Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I think one of the problems is that people who believe themselves most at risk will also be the first to voluntarily place themselves under wider restrictions than the law may require. So the timings in different groups are likely to be different even outside of lockdown and vaccine effects.

@sirfredfredgeorge

I think one of the problems is that people who believe themselves most at risk will also be the first to voluntarily place themselves under wider restrictions than the law may require. So the timings in different groups are likely to be different even outside of lockdown and vaccine effects.

That's true. And it's also the case that lockdowns affect different age groups differently - working people, young adult pub-going ages and school aged children have had their contacts greatly reduced in the recent lockdown, whereas little changed for healthy pensioners who weren't going out much anyway or living with others who did, nor for the very old and frail whose contact with others is mainly via recieving care, so didn't change with lockdown. So it's quite likely that the fall we see in the older age groups is largely vaccine led and less lockdown led than the fall in younger age groups.

Does it look like it will be age next for under 50s then?

In uk i think the deaths of older people will naturally have peaked so many days after xmas anyway. As that was their big exposure so not sure it's the vaccine though obviously care homes or hospital in patients. So maybe data on just those groups. If the vax arent working maybe another small peak after mothers day for eg

.

@HSHorror

Does it look like it will be age next for under 50s then?

That was the proposal when they met to discuss about two weeks ago.

@HSHorror

Does it look like it will be age next for under 50s then?

That's what's been recommended. I think the government is very likely to go with what's recommended as it's a lot easier politically than pitching job roles against each other and sorting the practicalities of something much more complex. And it'll save lives and pressure on hospitals - people in their 40s will have kids at school and others they live with so can't avoid all risk even if they aren't keyworkers.

STOP PRESS

The latest weekly NHS England stats file for vaccinations now includes a breakdown of jabs by

council

msoa

parlaimentary constituency

The opening post should have the link

Are the deaths falling faster than cases did three weeks ago, or whatever the time lag is, or are they faster than expected, IYSWIM? I seem to remember cases falling by close to 30% for a while but not sure if they quite got that high. Of course now it's more like 15%.

Are 50-59 in one big group?

I think group 8 is 55-59 and group 9 is 50-54?

Positive cases 8,523 - last Friday 12,027
Deaths 345 - last Friday 533

Most recent hospital admissions data - 1,117 on 22 February - compared to 1,501 on 15 February

@boys3

STOP PRESS

The latest weekly NHS England stats file for vaccinations now includes a breakdown of jabs by

council

msoa

parlaimentary constituency

The opening post should have the link

Awesome! :) What doesn't help though is the inconsistency of age bands. This is not the first report that has diff age bands than eg general population data.... but, oh well...

anecdata
the differences between councils became obvious today. Had to talk to school form undermaster. The issue -that I whined about already- is that although I'm cv, I'm in the lowest group. He asked would our views be different if I got the jab, and I replied that it's going to happen somewhere late summer, so not relevant to this conversation.

He was truly amazed. He lives in Kingston, so only one borough over, has no medical conditions, no high bmi and is late forties (so only few years older than me). He will be getting his jab some time in the next 2 weeks. I'm happy for him, of course. But it does feel like a post code lottery at this point....

UK Covid cases today down 29% from Friday last week. Daily cases now down 84% from the peak, seven weeks ago. Hospitalizations down 67%, deaths down 71%.

Great numbers

He was truly amazed. He lives in Kingston, so only one borough over, has no medical conditions, no high bmi and is late forties (so only few years older than me). He will be getting his jab some time in the next 2 weeks

Given I pretty much resemble that individual, I think there's more to it, the Kingston vaccination place hasn't been vaccinating anyone for a couple of weeks, although they restarted today, so clearly the number of people is different per borough, but there must be something different about the individual as I know lots of late 40's and 50's men in Kingston and none have been vaccinated, or invited to book. So I suspect there is something a bit deeper as to why he was invited, even if it was a mistake.

More positive numbers out today as several have already highlighted.

specimen date wise in England

Thursday 25th

First day of reporting 1194 cases added, usual day 1 caveat but 23% lower than last week’s 1555

Wednesday 24th

4722 cases added taking total after two days to 6163.

Equivalent last week 6688 added with a two day total of 8409.

This week therefore nearly 27% lower.

Tuesday 22nd

Third day of reporting 1121 cases added taking total to 7952.

equivalent last week 1453 cases added and a total of 10419.

This week still close to 24% lower so far.

Monday 22nd

Fourth day of reporting, 222 cases added, total 9872, still on track to end up just below the five figure mark.

Remains 20% lower than last week.

This week starting Mon 22nd has added just over 25,000 cases so far. Equivalent last week over 32,500, so 23% decline this week at the moment.

Seven day average in England marginally over 9,000 cases, 83% lower than the start of January.

Some perspective still needed as while this week in England (mon-sun) likely to see around 50,000 cases added likely another week needed to get below the c40,000 recorded in the week ending 27 Sep, and some way from the c.8000 in the first week of Sep.

Nevertheless with hospitalisation and deaths coming down and not too far from 20 million first jabs it would be churlish to see the overall picture as anything other than positive.

With regards to case numbers by specimen date. The last two weekends have been 8k more or less, with weekday numbers around 10/11k. Is this down to higher LFT testing during the week in schools and other workplaces?

Beautiful numbers today!

@BigWoollyJumpers

With regards to case numbers by specimen date. The last two weekends have been 8k more or less, with weekday numbers around 10/11k. Is this down to higher LFT testing during the week in schools and other workplaces?

I’d suggest that the impact of lateral flow tests is relatively limited.

Just taking England recently they have represented 60% to 65% of pillar 2 tests, with a positivity rate of between 0.3% to 0.4%. Irrespective of the introduction of ramped up LFT volumes weekends have always had lower case numbers.

That said the distribution of LFTs and associated confirmed cases across the week would be interesting to confirm one way or another.

@sirfredfredgeorge
do you think being a teacher would factor in? Otherwise it has to be a mistake (based on his words of no conditions).
I actually do think that given how schools open very soon teachers/staff should be done next week.

I suspect that some GP records aren't always accurate, so some people may be on record as group 6 even though they shouldn't be. Some people may also have health conditions that put them in group 6 that they don't want to talk about, so I'd be a bit cautious about concluding why anyone you know has been vaccinated.

@AnyFucker

Great numbers

Must be good to get words from AF

The numbers look good to me too - especially with the detail from @boys3, which is always very appreciated - but looking at the press coverage of the press conference earlier (I didn't watch the actual thing) they seem to be placing a lot of emphasis on the areas with rising numbers and the possibility of the current trend reversing. I don't know how far this is a tactic to get people to comply for this final period, but JVT saying that it could still all be lost has made me feel a bit more gloomy after feeling very positive today (largely because we have lovely sunshine here - the weather does make such a difference, doesn't it?!)