The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

[noblegiraffe]

It's being reported that the government are about to embark on a two week PR campaign claiming that schools are safe. We've already seen hints of it in that Warwick report that was widely misreported as showing schools don't fuel community transmission (majorly pissing off the author who advocates a cautious return to schools).

The ONS random sampling survey graphs released today are amazing. They show a huge reduction in the infection rates due to lockdown, but the most incredible reduction is in the infection rate of secondary school children. They've gone from being the most infected subset of the population by far, to the 2nd least (behind 70+). It's clear that despite arguments that secondary kids were catching covid out of school (sleepovers, hanging around in parks etc), this just isn't true and the lack of mitigation measures in secondary schools allowed covid to run riot.

We can't re-open in the same way as in September. That would be madness. I know that people will say that it's fine, vulnerable people are being vaccinated and kids don't get it badly BUT what is not acknowledged is that kids aren't being vaccinated, a lot of their teachers won't be by March 8th, nor their parents and so we still need to keep infection levels down. In addition, rampant covid is incredibly disruptive to education. Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess that we should be trying our best to avoid repeating. Vaccinations don't address that issue at all.

Community levels are low, but then they were low in September. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops are shut now, but we want to be able to open them. We cannot rely on community levels remaining low to stop covid getting into schools and proliferating.

We need to be careful, because certainly secondary schools aren't safe to re-open in a Big Bang gung-ho way that some are advocating, particularly with a more transmissible variant in circulation. Remember to the week before Christmas when school attendance plummeted in Kent and London? In one LA, secondary attendance was at 17%. And yet the DfE decided to threaten schools that wanted to close early to stop the spread with legal action. The schools were right, and the DfE was wrong. Gavin Williamson can't be trusted to have sensible conversations about safety, he's more interested in bully-boy tactics and setting himself up in opposition to teachers and schools.

What can be done? I think there is room to open schools in some way on March 8th. My personal preference (and I'm no spokesperson for teachers here, other opinions will vary) would be primaries back and exam years back for three weeks, then Easter can be used to examine the impact of the full primary re-opening . I'm not sure that school is such a major factor in transmission at primary as it is at secondary for various reasons, however I'm sure that my primary colleagues have their own ideas about what needs to be done there. If full primary re-opening looks untenable, then I would prefer rotas to only certain year groups in. Some school for all pupils would be better than all school for some pupils as we had last year.

Secondary is a different kettle of fish and should be treated separately. Secondaries were a massive risk for transmission. The word 'bubble' should never be used in reference to secondary schools again, as 'bubble' means a group of people who all have to isolate if one of them catches covid, which went in the bin in secondary around the end of September. There are some easy wins in secondary -
Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.
A national programme to improve ventilation.
Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).
Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks instead of trying to keep year groups in and schools open as covid works its way through - the attendance just before Christmas in some schools meant kids would have been better served educationally if they were all at home.

Home LFT testing of kids - I'm not convinced tbh, maybe in addition to above measures, but certainly not instead of them.

So if the government messaging is as it has been: schools are safe and no additional measures to contain the spread in secondary are needed then they are lying and our kids deserve a more consistent and sustainable education than they got from September.

Fingers crossed they are more sensible than we have previously seen.

Where I work (big college) they've been bigging up the lateral flow testing set up.

40 students are returning w/c Monday 22nd to do practical sessions. 8 per day as the space is small.

Testing is only available on Mondays so those coming in Tuesday to Friday won't be offered tests.

My cousin was asymptomatic. Had a lateral flow test at his work. Tested positive and was on a ventilator within 9 days. His whole family were asymptomatic but also tested positive.

If my workplace can't get it right for 40 I'm really worried about a big re-open to the 2000 or so we have enrolled

@Linearpark

We have to die of something.

Yeah, but most of us don’t want to die of Covid, before our time

Which is most unlikely as most who die of covid are elderly. Heart disease is much more likely than covid to kill you if you are middle aged.

Ha ha, bad news for me then, in my 60s, heart problems, teacher. Happily have had my first jab.

But there are younger, previously fit and healthy people who have died of Covid. I’m sure they didn’t want to.

I'm Primary and worried about having all children back in. Many primaries (not all) will not allow staff to wear masks, many of us don't have windows that can be opened, we are relying on LFT tests for staff which we know are unreliable for picking up positive cases, the children aren't tested at all, a lot of the younger children have different symptoms to the 3 that the government continue to insist are the only important ones (our positive cases in children have been where the child had cold-like symptoms). Add to that, if one bubble goes down, it can mean 6 members of staff having to self-isolate, which then impacts the school's ability to cater for KW/V children and also impacts other bubbles (because staff DO cross bubbles).

Do I have answers? No.
Am I still entitled to be anxious? Yes.

@dipdips

I would love to see an army of vaccinated oldies coming to help catch up kids education instead of swanning off on SAGA hols (bookings up massively!!) I have been shopping for the older population in our village, picking up prescriptions, moving out of the way when I see them out walking, calling to see how they are doing (all whilst homeschooling 3DC's) ....and I feel a bit let down now that they are going to have this lovely vaccinated life and we are going to be struggling on with trying to catch DC up. Before I get lampooned I don't really mean this, but I do feel so sad for the children and teenagers they have been so bloody good and they have lost so much and the teens in particular get so much criticism from society in general.

Vaccination isn't a get out of jail card though, my ecv mother has been told to continue to shield after both pfizer jabs.

@Redtulipses

Education won’t need to be disrupted if the NHS is not overwhelmed..

I think the poster meant that it won't be necessary to self isolate school bubbles because the risk to pupils and teachers is now very low, with most vulnerable people vaccinated.

At some point we will just have live with the virus and, especially the young people, build up natural immunity from fighting off the virus.

Surely not until the vaccine is approved and used for CEV children? They also deserve a safe in person education.

They do exist. I have a CEV toddler, it’s horrible not knowing when he will be able to attend a nursery and mix with other toddlers. Even the trial on children is only for children over 6.

I think it's a given that England is going to follow Scotland again. So y1-3 will return on the 8th.

In this graph the sen and nursery settings are pretty much all open.

I feel encouraged a little that Sen settings seem a little lower, not great yet though.

But the nursery transmission rates seem worryingly high.

That does concern me a bit when I think of all primary and secondary going back.

@pinkunicornwithacatonitsback

The thing that I still don't understand regarding primaries is why they cannot use community centres/church halls etc.

For example, in my village school, we have 300 pupils, split across 3 units as we have mixed year groups (1-2/3-4 and 5-6). Down the road literally a 2 min walk away is the community centre which remains shut. The other direction another 2 min walk away is the church hall.

I genuinely don't understand why the school can't be split so that years 1-2 are in the school, years 3-4 in the community centre and years 5-6 in the church hall. The teachers aren't crossing bubbles, so that helps to keep them separate.

Obviously, this is a unique situation to our particular school, but why can't these empty buildings be used? Why can't schools be investing in outdoor marquees so that learning can take place on the playground? Particularly as the weather starts to get warmer? Surely it's better to get kids having an education and finding out proactive solutions to make it happen?

The excuse always seems to be money. Why has not a single penny been invested in education whereas the magic money tree is coughing up for every other sector?

I'm aware there's going to be cities where this is difficult but there must be solutions that can happen. It very much feels a "won't" rather than a "can't"

I don’t understand why this stupid idea keeps cropping up. It’s a complete non starter. Do people really have such little Understanding of what a school is and how it works.

If you have 3 times as many school sites you will need 3 times as many reception staff, 3 x as many premises staff, 3x as many cleaners, 3xas many. Setting staff, 3xas many first aides, 3x as many toilets, 3xas many computer support staff, 3x as many managers, 3x as much security, 3x as many internet hubs, 3x as many school buses 3x as much sports and science equipment, 3x as many photocopying rooms, 3 x as many access routes, 3 x as many safety certificates for gas, electricity, fire safety, asbestos, there will be 3 x as much heating, and of course twice as many teachers. That is if we still have 30 children in each class. And as the current optimum number is standing at around 8, surely you can see that this idea is a total pointless nonsense. It’s not just the enormous time and money, it’s the fact that these people don’t exist. And what would be the pint? Basically. You want to build and staff 2 more schools for every school that already exists, and for no reason at all. There would be no benefit to doing this. You would still have exactly the same issues of Covid spread in the new premises that you have in the original premises

The only thing that is 100% certain in this thread is that nobody has changed their mind, regardless of starting position.

It is good that both sides are now better represented on these threads. It was a brave soul that dissented on here a year ago.

@Suzeyshoes the article linked to was dated 15th Jan. They have lots of new data now. It’s in the news every day..

I agree with you. Primary need to go back asap. Their suffering from the lack of socialisation is immense. My yr 7 child can actually wait a few more weeks as he speaks to his friends daily and can meet up with them on a 1:1 basis

@Linearpark

We have to die of something.

Yeah, but most of us don’t want to die of Covid, before our time

Which is most unlikely as most who die of covid are elderly. Heart disease is much more likely than covid to kill you if you are middle aged.

This study came out this week

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-million-years-life-lost-pandemic-b1804205.html

It suggests that 20.5 million years of life have been lost, directly due to coronavirus, with an average of 16 years of life per death. It gives a different perspective to that implied in your post..

Although you are right that heart disease remains a more common cause of death.

@delatron
So basically prior to mine? Must be completely out of date as you suggested mine was.
Please feel free to back up what you said with a link.

If the Big Bang happens it won't be long before the ICUs are full of unvaccinated parents and education staff

Yes, apparently (Indie Sage) over half of people in ICU with covid are younger, below the ages that will be vaccinated by the 8th March and probably much later too. Many in this age group are parents of schoolchildren.

I also wonder why the government just thinks nurses and doctors will be available to deal with the fallout of rampant infection from school-aged children through to their parents. From the sounds of it they're on their knees already, with staff vacancies and absence at record highs. Medics are human, they can't just keep on going and keep on going. At some point they will hit a wall. They've already been through two waves, quite obviously some of them will have PTSD, some have long covid.

The NHS being overwhelmed isn't just something that needs to be measured in terms of total number of patients or even in terms of beds, it's patients needing help relative to the qualified medics available. www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-nurses-coronavirus-patients-birmingham-b1797061.html

I’d definitely welcome some kind of rota/flexi schooling. It would allow all children to have some time in school. As a teacher it would probably be harder to manage in terms of workload/planning but might be doable until Easter.

I don’t know - hate all the speculation in the media. I think most parents I know would be happy with part time etc for next half term - it’s only on here I hear anyone basically say get them all back I don’t care about community as a whole!

No @Suzeyshoes yours was 15th Jan.

@herecomesthesun what a ridiculous and meaningless article

From a few days ago. It is all over the news if you read the news..

@Linearpark

Your child is missing socialisation which whilst important is not essential

What madness is this. Man is a predominantly social creature.

Yes but unless your child lives alone or is entirely ignored they are still socialising just not with their friends. The world is not going to end if they miss their friends for a few weeks. We aren't childcare. We are educators.

[quote dividedwefall]@herecomesthesun what a ridiculous and meaningless article [/quote]
indeed? how so?

Primary children imo are hidden vectors of transmission. Hidden because they often get different symptoms and have it mildly so are not tested as much as older children and adults. It appears it’s less rampant, but that’s because less children are tested with the symptoms they present. That is t to say they don’t bring it home to their families though.

Having them open as before given the new strains is ridiculous. They should be looking at rota systems, mask wearing more widely and better precautions on space and ventilation. Of course, they won’t because they don’t want to spend more money and so will start the ‘schools are safe’ mantra in the hope no one will find stats to price otherwise as they’ve not been good at collecting data that could show what they don’t want to prove.

Imo it should be exam years from 8th until Easter along with perhaps infants in primary school. They can spread more around the school for more spacing. No one enjoys this, but to be gung ho at this point risks too much for just a few extra days at school.

@dividedwefall

The only thing that is 100% certain in this thread is that nobody has changed their mind, regardless of starting position.

It is good that both sides are now better represented on these threads. It was a brave soul that dissented on here a year ago.

dissented which way?

along with perhaps infants in primary school. They can spread more around the school for more spacing

Not in infant schools they can’t!

@lonelyplanet

"I don't know what more mitigations can be put in place in primary bar rotas (and marquees) so if there are suggestions from primary teachers here, I'd love to hear ideas. I'm not being 'blasé' about primary, just looking at the data and suggesting a trial period with all in to see how it goes."

As I suggested a staggered return and rotas if things aren't looking good. I have been in school every day teaching a key worker group of about 12 who are spaced out. This feels reasonably safe. I won't feel safe spending 5 and a half hours a day in a small room with 30 children crammed in next to each other whist infection rates as high as they currently are. I'm over 50 but I don't suppose will get vaccinated until April.

And again I ask you how you think rotas will work. I can not teach half my class full time on a rota when my own child can only be in school every other week. Primary schools do not have the capacity to have half of all classes in on a week on week off rota and still look after the numerous key worker and vulnerable children who need to be in school full time.

And for all those who say school is not childcare I agree I am a teacher but before my child went to school I paid for childcare. If I could pay for childcare for me to be able to work now I would but I can't.