Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Congrats!

Both photos are super cute!

Thank you, but that was a proper thread derail, sorry! Does it bring it more on topic for the thread if I note that my waters broke unexpectedly while I was watching Johnson do the vaccination update press conference?!

Congratulations @Hardbackwriter and @TheSunIsStillShining both super cute!

@Hardbackwriter
OMG - Congrats!!! :) You upped me! Much better addition to a family!

Awww, newborn kittens and babies are always delightful. A particularly pretty kitten too. And you have lovely hands @Hardbackwriter!

On data, I just had a look at yesterday's numbers and EU rates are up a little. France on 31,519 then Czechia 15,815. Does anyone know if there's a special reason for them each being so high (Czechia population only 10.7m) or if it's growing R values?

Czechoslovakia only partially reopened schools, have restrictions and I don't think they have had a national holiday recently. Common suspects are out. So basically no idea.

They've had both cases in Czechia for ages, they didn't drop much from the January peak just bobbing at 8k or so per day, this looks like a third peak starting, a really big one: www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/czech-republic/.

*high cases not both

All I can speculate is that it's the Kent variant having a particular strong effect due to their higher population density. But then why not Belgium as before?

@MRex

UK bought 40m Pfizer, so enough for 20m people, but we now know a booster is needed in autumn so it's only enough for 13,333,333 people. 7.5m Pfizer doses by 7th Feb, so probably over 10m given now. I would assess its coming to the end of the run by early March and time to switch to second doses only then in any event. As to the usefulness, from the Public Health Scotland study Pfizer proved almost as effective after one dose at preventing hospitalization 84% as Oxford AZ 95%; evidence of vastly reduced transmission at 70% is also fantastic. So I think the JCVI strategy is still correct to protect as many vulnerable with a first dose as possible and then double back with second doses, but vaccine numbers means the double-back will happen more quickly for Pfizer.

The boosters will not be part of the initial 40m doses. They are variant boosters, so will be needed to be ordered in addition. They will form part of the plan going forward, where everyone may need boosters every year or twice a year to deal with new variants, rather like flu vaccines.

Pfizer are just now starting their booster trials. They will be trialling a third dose of the current vaccine in order to test the safety of a third dose, and are about to start trials of boosters that are specifically modified for variants of 'concern'.

Weird thing is that Czech R. has supposedly closed it's borders* end of jan. On the other hand they have everything open almost.
Their parliament and gov will be debating a 3 week total lockdown today. As in everything but pharmacies, food shops and hospitals will be closed, people will only be able to travel within their region and only for work/doctor's app.
Parliament is quite apprehensive about the extension of the emergency powers and will only allow another 4 weeks if ministers give proper proof of why it's needed (quite obvious and they do say so) and how they will use these powers.

Their other issue is the slow vaccination effort, because they can't get supplies. Afaik they only have contract with P. and P. manufacturing issues had a huge impact.

*it's tricky for them as there are more than 60k czechs who go to work to DE daily. And they had to show negative antibody test every 2 days.
By now the germans actually closed their borders to them totally.
Also their "close the borders" has so many exceptions that an ementaler cheese has less.....

ps. sorry for the czechoslovakia part, to me it's still that :)

@Hardbackwriter and @TheSunIsStillShining congrats on both of your new family members.

I've booked DH in for his first vaccination tomorrow at 8am 🥳 - someone cancelled, apparently. I just need to remember to set the alarm - It's the Ox/AZ one.
Actually, the lovely receptionist said they had quite a few cancellations to fill - so if in doubt, ring your surgery and check.

Positive cases 9,985 - last Thursday 12,057
Deaths 323 - last Thursday 454

Most recent figures for Hospital admissions 1,142 (21/02) compared to 1,532 (14/02)

Of these important indicators, deaths are falling fastest. Vaccine effect?

Vaccines are picking up again, yay!

Case numbers seem to be slowing down if not flattening. Why?

Ie Monday cases seem to have a tendency to revert to Friday numbers after low weekend numbers, and then drop further during the week. However, this Monday they were actually a bit higher than Friday.

Specimen dates in England.

wednesday 24th

First day of reporting 1441 cases, 16% fewer than the equivalent day last week which had 1721. Usual caveats though for the first day’s figure.

Tuesday 23rd

Day two of reporting adding 5498 cases and taking total to 6831.

Equivalent day last week added 6889 to give a two day total of 8966.

This week almost 24% lower at the moment.

Monday 22nd

Third day of reporting with 1364 cases added taking total so far to 9650.

Equivalent last week added 1672 cases to take total to 12053.

This week therefore just about 20% down.

Last week the fourth and fifth days of reporting added jointly a further 365 cases. Assuming this week’s rate of decline continues Monday 22nd should still come out just under the 10,000 mark.

Weekend

Little change both days still just over 10% lower than the previous week.

I don't think it's flattening yet. Slowing down definitely, but this week, other than Monday has been under 10k, last week all except Monday and Friday were over 10k.
Scotland does look like it is flattening, but the other nations I'd say are still falling.

Re vaccinations - according to my vaccinator friend, not enough people were invited for jabs over the weekend and even with the reduced vaccine supply there was still spare capacity and available vaccines in some of the larger vaccination centres (at least, in London).

The formal cut off age for online vaccination booking has now been reduced to 60 so, hopefully, it should help.

Is there any point in 'showing up' / putting yourself forward for a spare vaccine etc if you're under 50 and have no health issues? I have assumed not up to this point but now wondering..?
We are not too far from a mass centre but the local GPs have been excellent too and have said they are creating their own 'standby' lists but not sure if all the hints and tips locally re putting yourself forward for any spare are on top of all this...

@Quarantino I guess it depends on the centre - I helped out at one last week, several people passing asked about coming back at the end of the day for spare vaccines, and were told (by a member of staff) that the surgery have a list maintained for next eligible for leftovers so not to come back on the off chance of a spare vaccine. Some people did come and hang around, none were successful, and it was rather awkward, but I don’t blame anyone for trying, and it seems people have been successful at other sites.

Thanks lurker! Probably not worth bothering yet, and happy for everyone else to go ahead, as long as the centre/gp is efficiently using the vaccines available!

From ICNARC

based on 31,000 ICU patients

• 28% of those most at risk of intensive care have been vaccinated ( groups 1-4 )

• This will increase to 85% once groups 1-9 are done

• Most of the rest are men in their 40s who will be covered next if JCVI advice is followed

Via mobile.twitter.com/Smyth_Chris/status/1364976062657134600 (lightly edited for clarity).

@PuzzledObserver

I do think it's the effect of the vaccine. It ties in with the data from Israel which has reported a significant reduction in severe infections and death.

The effect on transmissibility is still unknown.

Illustrates why all those people saying that we should have opened up everything / gone back to normal after groups 1 to 4 had been vaccinated, were (wrongly) focusing only on deaths and ignoring the fact that ICU could still be overwhelmed.

@PuzzledObserver

Of these important indicators, deaths are falling fastest. Vaccine effect?

From statistician David Spiegelhalter, on twitter.

mobile.twitter.com/d_spiegel/status/1364976264591904769