Predictions for boris's roadmap out of lockdown.

[Ilovegreentomatoes]

I know no one has a crystal ball but what order do you think boris will open up and in what order when he sets out his roadmap?
I was thinking obviously schools first which I'm hoping in March followed in April by non essential shops then possibly hairdressers/ beauty salons in may along with pubs/ restaurants and possibly other entertainment venues june/July as long as the vaccine program keeps on track.

For those that think the government are on some power trip re:lockdown, why? What are they gaining? Serious question.

I think that they will leave all of the secondary schools until after Easter and have selected primary from 8th March.

Pubs and restaurants I reckon May.

I just hope they take their time this time around and not undo all the hard work.

Having previously hoped primaries would start back on the 8th march, I now don't think that numbers will be low enough. Personally I'd rather hang tight for a few extra weeks than go through all this again at some point.

Boris will say mumble bumble bullshit. This much I know.

@Ilovegreentomatoes

Yes theatres and concerts probably not till next year unfortunately.

I don't get why they get left so late in the UK. Surely ticketed, seated events in large venues are far easier to enforce SD in. Israel are apparently opening events before restaurants.

As a family of 4, I'm really upset about the idea if the rule if 6 being in place throughout summer. Most of our friends are also families of 4. I can't see how it's ok for 6 people from 6 different households to meet, but not 2 households of 4. Our ability of socialise stopped not with lockdown but with the rule of 6, and the idea if finally meeting up with friends again was keeping me going.

I think at the very least the Primary schools (all classes) need to go back by 8 March. Cases have fallen quite significantly. I think I'd be ready to riot if school closures continue with cases having fallen as much as they have overall. I don't mind the rest. Schools are my absolute priority as having them closed is stressful beyond belief.

I think they'll get anything that men do open first. Competitive football and rugby (oh wait, already happening ) golf courses, pubs etc.

Anything that helps women like soft play, toddler support groups etc. will be banned for the foreseeable.

In terms of schools re opening, ALL year groups are important.

I don't have the answers, but I do know that schooling isn't just important in exam years.

I agree with the poster above that the rule of six is incredibly unfair to families as it prevents you even meeting up with one other family. It is also far less risky to have a group of eight comprised of two households than a group of six from six households.

In terms of schools I think there are drawbacks of rotas. Firstly key worker children would be in in all the time so classes would be over half and many more key workers who might not be sending children in now if their spouse is wfh would send their children in full time. Secondly the students at home would probably not be linked up to live lessons via webcam due to safeguarding so they would be left working at home without the the level of teaching they are getting now in live online lessons or lessons with a live element. If they really did have half class sizes on a rota i would be in favour but I doubt this is what would happen.

Honestly I think there are some givens. By early may we will all be in something similar to tier two. Until then slow phased approach to reopening to ensure it stays controlled as they vaccinate everyone down to group nine.

I really hope the rule if 6 is modified if it is brought back. As a family if 6 it essentially stops us from meeting anyone for the foreseeable future. As someone up thread mentioned if they didn't include under 12s that would help as teens can meet up with people easier without supervision but my younger ones have to have me and the other parents/siblings along. A two household or rule of 6 (12+) would give better flexibility for families and ultimately more compliance as we haven't seen one set of grandparents for over a year and another set us nearly that. None of us know how long we have left and this is a pretty miserable way to spend it.

Although I’m hoping exam secondary years will be in (because they need to most), I’m not sure how logistically it’ll happen with teachers also needing to simultaneously teach other Year groups that are wfh. I guess it’ll be a timetabling issue and the may be less live lessons for those still at home as a result.

My dream would be all primaries open in full on the 23rd. We are ready for them to come back now, we don’t need two weeks of preparation. This is obviously not going to happen though!

I think it’ll be R, Y1 and Y2 back on the 8th and I PRAY the rest of primary back by the end of March. I cannot do another term like this. I’ve been in teaching between 16-18 kids (often changes) every day and dealing with severe behaviour with new children in my bubble.

Everything else - I think secondaries after Easter, sadly. Non essential shops etc I don’t think will reopen until after schools. Social contact I think will be smaller than the rule of 6 and maybe limited to outdoors (not that I will probably be able to take any advantage of this anyway until my parents are vaccinated).
If I can go to a pub in any way this side of summer I will be bloody overjoyed.

www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/feb/12/englands-current-lockdown-could-be-the-last-says-neil-ferguson

This is pretty optimistic. I think the fact that teenagers spread more and affect the ability to work less means we’ll see primary schools back first. I think it will be foundation and ks1 before Easter. I’ve read other articles about it being the younger ages suffering worst effects and families with younger children having hardest time.
I have no clue what will happen with year 11s and 13s. The vast majority have been working really hard, but we just don’t have the data on then that we did in last years students. I think that Gavin Williamson is probably still veering from one shit idea to the next. Who knows which shit idea he’ll settle on? I very much doubt he’ll think to consult any actual teachers in the process.

@Nellodee agree.

It must be difficult because obviously they want to open schools first but they are probably a much bigger spreader if the virus than the hairdresser small pub or restaurant.

I think schools should open part time on a rota to ALL children with max 15 in a class, and KW children are included in that part time too. But since the government has already messed up key worker entitlement and a lot of schools are already well past 15 in a bubble this won't happen. So it will just be a free for all. And transmissions will go up again.

They got the years wrong last time - should have been reception (as the summer term sees a lot of progress and gets them ready for yr1) and year 2 as many would have been changing schools/ going to ks2 and there's is traditionally a dip in performance during this transition year! So I have no hope in them getting it right again!

In my opinion the problem with hairdressers and beauty salons is the level of VERY close contact.

When they were permitted to return open everywhere I passed was smashing out back to back appointments, often with limited or no PPE

Surely universities should open first. You cannot expect students who will end up with untold debt to carry on like this. They need to be back doing their practical courses and receiving the education they have paid for and being able to enjoy student life. It's not the same learning remotely at all. The older you are and more advanced your studies are the more direct contact you need. Next should be college studenrs. Next 16 year olds and so on. Common sense tells you that on a purely educational level it is far easier for a parent to teach a 5 year old than a 20 year old.
I know the government won't do this as the are not looking at this from a logical view point.
Open up universities then work downwards.
Let out door venues open up such as zoos.
Give theatres a chance and the arts such as museums.
Pubs have had a fair crack of the whip, give other areas a chance now.
Keep the borders closed and stop people flitting in and out of the country just because they can afford it. This includes politicians.
Stop having one rule for the rich and another for the poorer folk.

Something we noticed with the hairdressers on our local high street was none of them kept their doors open. The windows were badly fogged up with condensation and it really put me off going in.

@Lifeinaonesie

I think they'll get anything that men do open first. Competitive football and rugby (oh wait, already happening ) golf courses, pubs etc.

Anything that helps women like soft play, toddler support groups etc. will be banned for the foreseeable.

This would be funny if it wasn't so true

@Reastie

Although I’m hoping exam secondary years will be in (because they need to most), I’m not sure how logistically it’ll happen with teachers also needing to simultaneously teach other Year groups that are wfh. I guess it’ll be a timetabling issue and the may be less live lessons for those still at home as a result.

It’s easy teach 11 & 13 in classroom and then other years remotely from the classroom following normal school timetable. Our school wrote everyone yesterday saying just this.

Good point about mens sports etc first
How come football is already happening? They are not exactly social distancing on the pitch? I don’t get why they can keep going when everything else is shut down.

Don't get your hopes up about universities. I'm a lecturer and all discussions at present are for planning online teaching in the new academic year (October). Staff are horrified by this but university are adamant they need to assume that's how it will be

[quote Katie517]@ifonly4 they have already stated that hairdressers and beauty will not be last this time due to low transmission rates and all the PPE/ booking slots. Same with gyms and swimming.[/quote]
I really hope this is true.

My ds is a swimmer as trains umpteen times a week.

Despite covid being in schools and some swimmers having to isolate it was never passed on in the pool. We heard chlorine kills it so it's possible it also kills the droplets in the air by the splashing! Also leisure centres have good filtering systems already.