Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

This article is two years old, but just popped up as I was searching for something else. Didn't know where else to post, but just thought posters on here might find it interesting and prescient.

www.bbc.com/future/article/20181101-the-mystery-viruses-far-worse-than-flu

That article is pretty near the mark for two years ago!

Thanks for that article @BigWoollyJumpers - equally fascinating and nightmare fuel in the current situation

The latest from Mark Graham, a King’s College researcher working on Zoe app:

Yep, seems like vaccine-induced side effects are inflating our incidence estimates, we'll fix this in the coming days. Correcting for this stops the recent rise in e.g. Scotland, but looks like the rate of decline may still be slowing.

Thanks @wintertravel1980. So long as the PCR testing continues to evidence a decline then that’s still encouraging.

I’m right in presuming we’d see a slow down in the decline at around this point anyway aren’t I? The virus will still be circulating through the areas that are open (workplaces etc.) and there are still some particularly stubborn areas that have been struggling to get their case numbers on a downwards trend for a while.

Cases 12,057 - last Thursday 13,494
Deaths 454 - last Thursday 678

England’s specimen dates for the cases added today.

Wednesday 17th

Day 1 of reporting 1721 cases, equivalent last week 1576, again first day so no conclusions should be made. If we were to go back to the equivalent two weeks ago there were 2419 cases.

Tuesday 16th

6889 cases added taking total after 2 days to 8966

Equivalent last week was 7606 cases added, and a two day total of 9193.

The two day total in the week prior to that was 14532

So this week’s numbers down shy of 3% at the moment.

Monday 15th

1672 cases added today, taking three day total to 12053.

Equivalent last week added 2176 cases, taking total after 3 days for last Monday to 13134.

So close to a 9% fall based on the first three reported days.

Sunday and Saturday not much added, so both look to be in the region of at least a 25% fall.

Thanks @boys3 That does look like levelling off doesn't it? And it's not entirely clear why - there have been no relaxations to lockdown rules at all, and the growing proportion of vaccinated people ought to mean cases start falling faster, not slower. The only explanation I can see is lockdown fatigue particularly among those who've maybe had the vaccine. Last time we thought that was during the November lockdown and it turned out to be the new strain, but that was quite a localised issue clearly running against the trend in Essex and East London. I can't see any obvious areas that are spiking now - more that there are some in the Midlands and North where the current restrictions seem only ever to have been just enough to hold the R at round about 1. And the big falls in London can't go on forever.

@Firefliess there are a myriad of sins below the surface. The next few days should give a sense of whether it is a more general slowing. At the moment.

The council area I live in was not excessively high when lockdown started. But our reduction has been akin to a toddler bumping down the stairs on its bottom.

So pause then a decent drop for a week, then largely pauses for a week before plucking up courage for another big step down, then another pause for about a week, then another drop.

Maybe a slightly odd analogy but that could be due to me being pfizered a few hours ago

The reduced rate of decrease is a concern.
Twitter’s Rp131 does great analysis of cases by specimen date by region. It seems London/South are reducing nicely, but Midlands/North have slowed.

coviddatashare.s3-eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/Addition/Addition_20210218.html

Apologies for an England-centric view there; NI, Scotland and Wales reductions are similarly slowing. That is a concern as my expectation was the vaccine impact would start increasing the rate of decline, is it behaviour?

Also rp131- vaccine % by area, all v positive.

twitter.com/rp131/status/1362445814438768652?s=21

Scientist on R4 PM (female, but didn't catch name or institution) said it's to soon to be concerned about the slow down, keep an eye on it. Could be due to surge testing. 🤷🏻‍♀️

French scientist (Christine?) now on R4 talking about English variant.... something about increasing isolation from 7 (they cut it in late autumn iirc) back to 10 days again.....

I wonder if the recent cold weather had anything to do with it, especially as the virus seems to travel better in cold air (I’m thinking of the food prep environment examples). I don’t know enough about the areas experiencing rises/slower decline to ponder it much further.

Too early for lots of clandestine Valentine hook ups to affect the numbers ()?

@JanFebAnyMonth

French scientist (Christine?) now on R4 talking about English variant.... something about increasing isolation from 7 (they cut it in late autumn iirc) back to 10 days again.....

Did she say why they aren't locking down yet? It seems odd with their cases rising steadily.

Congratulations @boys3!!

Sorry I think she said something but I didn't catch it. Emphasised the curfew even in the absence of any open bars and eateries.

[quote Juo]A small study done of the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine against the SA strain seems to show a reduction of two thirds in neutralising the virus.

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc210201[/quote]
There is this lab study too, it was announced on Sunday by the lab, but the preprint was only published today (there is always a delay between submission to the server and publication). (BNT162b2 = Pfizer vaccine and mRNA-1273 = Moderna vaccine.)

Study: www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.14.21251704v1

Twitter thread for context: mobile.twitter.com/BalazsLab/status/1361038393015209985

Of greatest concern, we find that three different variants of B.1.351 show very significant resistance to neutralization by vaccinee sera. About half of our samples exhibited potency below the limit of our assay.

So what does this mean?

First, off, let me be very clear that our findings need to be replicated by other groups. This is a pre-print and has not yet undergone peer review. We might be missing something important that other scientists will point out to us.

Even if this is all correct, it doesn't mean that vaccines won't keep us safe. There is a lot more going on than just serum neutralization when you get vaccinated. It's entirely plausible that the existing vaccines will keep us from developing severe #COVID19.

What you should take away from this work is that we need to remain vigilant when it comes to SARS-CoV-2 evolution and that vaccine developers should be on the lookout for mutations that might lead to escape. We should also increase genomic surveillance efforts worldwide!

So perhaps a better way of understanding the decline is to compare the position as reported today just for Monday to Wednesday specimen dates as compared with what was reported last Thursday for the equivalent three days as reported to that point

Monday to Wednesday spec dates this week has seen 22619 cases confirmed in England, with this being where council area also confirmed.

Equivalent last week was 23759, so the current week as reported is almost 5% lower.

Starting with regions

London down 22%

South West down 18%

North West down 9%

West Mids down 6%

South East down 5%

North east flat, down less than 1%

Yorks and Humber up 3%

East of England up 5%

East mids up 15%

Hereafter need to take the percentages with a slight pinch of salt given relatively smaller case numbers even at upper tier council level.

Starting with county areas,

Suffolk up 52% ( case wise though 122 this week vs 80 last week, hence some perspective needed.

Leicestershire and Norfolk both up 39%

A bit of a drop then to

Essex, Lincolnshire and Worcestershire all up around 16%

Oxfordshire up 10% and Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire up 9%

Conversely

Gloucestershire down 42%

East Sussex down 29%

West Sussex and Surrey both down 20%

Cumbria down 17%

Staffs down 13%, Herts down 12%

Devon down 9%

The rest are up or down by less than 5%

Unitaries, Mets and just picking up on some of the bigger percentage changes

Rutland and Herefordshire more than doubled, case increase for perspective though is 33 and 41 respectively

Hartlepool up 75%

Southampton up 38%

Middlesbrough up 36%

Southend, Redbridge, East Riding, Luton all up by just over 30%

Leicester, Doncaster, South Tyneside all around 26% up

Coventry, Bradford, Medway, MK, West Berks, Swindon all up between 16 and 18%

Bury, Sandwell, Nottingham, Plymouth, Rochdale, Tameside, Blackpool, Slough all up between 11% and 14% - again context needed as several single figures in terms of actual case numbers

At the other end of the scale

Bromley and Islington both over 50% down

Bath, Ealing, Knowsley, Hammersmith all between 43 and 47% down

Merton, Brent, Lewisham, Tower Hamlets, Walsall all 36% to 39% down

York, Warrington, Cornwall , Bristol, enfield, IOW, Westminster between 30% and 35% down

Halton, NE Lincs, Wilstshire, Thurrock, Oldham, Central Beds, Richmond, Windsor, Torbay, Greenwich, Harrow, Haringey, Blackburn, York all down between 20% and 29%

Another 16 down between 15% and 19%, and 13 more at least 10% down

Thanks for that breakdown @boys3

So I found
qrisk.org/three/index.php
which is a similar calculator to the COVID one, but which gives me the risk of having a heart attack in the next 10 years, heart attacks aren't necessarily fatal of course, so not a direct comparison with the covid risk, but I think relevant as the main protections for a heart attack are things which are difficult for many to do during lock down, and are nearly impossible for most shielders.

My risk of dieing with covid is 0.2% in the next 10 years even if we assume each of the 90 days is independent (ie the proportion of risk which is from recovering from infection isn't removed as I carry immunity) in reality it would be considerably less than that as I would likely have some immunity if infected.

But my risk of a heart attack is 2.6%, so I'm at least 10 times more at risk from a heart attack than covid, it really shows how very important keeping active (not doing the 150 minutes a week government guidance increase risk 75%) and maintaining a healthy weight.

I think Rutland increase largely due to a prison outbreak and similar happening in Bedford.

Maybe the reason why "mask wearing is like a vaccination" (OK, said by an American scientist, iirc, before any vaccines were available!):

https://www.dailysabah.com/life/health/humidity-in-masks-protects-against-covid-19-study-suggests?fbclid=IwAR0oQHZ8m5AWAz5-DNYskefEKeqjGocmZFeYjnlEj2rhAPGhh_hKPbwtcyk