?

@WoodpileHouse

Obese people are currently being vaccinated.

No, I'm currently eating a chippy.

No vaccination invite yet.

How the fuck is wanting schools to be safe for staff and students and wanting them to remain open 'anti children'? Christ almighty...

My ecv dh has only just been vaccinated with dose 1. I go back to work with KW children in secondary on Monday with 20 in a class and no masks. 5+ hours in that same room.

If schools go back normally, I feel like I wouldn't stand a chance of not getting it and brining it home. I am not scaremongering but I already know of 7 people who have had 1 dose but then caught or had already caught covid before any effects.

Just a few days a go a teacher I know who's fit and well and in his 40s was hospitalised with it.

Nope @herecomesthsun we don’t. But arguably the ICUs are not full of ‘young and healthy’ people but people with a condition that unfortunately puts them at high risk for this virus being more serious.

The shielding list has fortunately been expanded and I think BMI over 30 has been bumped up the vaccination list. This is a good thing and should have an impact on ICU cases.

@HauntedPencil
Of course no vaccine gives 100% protection. And there are numerous reports out there, some contradictory, about the level of efficacy of one jab, a jab we still know v little about.
My initial point was, however, that we can’t assume everything will be ok in a ‘couple of weeks’ as Delatron previously stated. We need the booster to be given.
It’s a virus. There will be mutations. Scientists are expecting this to rumble on for years to come and are working on treatments for symptoms, not just vaccines.

@Delatron

Nope *@herecomesthsun* we don’t. But arguably the ICUs are not full of ‘young and healthy’ people but people with a condition that unfortunately puts them at high risk for this virus being more serious.

The shielding list has fortunately been expanded and I think BMI over 30 has been bumped up the vaccination list. This is a good thing and should have an impact on ICU cases.

We don't want the CEV people to die either (smiles sweetly)

@noblegiraffe thank you for all your hugely informative posts about schools over the last few months. As a parent of a primary aged child who has been home schooling due to safety concerns while fighting to keep my child’s school place I personally feel that community transmission rates are too high to open any schools safely including primary. I don’t feel comfortable sending my child into a bubble of 80 students who all play closely together, have poor respiratory hygiene and no real concept of any need for social distancing. Given the airborne nature of COVID it feels hugely irresponsible given the new variants to test out reopening schools with our youngest children. Our youngest children often display more subtle symptoms and due to the messaging regarding key symptoms I think many parents are unaware of the way symptoms often present in younger children meaning that spread from primary schools is often more obvious in parents. I feel that we need to wait until after Easter to allow rates to further drop and reduce the risk to both children, staff and parents. Then there need to be further safety measures in place bearing in mind that we are dealing with a more transmissible variant and no children, few teachers and very few parents will be vaccinated. Let’s hope the government finally do what is needed to make schools safer and less disrupted.

I didn’t say everything would be ok in a few weeks @Suzeyshoes
I said we should be in a better position. And I think we will be.
I don’t think most schools children will be going back then anyway.

It’s positive. The vaccinations are going well. Even quicker than we thought. And they are more effective than we thought.

I think what is missing from those stats is that many of the younger people in ICU are obese

How do you know this? Have you seen the relevant stats?

There’s only one people for make the same mistake three times and yet repeat it the fourth time.
Reopening the schools fully when most of the adult population hasn’t had the vaccine is suicide.

Did he say we will get following data not dates?!

And most of the vulnerable people have only had one dose.

We have all worked hard and stayed home not for him to mess the last crucial step just because he wants to rush things.

This is going to end up badly.

Is is going better than we thought. At one stage there was doubt if lockdown would hold it.

There are reasons to have some optimism.

*one word not people

Most of us really don't care - we prioritise our children. They need to be in school. Teachers are free to quit - there are plenty of us training to replace them.

Can’t see the government listening this time. They didn’t last time

@AledsiPad ummmm who is going to train you ?

In the nicest possible way, Aledsipad you could replace me in my classroom tomorrow... but you can't replace my experience or expertise.

I think you have the people at each extreme- overly worried and totally gung-ho. Most of us are in the middle and a lot of us as wondering whether it’s worth it for 3 weeks. I am also fed up of the blaming that goes on about ‘young people’ spreading it when most of them have accepted enormous restrictions. My worry is actually that the vaccinated will not now be careful and that will increase transmission.
I just set wish that I felt that there was someone at high level advocating for the children. Boris has obviously backed himself into a corner by saying schools will re-open first but I’d like to feel that we were making decisions based on what is right for children. The issue of children needing social time and needing education are not actually the same.