Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@MRex according to this they are aiming to reach 20% but presumably they won’t be there yet theconversation.com/amp/qanda-with-sharon-peacock-coronavirus-variant-hunter-154808?__twitter_impression=true[/quote]
Thank you, that was very interesting. I'm really surprised "We [COG-UK] have sequenced about 45% to 48% of all SARS-CoV-2 genomes in the Gisaid database."
I can understand lower sequencing from parts of Asia with lower cases, but USA, Brazil, India and the other EU countries all have capability and should be doing more. Help should also be offered to African countries to set up some basic facilities.
I've read a little more about N439K mutations, which sound theoretically like as much or more of an immune escape issue as E484K, I hope that's being taken into account for boosters.

@MRex

I think the U.K. has/is trying to help improve/assist with genome sequencing in countries with limited resources.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/news.sky.com/story/amp/covid-19-uk-to-share-genomics-know-how-to-help-other-countries-identify-new-variants-12198958

Hopefully (as the importance of this type of surveillance is becoming ever clearer) it will be an area of rapid growth.

Thanks. I know it's good for the UK to help, but I feel we shouldn't be the only country putting effort into this when it's clear many other countries could support the effort. I suppose I just don't really understand why the WHO aren't supportive and putting pressure that other countries should get involved. It's simply no good the world population trying to vaccinate our way out if the world also ignores variants until they arrive in the UK, Denmark, Japan, Australia or New Zealand.

Interestingly the "No jab (unless medical), no job" article from the FT has actual companies willing to be named;
www.ft.com/content/965dfaf0-f070-4dae-93a6-28bedbdb75da. Care homes to be expected and very appropriate. Pimlico plumbers more of a surprise.

My DD works in a nursery and all but one of the staff (who had been vaccinated) have tested positive for COVID this half term, my DD results were inconclusive so she is having a second test today. I really dont understand why they were treated differently to schools. At least it looks like the vaccine worked for the one member of staff.

Do you have any data about nursery workers and whether the risks for them are higher please

@Mrex - re newer variants being taken into account re boosters, I saw an item on the Cambridge lab carrying out the sequencing. In the interview the person interviewed ( I was half watching non so can’t remember name!) made a point of saying one of the main things they are doing is feeding the sequencing of new variants as quickly as possible to those creating vaccines. So from that interview ( assuming correct!) it seemed like there was a constant feed of info going to those formulating boosters.

Genome sequencing is another area ( along faith vaccines) the U.K. seemed to have got right - the government invested in expanding capacity at the start of the pandemic. Seems like money well spent.

*with not faith vaccines!

Thanks @BigmouseLittlehouse. In the same way the UK played catch-up on PCR testing and test/trace, hopefully other countries will see the advantages and catch up on genome testing soon.

I've just realised UK test positivity rate is below 3% again, very reassuring.

I can't see details on how much is going specifically into sequencing rather than new vaccine production etc but the EU is finally starting investment in this space ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/QANDA_21_642

Wee bit of evidence supporting the theory that the ONS data not showing a fall in infections as soon as we thought/indicated by other measures could indeed have been to do with positive tests persisting after initial infection mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1362059943713648645

12,718/738

@MRex I work for an organisation that employs care home staff. It's very interesting to see that someone has now come out and said they'd like to require vaccination as a condition of employment - I'm aware that my organisation is very concerned about some care home staff having refused the jab but decided not to go down the route of requiring it for now - one of the reasons for this was a concern from our Coms team that we didn't want to be the ones in the headlines who were doing this first. Once some organisations start doing this I think they'll be others keen to follow. There's already precedent in this area with staff who work with homeless people and IV drug users who are sometimes required to have hepititus vaccines - and that's purely for their own safety, as there's no real risk to their service users from unvaccinated staff. So the argument for Covid vaccinations being a condition of employment seem stronger to me, at least for new staff.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]Wee bit of evidence supporting the theory that the ONS data not showing a fall in infections as soon as we thought/indicated by other measures could indeed have been to do with positive tests persisting after initial infection mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1362059943713648645[/quote]
That's interesting. Does it also mean that people with the new strain might be infectious for longer? Does the isolation period need to be extended?

It will be interesting to see if any legal challenges are brought against companies requiring compulsory vaccination ( even of new staff). I suspect we would see some.

[quote Firefliess]@MRex I work for an organisation that employs care home staff. It's very interesting to see that someone has now come out and said they'd like to require vaccination as a condition of employment - I'm aware that my organisation is very concerned about some care home staff having refused the jab but decided not to go down the route of requiring it for now - one of the reasons for this was a concern from our Coms team that we didn't want to be the ones in the headlines who were doing this first. Once some organisations start doing this I think they'll be others keen to follow. There's already precedent in this area with staff who work with homeless people and IV drug users who are sometimes required to have hepititus vaccines - and that's purely for their own safety, as there's no real risk to their service users from unvaccinated staff. So the argument for Covid vaccinations being a condition of employment seem stronger to me, at least for new staff.[/quote]
At the care home where I work the staff got a link early last week and by Friday they had all had their jabs. I'm surprised so many don't want it as my colleagues couldn't wait.

I'd lay money that we certainly will see someone challenge it in court, there is always somebody willing to put things to the test. It's tricky, I don't know enough about employment law to know why you wouldn't be able to require it on the basis of vulnerable staff, their protection seems to give reasonable cause in other circumstances. Plumbers are different, they could feasibly only go to non-vulnerable houses, I don't know what arguments would be used. Is "we don't see why we should spend money around scheduling and rescheduling to account for your choices because we intend to market ourselves as vivid secure for customers" going to prove to be enough legal cause? What else could they pull in?

There is a legal case underway for some care home staff who had their positions terminated because of refusing to wear masks without a legal exemption reason while working with vulnerable patients.

I would suspect care homes who cannot guarantee that their staff have been vaccinated will not survive. Who would want to put their parents in the care of someone who is unvaccinated. Care homes, and carers, rightly or wrongly, may well not have a choice. They may win their case, but no-one will want to be cared for by them, and that is the choice of they client.

I think because vaccination isn’t mandatory there may be arguments under the Equalities Act ( for both direct and indirect discrimination) - quite a few heads. I agree might be easier to defend in care of vulnerable.

Why are fewer tests being done?

People not coming forward for testing? Doesn’t really seem to add up with the Zoe uptick?

Something else entirely but...Twitter is awash with conspiracy theorists pointing out simultaneous peaks and declines across different countries such as in the attached image. Can we explain this? For example:

-Similar effect of festive period
-Similar timing of control measure
-Random
-And in fact peaks in many more places are not synchronised it just depends which countries you choose to look at
-Lots of travel between these specific places meaning they are experiencing joint epidemics
-Other? Please specify!

New variants...although they won't be in all countries equally yet?

ancientgran glad that your care home finally got their jabs!

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Something else entirely but...Twitter is awash with conspiracy theorists pointing out simultaneous peaks and declines across different countries such as in the attached image. Can we explain this? For example:

-Similar effect of festive period
-Similar timing of control measure
-Random
-And in fact peaks in many more places are not synchronised it just depends which countries you choose to look at
-Lots of travel between these specific places meaning they are experiencing joint epidemics
-Other? Please specify!

I suspect it's a bit like waves on a motorway. You know when you're driving along and it's busy but free-moving then suddenly everyone starts slowing down, and you sit in a queue for 10 minutes and then, for no apparent reason you're all free moving again (repeat).

You can model this basically mathematically (I did in my 3rd year, but don't ask me to repeat it!), but it would be a little like the butterfly flapping its wings: A little movement results in a bigger movement down the line.

That's interesting. Does it also mean that people with the new strain might be infectious for longer? Does the isolation period need to be extended?

Yes and yes (probably).
mobile.twitter.com/PaulSaxMD/status/1361807940739424256

@Monkeytennis97

12,718/738

Looks like cases going up again

@ancientgran I suspect the staff at your care home were so cross and indignant at being left behind that they all jumped at the chance! I do think that all the emphasis on who gets it first and who has to wait is actually really beneficial in terms of combatting anti vac sentiment. There's a very strong urge to want something if everyone else wants it and it's in short supply.