Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Zoe does distinguish between first & second doses of the vaccines

I also find it plausible that bad reactions to AZ in Germany could have a psychosomatic element!

In the Times today about doses being thrown away in prisons MRex. 80 doses chucked. Not sure why as DH has paper but why they can't just do other prisoners/staff is beyond me.

It's behind a firewall, can you tackle him for the paper? I'm considered saying "fight", but that might be going a bit far.

I meant to post this yesterday which is fairly reassuring on variants.

Also another view of the relatively synchronised peaks across countries/continents

Sorry @ATieLikeRichardGere, I meant to reply to that.

1. mathematically those curves are not similar,
2. lots of countries went into another lockdown on similar timeframes (due to fright at suddenly doing a bit of genome testing after UK said "hey look at this")
3. northern hemisphere shares winter weather, in the case of UK/EU we also share variants.

And the latest REACT study which I don’t think has been posted yet puts R at 0.72 spiral.imperial.ac.uk/bitstream/10044/1/86126/2/react1_r9_interim_preprint.pdf

@MRex thanks. You’ll have no arguments from me, and those are similar to the explanations I suggested, though wondering if you can elaborate on them as not being mathematically similar.

That is quite positive re the SA variant in particular @ATie. Seems to suggest that they've found a smaller proportion of SA strain cases in their most recent analysis than they did previously (15 compared with 13,114 UK strain, whereas previous figures were presumably 202 SA compared with 59,079) And that's in spite of significant surge testing which I assume involves sequencing the cases most likely to be SA.

The gradient is different on all of them, look how steep for Ireland and lots of undulations on others. The UK had two peaks for the two lockdowns, which can be clearly aligned with lockdown dates. I could probably think up more mathematically accurate descriptions if you're super keen, but those who seek out conspiracy theories won't listen anyway so I'm saving us both time by not doing that.

Re the similarity between different countries. The graph looks to me to show very little similarity during the autumn. They were rising and falling at different times. What we see in all of them shown is a peak around Christmas and a fall since then. But these are all countries where Christmas is a big thing, and so I think it's a common cause in all of them, as well as news about new strains sparking lockdowns everywhere during January. People who've looked at previous charts like those and tried to argue they show natural burn out of the epidemic have been badly wrong in the past

.

He has gone for shower so no tackling required. Will look now.

So, what is happening is, even in prisons, they are sticking rigidly it seems to JCVI . So, doses are being sent to prisons, but too many it would seem. A 'source' then said that they are instructed to bin extra doses rather than try to vaccinate more of the population. This was in the context of an article suggesting mass vaccinations for prison populations is a good idea. Which it plainly is!

specimen date recent comparison for England

Tuesday 16th Feb

2077 cases added yesterday in the first day of reporting. This compares with 1587 added at the equivalent time last week. So whilst a higher number this week I would not draw any hasty conclusions, especially if test results are coming through more quickly.

Monday 15th

2941 added on reporting day 1 and then another 7440 added yesterday, taking Mondays total so far to 10381.

The equivalent for last week is 2631 added on day 1, and 8327 on the second day of reporting giving a total after 2 days of 10958. So at the moment and based on just two days of figures this Monday is just over 5% down.

Last Thursday a further 2176 cases were added to the Monday figure. Last Monday has ended up as 13906, as compared with 20170 for the prior Monday, and 27189 for the one before that.

Given where we currently are this Monday will not be seeing a percentage fall in line with that for the past few weeks. But should still show a fall of some sort.

Sunday 14th

787 cases added yesterday taking three day total to 7271

Equivalent last week 941 cases added giving a three day total of 9720

Saturday 13th

333 added yesterday to give a four day total of 7537

Equivalent last week 455 added and a four day total of 10252

Friday 12th

After 5 days so over 99% complete stands at 10521?as compared with 14004 for the previous Friday and 19722 for the one before that.

@Piggywaspushed

So, what is happening is, even in prisons, they are sticking rigidly it seems to JCVI . So, doses are being sent to prisons, but too many it would seem. A 'source' then said that they are instructed to bin extra doses rather than try to vaccinate more of the population. This was in the context of an article suggesting mass vaccinations for prison populations is a good idea. Which it plainly is!

I hate anonymous sources, it could just as easily be one place doing the wrong thing with the leader of the idiocy complaining and everywhere else was sensible. I've never seen anything except to try to use them up, in the priority order as far as possible. It sounds like a fairly quick and easy statement from Hancock would sort that out.

Our local vaccination centre has issued a letter telling people not to turn up on the off chance there are spare vaccines-apparently they were getting a number of people trying each day. They say they rarely have spare vaccines as they have a spare list who are contacted towards the end of the day if they have spare-and they're getting almost everyone turning up anyway.

I found it quite heartening. People are wanting the injection-far lower rate of no-shows than normal, and people turning up with hope to get it.

Yes, I did wonder MRex if it was ridiculous bureaucracy. I imagine prisons to be rather bureaucratic institutions.

So ONS has gone from 1 in 65 to 1 in 200 in 2-3 infection cycles, let's assume it's 3, which means you need an R of 0.68, that's lower than suggested elsewhere and I'd say it's more like 2 and half infection cycles over 14 days (it depends when you infect of course, but I think 4-5 days post contact is not unreasonable)

These ONS stats just seem weird, my view is the 1 in 65 was too high rather than this weeks results being too low.

Has ONS released? They are usually on Fridays? Or are you talking about the REACT figures?

Sorry yes, you're right, it was REACT, I actually thought it was Friday and assumed!

It looked at the time as if the previous React study was too high, compared with other sources which all showed a clear decline in cases by that time. So I think the fall that they're now seeing probably took place in reality a bit sooner, and also more gradually than their data alone shows - possibly due to last time's study picking up older infections from the peak that were slow to clear, or possibly just within the parameters of sampling error.

All the ONS results are 1-2 weeks behind the current time, mind you, so not looking at the current situation.

I think we are coming down from very high numbers. ONS and REACT were not producing very many figures over Christmas/ New Year but the figures we have suggest high levels of infection, borne out by the death numbers that followed.

The current figures of 1 in 200 apparently are around the level we had in late September (SAGE had by then started asking for a short lockdown to address this). So there's an improvement but there's also quite a way to go, especially if there are thoughts of reopening schools, alongside the emergence of new more infectious strains.

It's still good news about the reduction in numbers though.

Thanks a lot, boys3.

Zoe’s daily rate has gone up very slightly once again so the real time specimen date comparison will be particularly interesting over next few days. Looks like we are still on the right track but this week should tell us more.

A small study done of the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine against the SA strain seems to show a reduction of two thirds in neutralising the virus.

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc210201