Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Dumb question maybe, and possibly asked before many times, but does zero Covid literally mean zero? Or is it more of an aim/ideal?

Impossible to have literally zero because of illegal immigrants, asymptomatic ppl who evade quarantine etc, so more of an ideal I think.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56012869

%of carers vaccinated not at all on target...

I think zero Covid may be held up as ideal step towards global eradication.

Coz you know, humanity has managed to eradicate so many previous diseases. Like Smallpox and SARS and... oh wait. Maybe not after all.

So then if not global eradication, Zero Covid seems to be an ideal for a small number of countries that are (sort of) managing to achieve it so far. Like NZ and ... er, Isle of Man? Some little places in South Pacific that NZ protects and some Carribean islands, too. They will have to keep their borders closed forever to keep Zero Covid strategy going. Maybe that's considered a price worth paying. It is price never paid before to keep out flu or TB, but I guess the world has gone mad changed from what I was used to.

Genomics for Dummies.

Interesting interview with the head of the Covid Genomics U.K. Consortium (COG), Professor Sharon Peacock, on new variants and genomic sequencing.
www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/p096mc5k

Starts just over 10 minutes in at 10:25 (10 minutes 25 seconds).

Useful advice on masks, research:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-masks-idUSKBN2AA28O?utmcampaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utmmmedium=trueAnthem&utmsource=facebook&fbclid=IwAR0LizSFahsNfgoEMnGjF1STGq9kSCiaZWVDGW0Aq8r1ARtxDm-dfpf3uMs

@JanFebAnyMonth
A few weeks ago I found some double sided body tape at the bottom of a drawer and amended a mask to seal properly. Given how the tape was there for probs 3 years or more when I tried to take it down it tore half my face off. But at least my glasses really didn't fog up with every breath I took :)
I might actually buy a new tape and try it out.
Ideal would be something that you can put on from a small tube - like when you waterproof the sink. Tried that too, but it has some form of acetate and irritates the skin. I do wonder though if there is some glue-like silicone out there that could be used?

Micropore surgical tape works to seal the mask. I wear glasses, and have used it

Zero Covid is not really the goal, in the same way that a pianist might never recreate a piece perfectly, it is an aim. It means Covid is so low that identifying and isolating with good support are eminently possible. An annually tweaked vaccine, rules but not locking down travel and care taken to effectively identify and treat potential cases should mean life returns to normal. In order to achieve this the numbers need to be suppressed down to almost zero within a territory. All the zero seekers are saying test test trace trace isolate isolate! Many in the UK can not afford to isolate and this together with governmental hubris is our Achilles heel.

I heard, well half heard, a discussion about double masking yesterday and there seemed to be concerns about how often they would be changed, thus weakening their potential effect.

I can see that for some people a combination of masks or a cloth mask with a disposable, frequently changed, filter could be a solution.

I’ve just bought an anti fog wipe for my glasses which seemed to work well during a brief supermarket shop yesterday. I’m going to try it at work later.

Test, trace, isolate & treat I hope.

While it is a mild illness for many, effective therapies for those who have more severe illness are also a way out.

An annually tweaked vaccine, rules but not locking down travel...

"Not locking down travel" and an annual vaccine is mitigation, not zero covid.

All the "zero covid" proponents agree that the UK borders need to be kept close for an extended period of time. This is something which I personally find absolutely unworkable.

Even if we stop tourism and business travel, we will still have issues of (i) the Irish border and (ii) freight. On average, 10,000 lorries pass the port of Dover daily. Do we really think we will be able to identify and isolate every single source of infection? Doesn't sound very practical.

Irish border is a separate topic which is equally complicated (as we know from the Brexit negotiations saga).

Mitigation/maximum mitigation strategy is a pragmatic solution given the UK geographical position and level of connectivity to the continent. "Zero covid", in my personal opinion, is an unattainable goal.

I think the reality is that we are going to get a manageable situation through a combination of infection, suppression, treatment and vaccination. The balance depends on vaccine efficacy and uptake, on mutations, advances in treatment etc. Zero covid people want the suppression aspect front and centre and find infection unacceptable. However, infection is an unfortunate reality whether or not it’s a policy, and suppression is very hard, however many times you shout “New Zealand!”. So Zero Covid is basically a way to signal virtue. Good luck to them!

@PurpleWh1teGreen

I heard, well half heard, a discussion about double masking yesterday and there seemed to be concerns about how often they would be changed, thus weakening their potential effect.

I can see that for some people a combination of masks or a cloth mask with a disposable, frequently changed, filter could be a solution.

I’ve just bought an anti fog wipe for my glasses which seemed to work well during a brief supermarket shop yesterday. I’m going to try it at work later.

I'd be interested if you find it works well, I don't have an issue with masks but my husband could moan in an Olympic event when his glasses steam up.

I’m someone that has read up extensively on masks and believes in airborne spread etc. and has tried to preach it to others. Yet I must confess I’ve been wearing the same dirty ill fitting mask for a week, as I usually do, following no guidance about touching, neck wearing etc. I know I should probably get some new ones, but they are expensive and I can’t choose. It’s partly because I rarely go in places - I usually just wear it where required outside, where the impact will be minimal. I did it right last time I went to a hospital. But still. I am quite sure I am not the only one doing this. Any surveys been done on mask wearing habits? Not sure how you work to change these things.

I bought triple layer white cotton masks. If I've been out I just put the mask in a small bowl I keep by the sink with hot water, squirt of washing up liquid and a dash of bleach. At the end of the day I rinse it in hot water and hang it up to dry. By morning it is ready to use. I don't know if I'd be more inclined to rewear masks if I was out every day but at the moment I wouldn't feel comfortable wearing a mask for more than one day, bit like changing underwear.

The only downside to my method is that the combination of boiling water and bleach did ruin the eleastic after a while so I had to replace it.

It depends what you're doing with the mask. A mask that is put on/ off with clean hands and left to air for a day between uses won't actually have covid on it. You might get bacteria if you don't wash it much, but you'd need a fair few wears for that!
I wear a lighter masks for outside too. The indoor ones fit well enough to leave marks and are used for the hospital / supermarket, that seems like overkill for collecting DS from nursery outside in the playground where people rarely come within 2m for more than a second.

I've got mostly very thin, double layer cotton masks for popping in and out of shops which get left in the car, and washed occasionally. I do have a thicker one, made by a local lady, which is three layers, and actually really nice. She claims that in research, her choice of layers, a thick cotton, then silk, then brushed cotton, is the ideal filter. I do feel safer in it!

Zero Covid and low-level Covid are completely different things though in terms of how you live with them. Zero Covid would allow life completely as normal (as they have in NZ currently) but requires completely closed borders. Low levels of Covid don't really require strict border control, but do require continual levels of social distancing, which can only be relaxed in proportion to the proportion of the population who are immune (either via vaccination or having had it)

I agree that this is utterly impossible for the UK to go for a zero Covid approach for all the reasons that have already been stated - Irish border, reliance on food from abroad, illegal immigration, and the fact that it's already here - the level of lockdown you'd need to drive infections to zero is very different from just driving them low.

But the policy at the moment appears muddled. We appear to be trying to go for a zero-new-strain approach, though this seems badly thought though to me - the SA strain is clearly here already. We cannot easily spot cases of new strains as symptoms are the same and genetic sequencing takes time. And surely we should have leaned from last year that viruses don't only travel to the UK direct from the counties where they're dominant (China last year, South Africa this year) but indirectly via other countries (Italy last year, who knows where this year).

The only solution to new strains I can see is to tweak vaccines, and do it quickly.

Can anyone on this fab thread tell me - are the figures looking good or not at the moment?

@Snowsnowglorioussnow

Can anyone on this fab thread tell me - are the figures looking good or not at the moment?

Matter of perspective I think. They're great when you consider where we were a few weeks ago, but terrible compared with July.

Beginning of January we were getting approximately 60k new cases a day.
Now last week we had approximately 120k over 7 days. So that's great.

In July we had weeks where we had less than 5k a week.
Now last week on average we had around 18k a day.

So we're doing better than we were, but not out of the woods yet. And with the speed it can come up, if restrictions are relaxed, especially if there's a new variant that doesn't respond to the vaccine, it could shoot up again very quickly.

Margaret, thank you .

Indeed, it's the speed at which all our gains can potentially be lost that has surprised and depressed me, tbh. I'm really hoping vaccines permanently change this.

@uncomfortablydumb53

Micropore surgical tape works to seal the mask. I wear glasses, and have used it

That's a good idea. I'm so sick of fogged vision and that is at least meant to go on skin.

Although the figures aren't showing anything obvious, I am looking at the fall rates in deaths and cases. I'm convinced that they are falling at a faster rate than the first lockdown which was stricter and in summer. So hopefully early signs that the vaccine is working.