Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@Paddy1234 - 294,061 PCR tests, 488,578 total tests. So just under 200k lateral flow tests included. You can check the figures here daily: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing.

I think (and hope) that overall tests numbers have dropped because cases are plummeting. The drops look too evenly distributed for anything else.

MRex do you happen to know if pcr and lateral flow are separated in the reportingof cases?

When is the next Ons due? It would be super to see age distribution now

Study on impact of reopening schools on the reproduction number. Not yet peered reviewed.
cmmid.github.io/topics/covid19/comix-schools.html

@Notmulan

When is the next Ons due? It would be super to see age distribution now

Friday.

@everythingthelighttouches - 5.9% PCR positivity is listed as the 7-day rate if you look under England and check "data" for the chart, so it could be worked out as PCR making up 92,687 positive cases from the last 7 days to 12th Feb. But then the cases for those 7 days for England only comes to 80,364... So, yeah. There's miscounting of England's positivity percentage by not de-duplicating multiple positive tests. Unless I've got something badly wrong. Can someone tell me what I did wrong before I look daft reporting it to the dashboard please?

Weekly reports here give the positivity rate: www.gov.uk/government/news/weekly-national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-published.
It looks on the page 5 graph as 3.5-4% overall but dropped below 3% this week by my calculations. Page 6 splits positivity, again hard to read but looks like 7% PCR (fits with dashboard a few days back as it's been dropping steadily) and 0.5% LFT. Worth people noting that the surge testing is all PCR tests so that they can genome test for the variants.

So yeah, long story short it's 0.5% give or take.

I really dont understand why they were treated differently to schools

@Jenasaurus it might not have been on this thread but someone posted that it’s because they’re private businesses and would go under if they had to shut so childcare for many parents would disappear overnight.

on schools, from today/guardian

"Amid speculation about when and how schools would reopen to all pupils, it emerged that masks will be compulsory outside classroom bubbles in secondary schools where social distancing is not possible. Previously it has been left to the discretion of head teachers.

The government is also pinning its hopes on managing outbreaks of the virus at schools with mass use of repeat lateral flow tests, with the first three tests for pupils conducted in school when they return after lockdown, before switching to home tests."

It looks like they are again missing the point.
Why is it so hard to

• make masks mandatory all the time
• rotas
• forget the lfts... it's easier and quicker to flip a coin and the results is just as accurate....

WTF are these “classroom bubbles” and who in God’s name thinks they actually exist in real life anywhere apart from a few unusual locations if they exist at all.

Classroom bubbles! They don't exist at secondary. We mostly have them in years 7 and 8 but then they set for maths and split into different foreign languages and are in different PE and DT groups...

I am assuming that just means masks in corridors as per previously.

Can't see them being enforced in social areas at breaktimes... which in my school is up to 400 students in a far too small unventilated space.

A non school related comment on masks.

ECDC have recently published an updated review on mask effectiveness.

www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/covid-19-face-masks-community-first-update.pdf

In summary, they are now estimating masks have got "small to moderate" impact on virus spread based on "low to moderate" evidence.

They are still recommending masks (especially for indoor settings) but they are downplaying their importance in comparison to summer of 2020 when quite a few scientists (especially in the US) viewed masks as the ultimate solution to the covid problem.

My son’s school have had masks in all lessons and communal areas since September.

And on Zoe "early warning" indicators and potential regional spikes:

• Reported cases in Scotland are actually up week on week (803 reported on 10/2 vs 1,121 reported today, 17/2)
• The trajectory in other regions highlighted by Zoe (e.g. North East, East Midlands) might also be problematic although it is too early to draw conclusions. It will be useful to compare Mon to Mon numbers by the date of specimen when the info for 15/2 is complete.
• London and South seem to be falling (in line with Zoe).

In other words, Zoe may indeed be picking up plateauing of cases in a number of regions. Hopefully, it is temporary weather related glitch.

If cases in Scotland continue going up or stop falling, let us remember - the problem is not schools.

That’s interesting from the ECDC on masks. Meanwhile the US CDC has decided to promote double masks etc.

Thank you very much indeed MRex

I’ve been pondering total quoted (or otherwise subdivided) pcr positivity rate and how that will change as the rate of symptomatic people go down and Potentially surge testing goes up.

I’ve also been thinking about whether the government will produce separate numbers for positive cases from LFT post-Easter, when the vast number of tests will be LFT compared to PCR.

Was having a bit of discussion on another thread about the oft misquoted Spiegelhalter false positives paradigm.

There have been a lot of reports about very high levels of side effects with the Astra Zenecca vaccine in Europe, e.g. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/astrazeneca-s-covid-19-vaccines-are-going-unused-in-germany . The side effects are apparently bad enough 25% of staff had to take time off, and they have had to reschedule / cancel clinics to avoid staff shortages.

I haven't seen anything other than anecdotes about Astra Zenecca side effects in the UK, has anyone seen any data? It wouldn't explain the regional variations but might that level of side effects be contributing to the Zoe stagnating picture in the UK?

@Duckchick

There have been a lot of reports about very high levels of side effects with the Astra Zenecca vaccine in Europe, e.g. www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-17/astrazeneca-s-covid-19-vaccines-are-going-unused-in-germany . The side effects are apparently bad enough 25% of staff had to take time off, and they have had to reschedule / cancel clinics to avoid staff shortages.

I haven't seen anything other than anecdotes about Astra Zenecca side effects in the UK, has anyone seen any data? It wouldn't explain the regional variations but might that level of side effects be contributing to the Zoe stagnating picture in the UK?

That's interesting because of the people I know in this country the worst (and a higher percentage as well) side effects have been from the Pfizer vaccine.

No serious side effects, but temperature, feeling ill for 2-3 days etc.

Think the Zoe data shows about twice as many people experiencing systemic side effects from AZ compared to Pfizer.

(How Zoe has collected that info but can’t then necessarily separate out side effects from covid symptoms, I am not sure!)

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Think the Zoe data shows about twice as many people experiencing systemic side effects from AZ compared to Pfizer.

(How Zoe has collected that info but can’t then necessarily separate out side effects from covid symptoms, I am not sure!)

Does it show how many doses have been given for each vaccine? I mean is it a raw number or the percentage of people experiencing side effects. I just wondered as I think there have been more AZ jabs but I don't know where I heard that.

Not sure if that makes sense, I need to go to bed.

www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2021/01/saliva-test-evaluation.page

Anyone know of any plans to use these tests more widely?

@JanFebAnyMonth I haven’t seen anything official but I suspect that’s what Boris Johnson was hinting at when he mentioned the route to reopening “more difficult venues” like nightclubs and stadiums. It would be much more doable to conduct mass saliva tests before a football match than nasal and throat swabs

MHRA yellow card report that I posted shows similar levels of reactivity in January for each vaccine; 2/3 of vaccines given by end January were Pfizer and they had roughly twice as many reported symptoms. I'd probably trust those reports over anecdotes because it's systematic data collection. Full results are here: www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

That said, based on trial data more people had symptoms from the first dose of Oxford vaccine and fewer with the second dose, while more people had symptoms from the second dose of Pfizer and fewer with the first dose. People who had covid before had more reactions from the first Pfizer dose. Also younger people had more reactivity, so it depends who is being vaccinated which will vary in the EU as they are vaccinating under 65s.

It could possibly be psychosomatic, various French and German politicians have done such a number on why AZ is problematic that they've frightened people who are having it.

It makes me feel really angry looking at the stats of all those unused doses with the risk of high wastage again like the early weeks of Pfizer. If they don't want a vaccine, then FFS let the doses go to countries that do want to vaccinate and start up the vaccination programme in the EU later when people are ready for it.

@ihearttc

If.I remember correctly, the poster who was contacted because they had a specific variant was done so about 2 weeks after their results so depending on when you tested positive you may still get a call.