Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Thanks for your analysis again, boys3, and congratulations on getting vaccinated!:)

@wintertravel1980

Thanks for your analysis again, boys3, and congratulations on getting vaccinated!:)

thanks winter, and mrex earlier :)

Anecdote only vaccine side effect clearly as anecdote really has no place on a thread purportedly focused on data

Vaccine centre next to a PCR testing site. Testing site completely empty, and several very bored looking staff.

New pre-print study conducted by Pfizer and Israel's Health Ministry:
mobile.twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1362414282097516545

[quote CoffeeandCroissant]New pre-print study conducted by Pfizer and Israel's Health Ministry:
mobile.twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1362414282097516545[/quote]
Thanks for that. The percentage protection against infection, hospitalisation and death are all pretty similar. Does that mean then that for around 90-95% of people the vaccine complete works, and for the other 5-10% it doesn't work at all?

Some similar data I saw on the Oxford one suggested these figures were more different - so around 30% could still catch (and presumably transmit) Covid, but almost zero were hospitalised or died, suggesting that the vaccine gives partial protection to almost everyone.

Vaccine centre next to a PCR testing site

When they did that here, without very good signage either, you do wonder if getting the most vulnerable members to covid to the same place as the people most likely to have covid was a great idea.

Unlikely to make much odds if the testing centre is empty like now, but ours had that set up first week of Jan!

Testing site completely empty, and several very bored looking staff.
I'd love for them to stay really really bored.

@MRex

Testing site completely empty, and several very bored looking staff. I'd love for them to stay really really bored.

I think I'd rather we made better use of the huge amount of spare PCR testing capacity and started testing 100% of close contacts, as well possibly as people with a wider range of symptoms. Seems wasteful when we know it's the most accurate form of testing.

Is @littleowl1 OK? No COVIDmessenger emails yet and website says last updated 17 Feb?

Fireflies - the numbers hospitalised in all the studies were very low in both placebo and vaccine groups, so may be too early to tell.

@Firefliess - many people take a negative test result as meaning no chance of infection, testing contacts could be problematic. Increased surge testing is great though.

@Teachingmymonster
I came on to ask the same.

Hope she's OK.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56110232

Imperial report on samples from London Transport - probably worth trying to find original report as this article isn't totally clear about what it showed/what conclusions might be drawn!

@sirfredfredgeorge

Vaccine centre next to a PCR testing site

When they did that here, without very good signage either, you do wonder if getting the most vulnerable members to covid to the same place as the people most likely to have covid was a great idea.

Unlikely to make much odds if the testing centre is empty like now, but ours had that set up first week of Jan!

Let me allay your concerns sirfred at least in terms of where I went

Large, easily accessed site with sports centre home to vaccination with its own large and separate car park, sports stadium not used for anything but providing a large physical demarcation, and testing located in a completely separate car park the other side of the stadium. Lots of signage and marshalls to ensure people get to the right place.

[quote MRex]@Firefliess - many people take a negative test result as meaning no chance of infection, testing contacts could be problematic. Increased surge testing is great though.[/quote]
Testing all contacts a week after having had contact would be good though. Those who are negative might end their isolation a day or two sooner than otherwise, but we'd pick up almost all of those who are positive and they'd then hopefully isolate for a further 10 days.

increased surge testing is great though

Agree.

Reporting however could be improved, or rather made more publicly transparent. At the moment all these are lumped in as pillar 2 PCR. Given the positivity for normal PCR Pillar 2 and surge PCR pillar 2 will be very different it would be great if alongside the P2 overall PCR figures a breakdown was then provided between symptomatic and surge numbers and results.

Although that said the public dashboard does not provide a breakdown between pillar 2 PCR and LFT results, or taking a further step back the cases and positivity split between Pillar 1 and Pillar 2 PCR tests either.

Given that LFD tests made up over 50% of tests last week.....

but we'd pick up almost all of those who are positive and they'd then hopefully isolate for a further 10 days

So what exactly is the motivation for them to test, if you're going to change 10days isolation until 17?

@sirfredfredgeorge

but we'd pick up almost all of those who are positive and they'd then hopefully isolate for a further 10 days

So what exactly is the motivation for them to test, if you're going to change 10days isolation until 17?

I think the motivation might be that they hope they'll get out a day or two early if negative. And for most people that's what would happen.

But I do believe that most people don't want to risk infecting those they work with or might be in contact with, so would isolate for longer if they knew they were actually positive.

Weekly ONS results look pretty good (although it was expected - the ONS runs until Feb 12th).

Cases dropped across all age groups and all regions.

Contrary to the REACT findings, younger children are very far from being the second most infected group. The prevalence in the Age 2 to School Year 6" population group is 0.7% vs 0.9% in "Age 25 to 34" and 1% in "Age 35 to 49".

Can't remember, what date did REACT run to, think it was similar?

.

The latest REACT was for 10 days ending February 13th so it was a similar period.

REACT sample is less representative than ONS because they rely solely on volunteers. ONS offers incentives for participation and they try to capture people who would have otherwise not been willing to get tested.

MHRA report update: www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting#annex-1-vaccine-analysis-print

"As of 7 February, an estimated 7.5 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 5 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine, had been administered, and around 0.5 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered."
31st Jan report was 6m Pfizer and 3m Oxford, so that week had 1.5m Pfizer and 2m Oxford vaccines.

Very slightly higher yellow card reports now for Oxford proportionally, the trials had indicated more side effects with Oxford first dose and Pfizer second dose, so maybe expected.
"24,207 Yellow Cards have been reported for the Pfizer/BioNTech.
20,428 have been reported for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine."

Couldn’t see that the ONS report had been linked (although has been talked about)
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/19february2021

Cases per ONS higher than React, at 1 in 115 vs 1 in 200

(That should say for England)