Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@JanFebAnyMonth

I've been invited and for my vex booked for Sat, even though am only 50-55, non-vulnerable. Is this a mistake, am beginning to wonder? Have spoke to 2 similarly banded neighbours and they haven't heard anything.

Our local centre (GP surgery) was one of the very first places to start and I was just assuming they're still ahead of most?

Similar to me, I’m mid 40s, no underlying conditions that I know of apart from pre diabetic and have been invited for my jab on Saturday, bit worried it’s a mistake!

I'm happy to hear of speed in some areas! DH's asthma is problematic, but seems it isn't bad enough to be group 6 so he was getting very low spirited. He asked when he'd be done and I said "a week next Thursday", which had him ever so merry for a couple of days until he worked out I was just joking. I've said now that it's mid-March actually and he's happy again. I hope lots more vaccines get rolled out soon...!

I've heard on another Mumsnet thread that having had gestational diabetes puts you higher up on the list - could it be that?

Great to hear so many vaccinations are happening and numbers of cases declining Light at the end of the tunnel!

Moderna 'S. Africa variant-specific' vaccine now ready for testing/trials according to an announcement from the company.

The company says it has produced enough of its variant-specific candidate vaccine, called mRNA-1273.351 to begin testing it in people.

Good news @CoffeeandCroissant !

No GD or anything which I can think of. Oh apart from two broken wrists when a child, there was something about fractures wasn't there (according to the thread on the new shielding group last week) - taken as a proxy for osteoporosis I think - I hadn't thought of that?!?!

Glad to hear of someone even younger than me booked for Sat too!

Certainly haven't had a shielding text! 😆

I had my initial dose two weeks ago for which I’m grateful as from March 8th I’ll be back in the classroom face to face with adults for prolonged periods (6 hrs per day with the same people, over 4 days). At my age (67) I’m far more at risk from them than they are from me, but at least by then I should have about 75% protection. Have managed to book the second dose on March 9th via GP app. That’ll be interesting as I felt fairly rough for 24 hours after the first one, and it’s my most intensive day the day afterwards.

Hello everyone, I really enjoy reading this thread, and I wonder if someone could explain something to me. Regarding vaccine effectiveness, that refers to preventing severe illness right? As far as I can tell no one has died of CV who has been vaccinated (?), does this mean they are practically 100% effective against death? I have tried googling it but couldn’t find any answers. Thanks v much.

We are awaiting large scale data.

This has just come out "The Pfizer vaccine provides strong protection against Covid symptoms and severe disease after two doses but markedly lower protection after a single dose, the first large-scale peer-reviewed study of the real-world effectiveness of the vaccine has found.

Separate survey data published by the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) found that for those over 80 who had received just a single dose of the Pfizer vaccine blood antibodies were relatively low at 34.7 per cent.

The study by Israel's Clalit Research Institute was conducted in collaboration with researchers from Harvard University and published in the prestigious New England Journal of Medicine on Tuesday night.

It found two doses of the Pfizer vaccine reduced symptomatic Covid-19 by 94 per cent and severe disease by 92 per cent. A single dose reduced symptomatic Covid-19 by 57 per cent and severe disease by 62 per cent after three weeks. "

I think they need big numbers over time to look at deaths.

The IFR is around 1% in the developed world, and if the vaccines reduce severe illness by over 90% then only a tiny fraction of people are at risk of dying after vaccination.

Which is actually great.

@Justjoinedforthis

Hello everyone, I really enjoy reading this thread, and I wonder if someone could explain something to me. Regarding vaccine effectiveness, that refers to preventing severe illness right? As far as I can tell no one has died of CV who has been vaccinated (?), does this mean they are practically 100% effective against death? I have tried googling it but couldn’t find any answers. Thanks v much.

Hospitalisations have been very low from all vaccines, so deaths are lower still. We'll all still die eventually though. Taken at the level of billions being vaccinated the proportion dying with covid should be become very low, but there will be a proportion of people who won't get full immunity; when coupled with a range of other conditions and old age some of them will die. Whether and which deaths are actually related to their covid infection will come down to a doctor's judgement ultimately. People do just die; as an example, a very small number have died within initial weeks of being vaccinated, it's logged on the yellow card scheme to verify there isn't any possibility it's linked to getting the vaccine (thankfully considered statistically improbable). Over time people may also get some reduction in antibody response, variants may escape some immunity, people get chemo and lose all immunity; that will ultimately lead to illnesses. So it's likely that the reduction in deaths will stay very high, but 100% protection against deaths isn't an achievable target for any vaccine or medication.

Do you think there is much chance that they will chance the Pfizer dosage schedule in the UK back to something closer to 3 weeks? I think some countries have gone to 6 weeks. If the protection is that low after 1 dose, then it seems vital to get on with the second very soon or the lockdown won't end the way they are hoping.

the numbers from the different studies seem so different. I know some of it is because one study was most in the over 80s and the others are reflecting whole populations, but still such differences, from 50%-95% protection after one dose in different reports. They do mostly seem to think that after 2 doses things are better, though over 80s might still be low.

UK bought 40m Pfizer, so enough for 20m people, but we now know a booster is needed in autumn so it's only enough for 13,333,333 people. 7.5m Pfizer doses by 7th Feb, so probably over 10m given now. I would assess its coming to the end of the run by early March and time to switch to second doses only then in any event.
As to the usefulness, from the Public Health Scotland study Pfizer proved almost as effective after one dose at preventing hospitalization 84% as Oxford AZ 95%; evidence of vastly reduced transmission at 70% is also fantastic. So I think the JCVI strategy is still correct to protect as many vulnerable with a first dose as possible and then double back with second doses, but vaccine numbers means the double-back will happen more quickly for Pfizer.

MRex - Under the PH Scotland paper, Pfizer was less effective in later weeks, which I found surprising and a bit worrying.

I hope so. I'm booked for Pfizer tomorrow. I wanted it for the chance that it might be more effective against variants, as if there is any chance I might be able to see all my family abroad, it will mean long haul flights and airports before I might otherwise choose to encounter them, so any even possible protection I could get against random other variants is good.

But if it's less effective later on, I do hope they get on with the second doses.

Do you mean a third booster in the autumn?

i'm also worried about my mum in her 80s, as she is having Pfizer in a couple of weeks - that is all that they are using right now where she is.

All the spike vaccines Pfizer, Oxford AZ and Moderna have said they are preparing variant boosters for autumn, primarily addressing E484K immune escape from SA and Brazil variants. All 3 are still expected to prevent severe disease and hospitalisation but more mild/ moderate covid cases will still occur; none have had a full trial with a rampant variant of this type so they don't have results that can be relied upon. Novovax and Janssen vaccines are the ones that had decent trial results in the high 60s-70s% with SA variant. Moderna's variant booster is going into trials this week and there's a chance that people who got any vaccine will get the first available booster if mixed vaccine trials are successful and there's a pressing need or advantage to mix and match. It actually doesn't matter in the UK right now because Kent variant is the one to worry about as well as reducing/ removing the severe disease risk from any variant, so better to be happy and grateful to get Pfizer, then take your booster when it comes.

And again, they are creating the perfect circumstances for growing numbers and variants:
"It will not be compulsory for school pupils to take Covid tests twice a week, nor wear face coverings in class, the schools minister Nick Gibb has confirmed."
Have they learnt nothing?

Re:vacc. It's great that so many ppl are getting it, but I don't see them looking out into the world and taking specialist advice on board. I was looking through what is recommended for IBD patients across the globe and it hurts how UK doesn't give a shit about this part of the population :( In most countries I'd be in the low end of the priority groups with a flag to get any mRNA vacc. Here: nothing.
And I'm sure that there are many other conditions that only affect a small pop size that have been forgotten....

In most countries I'd be in the low end of the priority groups with a flag to get any mRNA vacc. Here: nothing.

I can understand why this feels unfair and upsetting, but I guess the good news is that you'll actually probably still get vaccinated quicker in the UK than you would in many other countries even if you were in the priority list but not at the top of it, on current pace/projections?

@Hardbackwriter
yes and no.

1. maybe quicker, but with not the recommended vaccine.
2. maybe quicker, but because of the timings only a much less effective protection. Again, can't form an opinion atm because of not enough data.
3. That "maybe quicker" still means sometime sept according to the calculator...

Don't think I have to "worry" about which one I'll being given in the next weeks... :(

To be fair I'm hoping that P. can ramp up their production enough by the autumn to be able to supply pharmacies/private buyers and then we'll get it that way. Also by Nov our son -hypothetically- could also get the P. jab.

In totally off topic news now that we are almost at the end, here is a cute kitten to cheer everyone up :)
(got her 2 weeks ago, still getting familiar with each other)

almost at the end....
I meant of this thread

got her 2 weeks ago

I read that as "got her's 2 weeks ago" and wondered when they'd started doing the pet jabs.

She is very cute though.

Aww, she's gorgeous @TheSunIsStillShining! I also had a new arrival a couple of weeks ago...

Omg congratulations!! Xxxxx

Congratulations!