Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

the rate of Covid in the general population is only around 1%, so they're not likely to be admitting that high a proportion of people with broken legs who happen to have Covid

No, but the problem is the people with broken legs who acquire it in hospital, there's stats saying that's 10-30% depending on hospital, what we don't know is how those groups die or if they stay in hospital - the one with the broken leg will likely leave the hospital almost immediately, others it will likely hasten death, others will stay in hospital for a long time - so there's lots of info missing in the headline stats.

(also it's not 1% of broken leg people, since the PCR can detect past infection too, so it depends on number that remain positive in the previous 90 days of the 10-15% who'd've had it, the numbers on that depend on how hard you look for it I believe, and I don't think there's the evidence for that)

Hope it's Ok to post here as someone advised on my original post:
I've been contacted by Public Health England to notify me that I have had the SA variant of Covid. Lots of questions about my contact were asked etc. I'm in an area where there have been no other SA variants diagnosed apparently.
The person who it's believed I contracted this from has also been contacted but I know little more.
My question to more informed people is will this variant have come from someone with the same variant or can it mutate from the Kent variant?

They were definitely testing on admission to hospital in May as ds was admitted then and as soon as they started talking about possibility of being admitted they tested.

@springisintheair2021 - I hope you get well soon. The variants are genome mapped to identify their "heritage" as they change. There are numerous differences between Kent and South Africa; while bits of those mutations such as the "immune escape" E484K (found in the SA strain) can and do independently mutate, the other differences will make it clear the "heritage" of the strain you caught. So no, it wouldn't be a mutated Kent variant.

@springisintheair2021 - the diagram in this twitter thread might help explain what I mean about the differences: mobile.twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1355689990487896065

@MargaretThursday

They were definitely testing on admission to hospital in May as ds was admitted then and as soon as they started talking about possibility of being admitted they tested.

They weren't doing testing on admission in April. The paramedics just asked if the patient had a raised temp before coming into the house (in normal uniform/no PPE, not even a face mask)

MRex
Thank you I'll have a read
I've fortunately made a full recovery but was terribly unwell for around ten days.

Good to hear you're better. You can also learn more about genome testing here: www.cogconsortium.uk/

Everyone - interesting stats on the variants here, Kent over 87% in the UK now - www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/.

@springisintheair2021
Thanks for sharing your story. Very glad you’ve made a full recovery. I would be interested to know how long after your test you were informed that it was the SA variant.

It was 17 days after the positive test I was informed

Glad you've got the info you wanted here @springisintheair2021. It would also be interesting to know if they set up surge testing in your area, don't know if that automatically springs into action or what.

Thanks so much @springisintheair2021

A single case has led to surge testing in Bramley in Hampshire so I assume that surge testing happens automatically when there is any one case, which I think is great.

I’m trying to follow what is happening with the SA variant in continental Europe. The cases in the NE of France and the Austrian Tyrol seem worrying to me. These countries are not on the UK red list.

France

I hope you don’t mind me posting this as well - I’d say it’s an anecdote, but with interesting data, or perhaps we could call it a case study, about the use of testing. One issue is I’m not sure I follow what all of the test types referred to really are.

“ I thought creating a COVID “Immunity Bubble” for a small group in a TV studio setting was possible. I was wrong.”

www.diamandis.com/blog/false-sense-security?hs_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true

Very interesting ATie. All here could probably have told him that that outcome was still possible, but it's the kind of story I'd like those making decisions over schools, travel, care homes even, to read and understand.

@ATieLikeRichardGere - did you see my link? Of you filter the GISAID link for B.1.351 that's the SA variant and scroll then you get a count of all cases found so far per country: www.gisaid.org/hcov19-variants/. Pretty strong spread in Africa, France as you say higher than you'd think at 2% and Belgium 4.4% isn't good.
It looks a little worse than I expected, but still fairly lightweight compared with the Kent variant spread, which has now clearly taken over throughout the EU.

Brazil B.1.1.28 has taken over South America and looks to have a couplr cases dotted through the USA, why don't the USA genome test more?

The California variant B.1.429 is 100% of Taiwan cases! Only 3, travellers I expect. 5% of the USA cases now and looks to be spreading widely.

Sorry, typos everywhere and it should say 7% of USA cases.

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]I hope you don’t mind me posting this as well - I’d say it’s an anecdote, but with interesting data, or perhaps we could call it a case study, about the use of testing. One issue is I’m not sure I follow what all of the test types referred to really are.

“ I thought creating a COVID “Immunity Bubble” for a small group in a TV studio setting was possible. I was wrong.”

www.diamandis.com/blog/false-sense-security?hs_amp=true&__twitter_impression=true[/quote]
Interesting. I'm assuming they used some kind of rapid PCR test? Is this different from our PCR tests which take a day or two to return results (or is that just due to queueing)?

Ben Osborn, the UK head of Pfizer, said they do not expect to have to change their vaccine to handle SARS-CoV-2 variants B.1.1.17 and B.1.351 due to no significant drop in efficacy.

Link for above
mobile.twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1360864715392614401

[quote ATieLikeRichardGere]@mrshoho they announced their earlier findings that it may have been 30% more deadly at one of the daily briefings I think on the 22nd January and there was lots of news follow up.[/quote]
Yes, this is an update on that now that there is more data.

The case for elevated mortality rates from B117 is getting more certain, with multiple independent studies showing larger effect sizes as time passes.

Interestingly this report also reports several accounts of elevated hospitalisation rates, of the order of 40%.

In case anyone might miss it, the report writes in bold:

“Based on these analyses, it is likely that infection with VOC B.1.1.7 is associated with an increased risk of hospitalisation and death compared to infection with non-VOC viruses.“

Less uncertainty than before.

mobile.twitter.com/ArisKatzourakis/status/1360353375620124678

Interesting. I'm assuming they used some kind of rapid PCR test? Is this different from our PCR tests which take a day or two to return results (or is that just due to queueing)?

The way I have read it is that everyone took 2 laboratory based PCR tests: (1) 72 days prior to arrival and (2) immediately upon arrival on January 23. I understood all the subsequent tests (until January 26 when the production ended) were "rapid antigen tests" (i.e. LFTs).

To be fair, the group included 50 people (+35 AV team "isolated in one corner of the office") so it was quite a large "bubble".

It's a really interesting case study @Atie Reflects what we knew from early on when we knew more often how people had caught Covid that there are a small number of superspreaders who infect large numbers of people (and also lots of people who infect noone). Sounds like they had a superspreader who maybe became highly infectious during the last day together, or possibly didn't swab correctly. Makes me wonder how much behaviour changes when people have the false confidence of those around them all being tested and therefore "safe". Especially when they've been starved of human contact for some time. Also useful for considering that things can be most safely opened up - small numbers of people mixing together, or more fleeting contact between largest numbers may be ok. Large indoor gatherings, for prolonged periods of time, remain a risk.

10,972 / 258
Vaccines 15,062,189

Wow low deaths figures (comparatively)!

Thanks for the info re variants @CoffeeandCroissant. Just thinking, if it's 87% of new cases and causes 40% more hospitalisations, how come the numbers are decreasing? I suppose hospitalisations are only falling slowly though.

Just wondering what will happen when restrictions ease.