Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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Ditto deaths, which are falling quite steeply. Just effect of 5 weeks of lockdown inc schools being closed?

Almost 1400 less in Hospital in England for 12th to 13th (other countries don’t release data on Sunday).

I thought I was being optimistic thinking by the time Boris speaks it will be 15k UK-wide. I think that is looking very likely. Perhaps even close to 10k.

So glad this is all over.

If you take all the nations latest figures: 21026 in hospital.

I think 10k by 22nd of people in hospital would be too optimistic, but 15k for England only in 10 days time reasonably realistic.

Just looking at England numbers we're approximately 17/18k currently, which is approximately the same number as the height of the first peak.
10 days after the first peak they were down to around 15.5k.
However under 10k wasn't hit until10th May, over a fortnight later.

Have been following this thread carefully - thanks for all the info- what was last Sunday's figures for comparison ?

Last Sunday:
Cases 3,945,680 (inc 15,845), Deaths 112,465 (inc 373)

@MargaretThursday

I think 10k by 22nd of people in hospital would be too optimistic, but 15k for England only in 10 days time reasonably realistic.

Just looking at England numbers we're approximately 17/18k currently, which is approximately the same number as the height of the first peak.
10 days after the first peak they were down to around 15.5k.
However under 10k wasn't hit until10th May, over a fortnight later.

But this time a lot of people have natural immunity, vaccinations, and better treatment.

The downward trajectory is much better than last time. Sure it could stall, but it hasn’t yet that’s for sure.

There are only 17694 in England now. I’ll go out on a limb and say there will way less than 15k in 10 days time. The data will be not be up to date when Boris speaks.

You get three days of lag (fewer discharges at weekend I think), and it will be back to big falls.

Thank you - falling by 25% ish

It is very positive to see the numbers falling steeply. I was thinking about our immediate extended family today; of 9 adults, 4 of us have been vaccinated and one other had confirmed Covid over Christmas. Added to which, less than 1 person in 1,000 has the disease in our local area, meaning the risks to the unprotected adults are now quite small.

Although the actual numbers are higher than they were last summer, it’s beginning to feel like we are in a better place in terms of the future.

Thanks @ATieLikeRichardGere and @CoffeeandCroissant for the latest on the variant info. I've not been keeping up with it all and in a haze dealing with 2 family members who were both hospitalised with covid over the last few weeks. Thankfully both home now but neither have been told whether it was the Kent variant or not. So thankful that our vaccination program is on track and hoping that the benefits are felt as lockdown eases.

Another set of positive direction numbers, although with the witless sixty three the chance that defeat will for the third time be snatched from the jaws of victory cannot yet be dismissed.

Anyway I mentioned some scattergrams a couple of days ago when the varying speed of case reductions in different parts of England was raised.

So in each graph the x, horizontal axis, represents the latest case rate per 100,000 (based on a 4 day reporting lag) and the y, vertical axis the position as at 3rd Jan just ahead of lockdown three, Return of Common Sense, being announced. The red dashed horizontal line reflects the overall England case rate at 3rd Jan, and the Green dashed vertical line the latest overall England rate.

So on the graphs if a region or council is in the top left, so above the red line and to the left of the green line its rate at the start of lockdown was higher than the overall England position and even though its rate has fallen its latest rate is also above the current overall English position.

Above the red line but to the right of the green line are those that have moved from being above the overall England rate at the outset but are now below the current England rate - so impressive progress.

Below the red line and to the right of the green - below the overall England position at the start of January and below the latest overall rate as well.

Then finally below the red line, but to the left of the green line are those councils that were lower than the England position at the start of lockdown, but are higher than the current latest rate. So whilst the case rate has still fallen, the speed of reduction is more limited.

All clear? Good.

So attached is the graph with every Council plotted, and then one just showing the regions.

On the regional one:

London, East of England, and South East all rapidly decreasing.

Only the SW has a lower rate.

All the other regions though showing falls had rates at the start of lockdown lower than the overall England position, but have fallen more slowly and now have rates a little higher than the overall England rate.

I''ll then post graphs for each region(s) for their unitary councils.

Here's London. I've highlighted Ealing as it appears a constant source of interest in some quarters. Three quarters of LBCs now below the current England rate.

Plus the South West, (all councils shown here, unitaries and districts). Almost all in a positive quadrant, just BCP with a rate above England at start of lockdown and based on the current position.

Then South East and East unitaries, a handful still making somewhat slower progress, and the largely the usual suspects for those who remember the PHE interventions last summer

Delving a bit deeper a graph with the Essex, Herts and Kent districts

North West Unitaries; North East and Yorkshire/Humber graphs

Finally East and West Midlands graph for their unitary Councils, and one showing all East Midlands district councils.

knowing what you lot are like the data behind the councils at regional level graphs.

and

Thanks @boys3. The interpretation there looks like perhaps London, East of England, and South East all rapidly decreasing because they had the Kent variant first. Other areas are decreasing more slowly, because Kent variant was able to work through vulnerable groups with its increased infectivity. South West didn't get much, if any, Kent variant.
OR it reflects Christmas hampered reduction progress, because the south wasn't allowed Christmas. I don't think it's that, because the timeframe is too long at 7 weeks.

Thanks @boys3, very interesting graphs and shows how different the trends have been across the country

Was part of the north west table chopped off, as I couldn’t see Cumbria or Lancashire (other than Blackburn)? Was particularly interested in Cumbria as they apparently had the Kent variant before Christmas?

Thanks @boys3 really interesting.

Apologies if this has already been posted, but very interesting article by dr Zoe Hyde (I know a few of you follow her on Twitter) about the issues of achieving hers immunity with the Oxford vaccine here

@Reastie

Apologies if this has already been posted, but very interesting article by dr Zoe Hyde (I know a few of you follow her on Twitter) about the issues of achieving hers immunity with the Oxford vaccine here

I’m concerned about the scientific credentials of someone who thinks you can directly compare results from different clinical trials. I would never get away with this in my job!

I'm surprised she's comparing the trials like that, and It's strange to take only the lower number 62% if you don't have an agenda when later trials seem to have adjusted that figure. Is it today that the USA trial completes? That will be useful, as well as MHRA report on study whenever it comes.

I also wonder why she thinks it isn't feasible to vaccinate everyone. Children are in trials now, so we can expect them to be able to get vaccines later. Then she cited "medical conditions", but we know over 90% of over 70s in the UK have been jabbed. There are some severely ill who couldn't be jabbed until they recover, and strong antibiotics are typically contraindicated (e.g. for BCG), but the vast majority of people don't take antibiotics for more than a few weeks at a time. Does anyone know what medications can't be taken when vaccinated to work out a percentage?

@Reastie

Apologies if this has already been posted, but very interesting article by dr Zoe Hyde (I know a few of you follow her on Twitter) about the issues of achieving hers immunity with the Oxford vaccine here

Thanks for this. I think her maths is basically sound - if a third or more of people can still transmit it will be hard to achieve herd immunity. I tried running some similar calculations myself and concluded that you can't achieve herd immunity and normal levels of social mixing unless you vaccinate children. She doesn't seem to consider that possibly, but there are trials going on, so I assume we will do so at some point, preferably as soon as we've finished the adults.

And of course you can compare results of different clinical trials - how on earth can you make real world much-needed decisions if you don't? There will be some margin of error in the figures, and she does seem to have used one of the lower estimates of effecacy of the Oxford vaccine that's floating around.

You can't take a figure of efficacy (defined as what?) of 62% from one trial and a figure of 95% from another trial and say the second drug is better than the first. The trials could have completely different designs, patient numbers, patient populations, definitions of efficacy, comparators, and indeed comparator effects. You can use statistical methods to compare them e.g. via a common comparator but that wouldn't necessarily give the same outcome as eyeballing the results. I work in pharmaceutical marketing - if I was preparing a promotional piece for the Pfizer vaccine and included the sentence such as "The efficacy of our vaccine is 95%, while that of the Novavax vaccine is 89% and that of the AZ vaccine is 62%", we would probably get a complaint from either competitor and have to pull the material.

I'm not commenting on any conclusions of her piece just pointing out that the methodology is pretty weak.