Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Looking at the dashboard, the rate of decline in cases seems to be slowing but also the number of tests has dropped. Do they cancel each other out?

Seems to be a levelling off of cases in Scotland, compared to steady declines in England and Wales?

mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1363207658170384396

So glad you are back @littleowl1 and that everything is fine! My area now has rising cases :(. Rather worrying while we are still in lockdown - hoping it is just a blip.

Update on performance of England hospital trusts from March 2020 to 9th Feb 2021 from www.england.nhs.uk stats.

Sheffield Teaching Hos
King's College Hos
Guy's and St Thomas'
Newcastle Hos
Manchester Uni

...are the top 5 best performing covid 19 hospitals out of 124.

Would be very interesting to know from people on the ground if these hospitals have any different protocols which could account for their success.

Huge range of rate per 1000 beddays.

I'm quite worried about my region - North East Lincolnshire. Cases have been mostly rising for quite a while now. We seem to have a bigger list of rising cases on LittleOwl's Covid Messenger, and a lot of them seem to be in Lincolnshire. I'm feeling pretty anxious about everything opening up in a couple of weeks.

Any theories why we're seeing the fairly consistent rises? I think we're still lower than we were when this lockdown started, but we've definitely been on the up for a good while now.

I think Lincolnshire was one of the areas that's overall been least affected by Covid. That will mean there are fewer people who've had it so less natural immunity among the population, making it harder to keep the R rate down. Not having been hit so hard may also mean there are more people who dismiss Covid and take less care to avoid catching it as they who don't know anyone who's been very ill with it or died.

@CherryBlossomOsaka

Update on performance of England hospital trusts from March 2020 to 9th Feb 2021 from www.england.nhs.uk stats.

Sheffield Teaching Hos
King's College Hos
Guy's and St Thomas'
Newcastle Hos
Manchester Uni

...are the top 5 best performing covid 19 hospitals out of 124.

Would be very interesting to know from people on the ground if these hospitals have any different protocols which could account for their success.

Huge range of rate per 1000 beddays.

I think it's going to be about other factors not just protocol.

We had locally someone did a comparison on hospitals and said how much better one hospital was doing. Was then pointed out to them that that hospital only had covid cases if they came in with something else and happened to test positive on the way in. Any who actually needed treatment for covid were (sensibly) passed back to the other hospitals that had the resources to deal with covid patients who were ill with it.

You've also got things like buildings (2 nearest hospitals to my parents one still has wards of 20+ other is no more than 6 in a ward) and local demographics-age, prior health issues etc.

Actually I don't agree that Lincs and the Humber has been least affected. Rates in the area were sky high in October/ November when all was hunky dory in the south east.
@NameChangeBingo I live near there and I've noticed those figures creeping up. I can see no obvious explanation, no outbreak in a factory or prison that would account for it and some areas in quite rural parts of Lincolnshire have stayed stubbornly high through lockdown

Hull was certainly previously massively affected. It was at the epicentre of the schools' row before Greenwich.

Lincoln could be the Royal Anglian Regiment, as they are providing a lot of the mobile covid support?
www.royalanglianregiment.com/news/poachers-involved-with-covid19-pop-up-test-locations/

Just checked the data on the dashboard and NE Lincs does have lower than the uk average for both cases and deaths across the whole of the pandemic. It's not the lowest area, so I guess this doesn't fully explain why it should be struggling to keep the R low more than some other areas, but it is definitely an area that's been less hit then average.

@CherryBlossomOsaka - do you have a direct link to that table please? (Sorry, it's a bit fuzzy.)

Sorry the list is embedded here:
twitter.com/AnalyticsFast/status/1361362105996357635

I see Hancock has said that around another 12 cases of the SA variant have been found, and that all of those cases have led to surge testing and detailed T&T.

But, I'm wondering, has the % of positive tests samples which are sequenced increased at all nationally? Or is it still just 10%?

Because if it is, that 12 doesn't mean a huge amount and certainly doesn't mean what the media are reporting it to mean.

Asked if the spread of the South Africa variant was "shrinking", he said: "I think that's a good summary yes" writes BBC News. Hmmm....

9834 cases

215 deaths

18462 in hospital

All moving in the right direction

Plus 17,582,121 first dose vaccinations so far

@boys3

9834 cases

215 deaths

18462 in hospital

All moving in the right direction

Plus 17,582,121 first dose vaccinations so far

❤

It’s still dropping, which is good, but rate of drop is reducing in England. Should we be concerned?
It is positive that:
It is still reducing
Deaths are still reducing at a good rate

It looks like there is much regional disparity, the south a higher rate of reduction each week than the north.

twitter.com/bristoliver/status/1363520133583536133?s=21

And graph...

@JanFeb. They reported a couple of weeks ago that they'd found about 150 SA variant cases out of about 15,000 that they'd sequenced. I assume this must have been over about 10 days or so if they're sequencing about 15% of all positive cases. Now they're saying they've found another 12. If that's out of a further 15,000 that they have sequenced more recently then it's terrific news and suggests they really are getting on top of the SA variant. But it's a bit hard to tell without knowing how many it's out of - if it's 12 a day out 100 then we're in trouble! They're not just sequencing at random but also targeting the positive tests that they find in the areas with the surge testing, so that further muddies the waters in terms of monitoring rates.

.

Spec dates in England

Sat 20th

1047 as compared with 1347 last week

Fri 19th

Day two of reporting 5173 cases added taking total so far to 6405

Just under 25% lower than the 8503 for the equivalent point last week

Thurs 18th

1781 added taking three day total to 9242.

Close to 14% lower than the 10731 at the equivalent point last week

weds 17th

Day four of reporting 282 cases added taking total to 9856.

Close to 16% lower than the 11706 at the equivalent point last week

The seven day average to the 17th in England is tantalisingly just above 10,000, at 10,044, 21% lower than the 7 day average on 10th Feb.

Tues 16th

Day five of reporting. 81 cases added, taking total to 10775. Still 11% lower than equivalent point last week.

Cases for the week starting Monday 15th just under 50,000 at the moment in England. So likely to end up around the 65,000 mark, as compared with 75,000 last week.

To put 65,000 into context the week ending 4th October had 70,231 cases, but the week prior to that had 39,950. The first week of September in England had 15312 cases.

From Sky News:
"Asked if he meant the number of cases of the South African and Brazilian variants in the UK was falling, Mr Hancock replied: "Yes, I do and we've published the data on this so everybody will be able to see that.""

Does anyone know where this data is published please?

I've found this:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

There certainly is some disparities in the fall. Taking just those 50,000 cases with spec date from Monday onwards and comparing it to the exact same time frame for the previous week.

England overall down 14.6%.

However

South West which already has the lowest rate of cases for any region has fallen by another 26%.

London down 23.5%

South east down 16.6% and North West* (generally considered as being in the north) down 16.2%

east of England down 15.8%

Then

North East down 14.5%

West Mids down 12.9%

A bit of a gap then to

East Midlands down 7.3%, and

Yorkshire and Humber down 2%

Taking the last two regions still further variation. In the east mids

Derbyshire down 15.6%, so better than the England rate (just)

Notts down 7.1%

Lincs down 6.0%

Northamptonshire down 2.7%

Leicestershire down 2.5%

Derby itself down 15.9%

Leicester down 2%

Nottingham down 18.5%

Rutland given its tiny population is an administrative irrelevance, where the 105% increase is a bit meaningless - 86 as compared to 42 cases. Lingering prison outbreak perhaps.

In Yorks and Humber

North Yorkshire down 12.1%

Barnsley down 1.2%

Bradford up 5.6%

Calderdale down 4.3%

Doncaster down 8.2%

East Riding up 12.5%

Hull down 8%

Kirklees down 2%

Leeds up 2.6%

North East Lincolnshire up 3.8%

North Lincolnshire down 5.9%

Rotherham down 18.9%

Sheffield up 3.8%

Wakefield up 0.4%

York down 16.8%

@ancientgran what are you putting in the water down there in Devon? And it is not time to share more widely?

No cases recorded in

north Devon on 7th Feb

South Hams on 11th and 14th Feb

Torridge 6th Feb, 9th Feb, 16th Feb

West Devon 6th Feb, 12th Feb, 13th Feb, 16th Feb, plus 18th Feb although with a three day lag that might change.

The only other council in England that has managed it recently as far as I can see is Mole Valley in Surrey, on 13th Feb