Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Very likely to be under 20k. The latest data for England is 17.7k (13 feb) and when you add up the latest for each nation (from dates varying between 11 and 12 Feb) it is already around the 20k mark for the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview%26areaName=United%20Kingdom#card-patients_in_hospital

[quote ceeveebee]Very likely to be under 20k. The latest data for England is 17.7k (13 feb) and when you add up the latest for each nation (from dates varying between 11 and 12 Feb) it is already around the 20k mark for the UK

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=overview%26areaName=United%20Kingdom#card-patients_in_hospital[/quote]
Yup. Current if you add up individual latest data: 20971.

You get two days of static normally due to Saturday and Sunday and one normal fall. (Based on the last few weeks).

So yeah, I’m theory should be sub 20k.
Which to me is quite a big psychological barrier, and really makes me angry at Hancock spouting the whole “23k in hospital as of right now” yesterday. As people will think “omg it’s dropped by 4K in one day!!!!”

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56086965

1.7m extra told to shield, and bumped up the vaccine priority list (although many have already been jabbed as over 70).

21001 in hospital for UK

20947 if you add all latest data.

Forgot this is a day behind, and we don’t get 16th data for ages.

10625 cases 799 deaths

I would imagine quite a few of the +40 BMI may have been done or be imminent as well since they are more likely to have other conditions, surely?

+40 BMI was at group 6 before.

@Piggywaspushed

I would imagine quite a few of the +40 BMI may have been done or be imminent as well since they are more likely to have other conditions, surely?

+40 BMI was at group 6 before.

I'm not so sure about that statement. My husband has ballooned again this year to bmi 39*. He has no other underlying conditions apart from compulsive snacking on almonds every night. I would be really upset if he was higher on the vacc list than me. He has an option to go change his bmi, but I don't have an option to cure myself.

*and he actually doesn't look really fat. overweight yes, but not wow fat. so bmi 40 can be strange.

He has an option to go change his bmi, but I don't have an option to cure myself

It's right to not go down this route, sorry, but making judgements about how changeable or personally responsible an individuals health needs are is completely wrong. It has to be purely on the best judgement of clinical need even when efficiency requires that to be based on broad groups.

We are vaccinating those most vulnerable and having a bmi over 40 makes you more vulnerable. I’m glad I don’t live in a country that says “ you could lose weight so we won’t prioritise you “.

I do wonder how good the data GPs have on people's weight is though? You tend to get weighted when you first register at a GP (but not currently) and then you don't, unless you actually go to them saying you want help losing weight or it happens to come up in some way.

And more broadly, who's going to apply this new algorithm to all the patients in the country? Have the team than created it already done so with GP records and they're now telling GPs who is in the list? Or do GPs do it themselves? If the former it's going to struggle with people updating their records in any way.

Should we be surprised that gender isn't taken into account?

Be nice if they got the people in group 1 done before worrying about this.

@LockdownIsDragging

We are vaccinating those most vulnerable and having a bmi over 40 makes you more vulnerable. I’m glad I don’t live in a country that says “ you could lose weight so we won’t prioritise you “.

But you are happy to live in a country where a lot of chronic autoimmune conditions that have no cure are not on the priority list.... well, we differ. To put it in context. An autoimmune condition if triggered requires potentially heavy steroids, medications for months to get the flare up under control, maybe hospitalization, and another many months -if successful- to get back to normal, no medication, if patient is lucky.

Now compare this to bmi 40, no underlying condition.
I have been very overweight at one point, and I still believe that if it is purely due to over eating/no movement then it is the individual's responsibility.

but to @Firefliess' point: it is hard to know who falls into this category.

I do wonder how good the data GPs have on people's weight is though?

I've never been weighed when registering, I did once get weighed, and I was probably a pretty high BMI, given I was about 30kg's heavier than I am now, but I doubt that got carried forward anywhere to other GP's since then.

However, I suspect most people who have had a high BMI for some considerable time would be known to their doctors, as it is hard to not have other health issues with a BMI over 40, and if not, maybe this will encourage them to talk to their GP.

I would be interested in some stats differences on how many people have entered BMI 40+ since lockdown begun through the much more inactive lifestyles and how many have been motivated to lose weight, it could be that the group is completely different to a year ago.

digital.nhs.uk/coronavirus/risk-assessment/population

Lots of explanation here

From there, here's the risk predictor

digital.nhs.uk/coronavirus/risk-assessment

Gender at birth is included

@JanFebAnyMonth

https://digital.nhs.uk/coronavirus/risk-assessment/population

Lots of explanation here

Thanks! So looks like they've identified the specific people on the list. I'd imagine they'll mostly be older men, as sex and age were the two big factors most obviously missing from the original shielding list. Plus those with multiple things that all increase risk just a bit, but not enough to be on the shielding list - eg being Asian, high BMI, etc. It would be nice to see the specific risk factors they've linked to each thing, but they say they can't easily do that because some of them interact. There's a tool for clinicians that I was about to try out, but now the website has crashed.

I just did that assessment for me and DH and there is a big difference between the risk factors for us - same age, BMI, ethnicity, no conditions - my risk of death is 1 in 67,000 and his is 1 in 34,000 just by virtue of being male. Both extremely low risk of course but I was surprised that being male roughly doubled his risk of death.

@TheSunIsStillShining I haven’t made any judgement about people with autoimmune conditions.
How do you feel about smokers, do you think they should be treated if they get lung cancer, or is that their fault? You are beginning to slide down a very slippery slope when you start to make treatment decisions on whether you judge the person to be at fault.

Jan , I think you broke that link! It seems to be overloaded with all of us checking!!

Oops

Working again now...

I forgot my risk but DH's puts him at 57/100 and me at 42.

He has a 1:18000 risk of death. Which does sound better than I thought. Of course, his chance of catching it, given he is not shielded and has a high contact job , isn't factored in.

@ceeveebee

I just did that assessment for me and DH and there is a big difference between the risk factors for us - same age, BMI, ethnicity, no conditions - my risk of death is 1 in 67,000 and his is 1 in 34,000 just by virtue of being male. Both extremely low risk of course but I was surprised that being male roughly doubled his risk of death.

Well, I think they say that every 7 years doubles the risk of death, and being male adds 5 years onto your "covid age". That means that a male and female of the same age, the man will be getting towards double the females' risk.

I can't seem to access the tool. Can someone kindly point me in the right direction.