Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Of the England cases, to 0.5 looking like the Kent variant there were 0.3 where viral load was too low to tell. As discussed last time, a large proportion of these people may well be excreting old virus but are not currently infectious and more likely were infectious at last month's test. That would reduce the real infection rates identified by ONS, by anything in the region of 0-37.5%. Their estimate of how many were infected with covid that week could be reduced by 180,500 in England which exceeds their confidence interval 3-fold.
I love the ONS dearly, but I lost faith in this report and wish they'd consider the impact of including results from those who were positive last month.

Positive cases 12,027 - last Friday 15,144
Deaths 533 - last Friday 758

Hi folks, just a quick note to offer apologies to anyone who noticed www.covidmessenger.com wasn't updated last night and the emails were not sent this morning.

I've just had power switched back on after 29 hours!!! I'm blooming freezing!!!

Apparently an underground cable was accidentally cut at a building site nearby.

We are still not "back on the grid" but have a generator running in the garden to get the lights back on!!!!

Poor soul who cut the cable must be in mega trouble! Half the neighbourhood is running on generators!!!

Anyway, I am in the process of updating the website and the emails will resume as usual tomorrow morning.

thanks for the update @littleowl1 and take care x

@littleowl1 glad you're okay, I was a bit worried when we didn't get the emails either! Don't worry about it, and hope all gets sorted soon.

Thank goodness you’re ok @littleowl1, you’re part of my daily routine and I was worried about you!

Littleowl1 is reminding me of the day at work when over the town radio we heard the lovely words:

"Workmen have gone through the gas pipe. Can someone bring duct tape quickly?"

We were very glad that we were the other side of town.

spec date wise in England

Thursday 18th

1555 added today, 1496 last week. First day of reporting though so little if anything can be concluded from that

Wednesday 17th

6688 cases added today as compared with 8372 equivalent time last week.

After two day’s reporting this Wednesday 8409 vs 9948 last week, so like for like 15% lower this week

Tuesday 16th

1453 cases added today vs 2576 last week

After three days this Tuesday stands at 10419 vs 11769 last week, so around 11% lower

Monday 15th

302 cases added today vs 634 last week

Monday after four days stands at 12355 vs 13768 last week, so around 10% lower

This week so far 32738 confirmed cases as opposed to 36981 cases at the same point last week so around 11% fall so far.

Go back to the equivalent point a further week back and at this point 52928 cases.

Thanks, boys3, 10-11% down is not bad. Sounds like we are still on the right track.

Hopefully, things will get even better with the warmer weather.

I can’t quite get my head around the ons of 481,000 ?? Have I misunderstood it . In a week?

@Notmulan - people can test positive over a long period of time. They are retesting previous positives and declaring them again, I don't understand why.

This thread is probably a wee bit anecdoty but there are some interesting nuggets in here about what is happening elsewhere in Europe and the world with B117 and B1351:
mobile.twitter.com/KlimaZen/status/1362595816259657736

At last, a pretty poo report! Even if it is only for Marseille, thank you @ATieLikeRichardGere!

The Finland variant now then. Hmm. Delightfully, it evades PCR tests, so I'm not sure how they found any cases never mind 450 of them. They don't know where it came from, but are presuming not Finland.
www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/finland-new-covid-19-strain-may-not-show-up-on-tests/2149931

Re Finland's discovered variant: the total of GB/SA/Brazilian variant cases is 5 less than their stated total of variant cases, so presumably they mean 5 cases of the new variant have been found.

As you say, goodness knows how though!

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-scientists-warn-against-lifting-lockdown-too-soon-virus-always-has-mutation-as-a-weapon-12219986?fbclid=IwAR2TX6gan5YCQjyWOiXyQ7S5mJ7qkHKVrw265PvlUse2ZeH9888z9ZN7aA4

Worrying account of virus observed mutating hugely within days.

Page 2 of the Times today may chime with some:

Can't link to it but a summary : SAGE ina report authored by JVT are calling for the govt to stop just focusing on deaths and mortality rates. They are concerned about high rate of complications for people admitted to hospital with Covid , especially given these are younger people, often with no prior health conditions (this is often a very circular argument on MN!) Young people are less likely to die but are proportionality more likely to survive and live with complications. This contradicts current narratives that covid is only dangerous in people with existing co morbidity and the elderly. It is increasingly important to dispel these idea, they said, warning policy makers that regarding this groups as 'low risk' based on reduced likelihood of mortality may not take into account ...long term consequences.

A quarter of patients who experienced complications were less able to care for themselves at discharge than they were before compared to 11.9% who had no complications.

A separate SAGE study based on 50000 discharged patients found that 30% required readmission within 140 days and 12% died.

10406 cases, 445 deaths

According to covid messenger, the number of councils with rising numbers has gone up quite a lot today (26 and 4 unchanged). It had gone down to single figures last week.

England spec dates.

Friday 19th

1232 added, first day of reporting, equivalent last week 1659

Thursday 18th

5906 added taking two day total to 7461

Equivalent last week 8007 added and two day total of 9503. So this week 21% lower at the moment.

Wednesday 17th

1165 added, taking total to 9574.

Last week equivalent 1589 added and three day total 11537. This week 17% lower at the moment.

Good chance this Wednesday may end up once fully reported just below the 10,000 mark.

Tuesday 16th

275 cases added taking four day total to 10694.

Equivalent last week 293 added and four day total 12062. So this week just over 11% down.

Would hope that next Tuesday will be below 10,000; and ideally around or below the 9000 mark

Monday 15th

87 cases added taking total to 12442.

equivalent last week totalled 13844. So this week 10% lower as compared with that.

A variety of dribs and drabs added to Monday 8th so that now stands at 13925

@lonelyplanet

According to covid messenger, the number of councils with rising numbers has gone up quite a lot today (26 and 4 unchanged). It had gone down to single figures last week.

I would guess it's a sign of the fall plateauing.

A good number of the rises are a matter of a very small change. If things are steadying down, then you'd expect to get ups and downs with small numbers either way.

That makes sense, thank you.

@lonelyplanet

According to covid messenger, the number of councils with rising numbers has gone up quite a lot today (26 and 4 unchanged). It had gone down to single figures last week.

That does however highlight the risk of drawing too many conclusions from two data points.

Winchester shows an increase. It is up one case between those two 7 day periods. Taking the five days as reported for w/c Monday it has 30 cases with those spec dates at the equivalent point for the previous week it had 58 cases.

A similar cases could be made for several more, however by no means all of them.

10 of the 26 are East Midlands, with eight evenly split between Lincolnshire and Leicestershire districts. Then another 4 in Yorks and Humber region, and 3 in the North East

Possibly the ones to be more concerned about are those where the falls since lockdown 3 started have been way slower than that for England overall. So the likes, in the 26, of Charnwood; North West Leicestershire; Bury; Doncaster and Tameside

Yes that makes sense too. Peterborough looks a worry on this last count too.

Just looking a bit more widely based on the latest 7 day rate to 15th Feb 129 councils in England have a higher rate as compared to that at the start of December at the end of lockdown 2.

This does of course include the likes of Cornwall, whose current rate is now below 40 per 100,000 ( as compared with just over 20 in early December). So some context and perspective is needed.

Interestingly of the 129

Zero in London

15 in East of England

26 in East Midlands (so two thirds)

7 in North east (most therefore)

27 in North West

17 in south east

8 in south west

20 west mids

9 in Yorks Humber

That's interesting boys. The areas with the the most councils with increases appear to be those who were in tier 3 after lockdown 2.