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Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

999 replies

NoGoodPunsLeft · 09/02/2021 07:19

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

OP posts:
Thread gallery
55
Notmulan · 17/02/2021 09:03

I think it makes a little sense. Higher risk groups, yet awaiting vaccine. Doesn’t make it pleasant and agree it causes harm in a different way, just not harm from covid. I still feel optimistic

ATieLikeRichardGere · 17/02/2021 09:13

I’d be interested to know how many people who are in the shielding category really do shield. Anecdote alert: my DH is on the shielding list and we are cautious to the extent possible but it seems nothing like what I’ve heard/read others are doing. There are still some clear routes COVID could enter the house. His consultant is quite relaxed and seems to have taken the view that it is about balance of harms so that’s how we have approached it too. I wonder across the board how people are really behaving.

herecomesthsun · 17/02/2021 09:22

@Firefliess

Yes it's current advice to all shielders to shield until the end of March. But they're all vaccinated already (except some of them new ones I guess), so that makes little sense to me.
We are only vaccinated with 1 dose, for the most part.

I am also trying to get my head round this.

Mind you, something similar happened in June, just before lockdown ended. The shielded were told to stay in for another month.

Presumably there would be an expectation that when lockdown ends numbers might well go up generally.

There are

  • people with clinical vulnerabilities that haven't been fully diagnosed
  • people who refused a vaccine or can't have one
  • vulnerable people who had the vaccine but might still get ill (in much smaller numbers) if we have another surge.

Presumably they want to avoid another lockdown, so want to minimise risks prior to opening up?

I have to say, I rather regretted being so compliant in the summer, when rates were very low. If I am vaccinated, and rates are low, then freedom looks inviting.

On the other hand, we do also have new variants and if the vaccines don't work so well with them, then the vulnerable remain at significant risk, don't they,

herecomesthsun · 17/02/2021 09:32

Or is this part of the trade-off for schools reopening without more mitigation measures?

lonelyplanet · 17/02/2021 09:55

@herecomesthsun

Or is this part of the trade-off for schools reopening without more mitigation measures?
I imagine this and wanting to open hospitality for Easter.
ancientgran · 17/02/2021 10:15

@Firefliess

Yes it's current advice to all shielders to shield until the end of March. But they're all vaccinated already (except some of them new ones I guess), so that makes little sense to me.
They aren't all vaccinated.
MRex · 17/02/2021 10:17

@ATieLikeRichardGere

From what I read I assumed they are sequencing all the positive tests in the surge areas but it’s not clear.
Yes, I believe they are. I just wondered how they are finding the extras fron different areas, if that's at the 10% level. I'm wondering if the % genome testing is rising with fewer cases, because the capacity in January seemed very high... Or is it still 10% and potentially missing areas of dodgy variant spread?
everythingthelighttouches · 17/02/2021 10:33

Has anyone seen this??

The challenge trial has been approved.

www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk

I know there are ethical debates about this but I think it is game changing.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 17/02/2021 10:46

@MRex according to this they are aiming to reach 20% but presumably they won’t be there yet theconversation.com/amp/qanda-with-sharon-peacock-coronavirus-variant-hunter-154808?__twitter_impression=true

covetingthepreciousthings · 17/02/2021 10:59

@everythingthelighttouches

Has anyone seen this??

The challenge trial has been approved.

www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk

I know there are ethical debates about this but I think it is game changing.

Thats interesting! Hadn't heard about that before.
Doomsdayiscoming · 17/02/2021 11:14

@everythingthelighttouches

Has anyone seen this??

The challenge trial has been approved.

www.gov.uk/government/news/worlds-first-coronavirus-human-challenge-study-receives-ethics-approval-in-the-uk

I know there are ethical debates about this but I think it is game changing.

With such a small trial size I’d argue you need to be hugely confident that the volunteers have never had covid, especially the ones given placebo.

We should have recruited these volunteers a year ago, sent them to a remote Scottish island. Could have combined it with a reality TV show for lockdown entertainment.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 17/02/2021 11:46

I guess with vaccination programmes so far along, challenge trials could be an important way to actually test vaccines in future and achieve sufficiently fast results for us to take action on response to mutations etc.

Was also interested to read about “test negative design” studies
mobile.twitter.com/nataliexdean/status/1361431835868229633

covetingthepreciousthings · 17/02/2021 11:51

Could have combined it with a reality TV show for lockdown entertainment.

Funnily enough this is what DH said, he said is it going to be televised on channel 4 Grin

Doomsdayiscoming · 17/02/2021 12:00

@covetingthepreciousthings

Could have combined it with a reality TV show for lockdown entertainment.

Funnily enough this is what DH said, he said is it going to be televised on channel 4 Grin

The Great British Challenge Trial.

Bring back Mel and Sue.

“Andrew has run off to the toilets, looks like he is experiencing some early covid symptoms there. Last thing you want the week after infection week is a soggy bottom”.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 17/02/2021 12:14

Uptick on ZOE mobile.twitter.com/timspector/status/1362008028082548736
but people wondering whether vaccine side effect reporting is involved - I imagine the younger the vaccinated, the more likely they are to be using the app.

covetingthepreciousthings · 17/02/2021 12:22

@ATieLikeRichardGere

Uptick on ZOE mobile.twitter.com/timspector/status/1362008028082548736 but people wondering whether vaccine side effect reporting is involved - I imagine the younger the vaccinated, the more likely they are to be using the app.
When you're using the ZOE app you record whether you've had the vaccine though? So surely they'd be able to tell if it's from that or not?
Firefliess · 17/02/2021 12:31

I'm a little concerned about the recent uptick on Zoe. I don't think it can be vaccine side effects as it's too recent - we've been vaccinating at pace for over a month now. Hopefully it's just a blip.

wintertravel1980 · 17/02/2021 12:33

Fully agree re Zoe. It may be a temporary glitch but it is worth keeping an eye on.

From Tim Spector’s twitter:

After 5 weeks of falling cases- a hitch! Our early warning ZOE app shows regional differences appearing with Scotland, Wales, and North Engl and E.Midlands starting to trend up again. London and the South are still dropping.

wintertravel1980 · 17/02/2021 12:35

Tim Spector does not seem to think it’s vaccines but it is plausible that cold weather in recent days led to increases in indoor socialisation.

ATieLikeRichardGere · 17/02/2021 12:43

I don’t think they are easily able to separate out vaccine side effects from other symptoms on the app mobile.twitter.com/timspector/status/1362010656464130051
much as it seems obvious.

PurpleWh1teGreen · 17/02/2021 12:44

Re the Zoe App, vaccinations and reporting symptoms, I don't think they are separating symptoms in post-vaccine people from the other app users.

I was offered a PCR test after I reported symptoms - a headache and shivering - the day after recording my vaccine. I reported assuming they were monitoring post vax symptoms and so was surprised to be offered a test. I declined as I am doing regular LFTs and the symptoms resolved within 24 hours.

I have spoken to a lot of people who are understandably desperate to hug their grandchildren though, and so I wonder if people are beginning to mix more once they have had their jabs.

Cornettoninja · 17/02/2021 13:08

I have sought reassurance on this thread a couple of times about the ZOE numbers - gutted that it might not just be my paranoia Sad

That said, as long as it’s taken seriously it’s not necessarily doom and gloom is it? If it’s identifiable areas then mass testing is an option which seems somewhat effective. I’d support focussing the vaccine rollout on particular areas too if it could be effective.

Tbh I’m pretty concerned that the wider rhetoric is going to damage any exercise in trying to quell numbers as people are becoming more restless.

Cornettoninja · 17/02/2021 13:13

It’s not a fancy graph but if anyone is interested I have a habit of screen shotting the daily ZOE estimates and this is the last few days (today included)

Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb
ATieLikeRichardGere · 17/02/2021 13:21

I would say it’s too soon to worry. I continue to think that as we move down age cohorts and likely app users we can’t yet rule out vaccine side effects as a partial explanation.

Secondly, more vaccines continue being administered and better weather is coming. These will continue to exert downward pressure.

Thirdly, as you say, mass testing, surge testing is being deployed.

The thing that would make me more worried would be if this could be linked in some way to a particular variant of concern.

wintertravel1980 · 17/02/2021 13:30

Interesting re: vaccine side effects and Zoe - but in this case I am wondering why we are seeing regional differences. London and South seem to be still going down.

The weather might explain the regional story but if it has indeed been the primary driver, it should hopefully be temporary.