Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Of course, his chance of catching it, given he is not shielded and has a high contact job , isn't factored in

Which does of course make it completely and utterly useless for its status purpose of:

"help patients and doctors reach a shared understanding of risk, within the context of individual circumstances, risk attitude and the sorts of preventative measures people can take in their daily lives."

Because it's completely ignored the risk attitude and user underlying the data, if you don't know what other people are doing, you might imagine that you are taking a much higher risk than others, when you're taking less, and the reverse.

Of course you can't fit that info into the model, as they don't have the data on what individual risk mitigations people are doing to fit to the data (which could be enough to explain the male/female difference even, people tend to suggest male hygiene is worse...)

I suppose at some point if the risk is high and cannot effectively be mitigated, that's where shielding advice kicks in?

@CommanderBurnham

I can't seem to access the tool. Can someone kindly point me in the right direction.

qcovid.org/Calculation

I suppose at some point if the risk is high and cannot effectively be mitigated, that's where shielding advice kicks in?

Yep, which is why IMO the risk score should be split into "risk if you catch covid" and "risk of catching covid", and then you could actually make some sensible decisions on how to reduce a high risk if you catch covid, which would likely lead you to shielding.

@ceeveebee thank you. Mine is 35/100 without vaccination.

I appreciate they can’t for everyone and this is a bit of a blunt tool - but presumably GOs etc could use the tool as a starting point for discussions with some patients which may be able to take into account risk of catching COViD. It is a tool developed for health professionals use, not particularly for individuals to try and look up their risk factor.

It is a tool developed for health professionals use

it is, but it provides no information on the default mitigations ( I think perhaps it's none due to it being developed and matched against "first wave" data, but then I fear there's a huge hidden occupational risk aspect to it, that is a hidden correlation.

What other similar tools exist to talk about risk, how are they used, and what evidence for their value do they have? I can't really see much evidence of them - you'd've think the same sort of model for weight loss or exercise mitigations would be there if the concept was valuable.

That calculator is really interesting. Does anyone know why they have included previous fractures such as wrist/hip as relevant? I’ve not heard that mentioned in the past

It does seem odd to have mixed up "risk if you catch Covid" with "risk of catching Covid" especially as the risk if you catch it is quite well understood, and the data that they have on your individual risk of catching it so very patchy. It doesn't even factor in whether you've had Covid or been vaccinated, which are surely far bigger factors than whether your living arrangements in terms of your risk of catching it.

It also seems very odd timing to me to be telling people now to start shielding just at the point when cases are falling and they've all either had the vaccine or are about to have it. And shielding between now and the end of March - How does that make any sense? Case rates are falling currently. They're certain to be rising again by late spring once we start opening up. Or are they really going to keep moving the goal posts and tell shielders to isolate for the next five years or more? That's harsh

@lurker101

That calculator is really interesting. Does anyone know why they have included previous fractures such as wrist/hip as relevant? I’ve not heard that mentioned in the past

Fractures aren't in the list of risk factors they've included. They would seem unlikely to be a risk factor, unless they were associated with some other health condition I would have thought?

@Firefliess it’s at the bottom on the tool @ceeveebee posted which calculates your likelihood of death/hospitalisations from covid. I don’t understand either how having had a previous fracture would be relevant, but I’ve maybe misunderstood something

@lurker101

That calculator is really interesting. Does anyone know why they have included previous fractures such as wrist/hip as relevant? I’ve not heard that mentioned in the past

Just double checked and actually fractures are on the list (quite low down) but only if they're related to osteoporosis. I don't know whether having osteoporosis makes you more likely to die if you catch Covid or just more likely to catch it if you're ending up in A&E more often. I did know of someone caught it in hospital while recovering from a broken hip and died.

Obesity is probably a risk factor in hip fractures, and probably protective in wrist fractures, see e.g.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22095911/
So I expect the causation would be in something else rather than the fractures.

And yes I agree @Firefliess with the harm caused by shielding seems odd to encourage more people into it now!

Hip and wrist fractures are associated with raised morbidity and increasing age

Thanks @Firefliess I see that the NHS document does clarify that it needs to have been osteoporosis related fracture, whereas the Qcovid tool didn’t clarify. I wondered how my childhood injury could possibly be relevant!

A poster on the thread about it started this afternoon knows people who've been working on it for six months and says there's no particular significance to the timing.

I imagine they are asking them to shield as having just developed the tool, found individuals who are at higher risk they couldn’t just ignore it and not advise to shield. Is everyone else currently shielding being told until end of March at the earliest ( which would then make sense date wise)?

There is of course a wider question as to what is happening re shielding.

Wow just heard on radio someone from Brent Council - a very deprived borough. They currently have 17,000 shielding.

When this new list is enacted they will have a further 24,000 shielding, half of those (12,000) under 70.

Yes it's current advice to all shielders to shield until the end of March. But they're all vaccinated already (except some of them new ones I guess), so that makes little sense to me.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Wow just heard on radio someone from Brent Council - a very deprived borough. They currently have 17,000 shielding.

When this new list is enacted they will have a further 24,000 shielding, half of those (12,000) under 70.

They actually factored in being in a deprived area to the new criteria, so I guess that was going to happen - as well as already having higher proportions of BME and people with various health conditions. Local authorities try to support those who are shielding with phone calls and food delivery if necessary. It will be a lot to take on for some.

Yes think that was what Brent Council were trying to get their head around!

Surge testing for SA variant and (in a Manchester area) the mutation of the Kent variant expanded:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-56091340

I'm a bit nervous about the locations of the extra Surrey testing. Goldsworth Park and Egham was the first surge testing and are quite far apart, now it looks to be Maybury, which is the opposite side of Woking.
Have we seen how they are picking these areas, is it still from catching a single case on the 10% genome testing? (And how is there genome test capacity given the focus on these surge test areas?)

From what I read I assumed they are sequencing all the positive tests in the surge areas but it’s not clear.

But they're all vaccinated already (except some of them new ones I guess), so that makes little sense to me

It's quite scary to me, it really seems that a lot of the advice completely ignores that shielding causes great health harm itself, or there's significant missing information that's not public as why the balance is so towards a desperate need not to catch the virus.