Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

The number of MSOAs in England with suppressed data for a seven day period showing signs of gathering pace. Suppressed meaning between 0 and 2 cases, and with 6791 MSOAs in total. 7 days to:

06 Jan. 4 ( yes just four!)

13 Jan. 9

20 Jan. 21

27 Jan 60

03 Feb 122

10 Feb 342

Bit of wider context : 7 days to

02 Dec. 606

14 Oct. 873

30 Sep. 2593

02 Sep 5452

And the best ever 7 day period

16 July 6471 with suppressed data

Oops missed your reply @boys3 with Cumbria and Lancashire- thanks - interesting variation between the different boroughs

Possible reasons for cases dropping so fast would be:

• impact of vaccination - a quarter of the population vaccinated ought to make an impact
• healthcare staff being vaccinated leading to fewer hospital acquired infections (I wish we had better data on this too)
• growing herd immunity due to past infection among those who mix most

- cold weather making people stay indoors more. - increased testing of asymptomatic people starting to have an impact.

Interestingly, the Zoe app have suggested the fall happened earlier than reported cases figures shows - which could point to an actual fall in infections since early January which was initially counterbalanced by increased testing but which we're now seeing the benefits from via reduced transmission from the asymptotic people who we've picked up.

[quote Eyewhisker]More real world confirmation from Israel, that the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is highly effective - over 90% after two doses.

Study finds 94% drop in symptomatic Covid cases with Pfizer vaccine
via The Irish Times
www.irishtimes.com/news/world/middle-east/study-finds-94-drop-in-symptomatic-covid-cases-with-pfizer-vaccine-1.4484846[/quote]
Am I right in thinking they stuck to a 3 week gap between doses in Israel? Wondering if the same effect would be seen with a longer gap but I suppose we have to wait and see in the UK.

@teta

Anecdotally a close family member - medic in a surge area has told me they they are seeing cases of infection several weeks after the jab. Large cluster in a nursing home. But the number of cases presenting overall in hospital is much lower. Apparently they are sworn to secrecy regarding the surge data, as it's not out yet.

This is interesting, what could be the reason? Are you saying the people who had the vaccine ended up infected or just generally within the local population cases are going up? Both could be caused by people taking more risks if vaccines are incorrectly perceived to protect immediately.

The new variant first detected in Nigeria:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/15/32-cases-of-latest-covid-variant-of-concern-found-in-uk?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other&fbclid=IwAR14n4MVYdu-zw12gtroq9stx5ux9VSgiAwHkL55DM3atU89V6vjJwNfN-k

Lots of interesting info here, including the observation that surge testing may not work if those with symptoms refuse testing as they can't afford to isolate.

LFT impact:
Number of LFTs is 110-460k on any given day, recent average around 300k.
Positivity has been generally low, say 0.5% average at the moment.
So worst case adding 550 cases per day; could be 2,300 but the higher totals will include voided tests etc - so most likely adding about 1,000 cases per day.
That's great for bringing down additional infections, but under 10% of the total.

Care home outbreaks are reduced on the surveillance report, the biggest current outbreaks seem to be prisons. (Admittance or other procedures maybe not robust enough for Kent variant.)

I wonder whether they'll prioritise prisons for vaccines? They've included care homes for non-elderly, but I guess prisons might be more controversial.

@MRex. Yes you're right that the asymptotic testing won't have added on all that much to case rates as it first started, but it could be responsible in part for accelerating the rate of fall a few weeks later.

Wardens could be included easily enough, and it's clearly necessary because of confined space living conditions and the difficulty of controlling infection when it gets in. I predict though that we won't hear about vaccinating prisoners until it's been done. Vaccinating prisoners while police aren't vaccinated, teachers aren't vaccinated, cold facility food workers aren't vaccinated, retail workers aren't vaccinated, asthmatics aren't vaccinated, people have their businesses closed... There would be absolute uproar.

I agree

@Daybath the Nursing Home residents were past the 3 week period and the home is owned by a medic, so I'm told. With over 15 cases. Family member saw one case today in hospital that had been vaccinated several weeks ago. As opposed to several a day until very recently. This variant has been found in lots of different parts of the city & the results are coming out shortly.

University of Warwick research suggests even in London and SE the schools cases increased 5-7 days after local increases, suggesting the driver was still community cases.
“An analysis of school absences in England during the Covid-19 pandemic”
warwick.ac.uk/newsandevents/pressreleases/new_research_finds_no_evidence_that_schools_are_playing_a_significant_role_in_driving_spread_of_the_covid-19_virus_in_the_community1
Basically just a summary of the scientific briefing from one epidemiologist in the "expert reaction", which also notes ECDC came to the same conclusion from EU analysis: www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-on-schools-and-absences-due-to-covid-19-between-september-and-december-2020/.
I can't find the actual pre-print and would like to see the detail on SE/London analysis, if anyone sees it please post, thanks.

Interesting Philip Dormitzer from Pfizer interview that @CuriousaboutSamphire posted elsewhere:
www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/02/question-choices-pfizer-vaccine-leader-confronting-new-coronavirus-variants.
It references this pre-print that highlights a 6.5 fold titres reduction for SA variant, interestingly he says with flu they edit when it's 4, but suggests other immunity kicks in (T-cell presumably). www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.25.428137v2

It has slightly irrationally annoyed me that a press release form that research has been sent out and traction gained in the media as obvious flag flying with no peer review and no preprint available MRex. I assume preprint will be out soon, but it already looks like out of data research in such a fast moving situation.

Yes. I don't think it's fair for media to be given a chance to comment when others can't read the research. But then I feel the same about all research, be quiet until it's published or it's just marketing.

Absolutely!

re press release ,comments ,lack of research detail - I'm no scientist but it seems odd to me to comment on "weak evidence"

The researchers observed a positive correlation between cases in the community and cases in schools in some regions, with some weak evidence suggesting that cases in schools actually lag behind cases in the surrounding community.

Yes, but you can see sectors of MN already getting quite excited /gloaty about it all (delete as desired) so, job done, I guess.

Lots of the SAGE stuff parroted out is based on 'weak evidence' when one digs. It is pretty shameful really.

Well yes ,but this is pointed out so no digging required .

Pointed out in the press release, yes. Ignored by the press!

Hey ho.

Unfortunately this looks like a repeat of August when the press was putting out lots of "schools are safe" information simply because they wanted it to be true.

If they looked at our area heat map it is very clear that schools were the driver. We were one of the areas that shot up to about 900/100k having been very low throughout September and October, and now is very low again.

Being devil’s advocate here, nothing is really that clear. We don’t have a controlled experiment going on. Schools didn’t open in a vacuum - a number of other changes took place around the same time. What may have happened in one area doesn’t necessarily offer any information about broader trends either, because there could have been an unlikely superspreading event or other unique factor. I’m not saying this is the case, but just that it is genuinely difficult to definitively make the case either way over whether schools are transmission drivers or not, and to what extent. There are just so many caveats in the data and the analyses. We can only get so far with our armchair epidemiology. What would be helpful from the media would be framing the question differently, from the starting point that we mostly all agree on which is that schools contribute to R and that having schools closed has a high cost. Rather than “are schools responsible”? I’m not sure this framing even makes sense.

No, it really doesn't, especially without nay real backwards tracing of cases.

I think whether schools 'drive transmission' or not is a bit of a red herring. We ahve certainly moved on from last year when scientist were telling us that children didn't get or spread!

I am not even sure what he Warwick report is for really.

For people with a political interest in pushing schools to reopen early?

Any predictions on the number in hospital when today’s numbers are released (I think we’ll get a total UK update).

I am going to be confident and say just under 20k.