Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I've lost my part-time job as the shop I worked in has closed; I'm not allowed to visit my children or grandchildren; the library is closed, the gym is closed, the swimming pool is closed; the museums are closed; the adult education colleges are closed; i'm not allowed to visit my siblings, nor my elderly relatives. I'm not allowed to meet up with friends. Most of the shops I would visit or mooch around are closed.

Barely a lockdown? Sure feels like one to me.

Lockdown 3 is nowhere near the same as Lockdown 1 in terms of people’s reduced interaction. It’s barely a lockdown.

What is true is that the mobility indicators in the third lockdown are significantly higher than in the first lockdown. For London:

citymapper.com/cmi/london

Mobility during the first wave was down to under 10% of the normal level up until the second half of May. Right now it is double that. The number dropped to 18% at the very start of the lockdown but over past couple of weeks it has gone up over 20%.

Initially most of SAGE members and epidemiologists (and the Imperial-REACT team, in particular) were very concerned about the "high mobility indicators" and kept repeating the mantra regarding the need for additional restrictions.

However the numbers started to fall and fall rapidly. The experience of the third lockdown shows we do not need to lock everyone in their homes to keep R under 1. Some restrictions (e.g. closed secondary schools) are much more important than others (e.g. closed nurseries in Scotland).

France is saying if you have had covid before you only need one dose

www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-56048444

Have we seen the CDC advice now, that is you are a close contact, you do not need to isolate if you are fully vaccinated and have no symptoms?

Seems a bit gung-ho?

Article about the people who run the govt data dashboard!
inews.co.uk/news/politics/coronavirus-dashboard-gov-uk-public-health-england-team-interview-870463

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n383?fbclid=IwAR3Ofbp92_iqXAiQW9E8fwxzJEvhDfcrH-XyqmKZ-aZNpd3BzzaOnmXm4qI

• Israel and Italy seeing greater child case rates, urge caution re school reopening.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Have we seen the CDC advice now, that is you are a close contact, you do not need to isolate if you are fully vaccinated and have no symptoms?

Seems a bit gung-ho?

I've not seen that, no. Do you have a link? It seems a little risky, but would mean in the future we could have a much more normal life while living alongside a low level of Covid. Even with the new strain test and trace reckon only about 15% of close contacts test positive, so I guess the risk of you're fully vaccinated is quite low. Might make more sense for relatively low risk contacts (eg entire school classes, once they've vaccinated children of course), maybe less so for household members, who must be at a higher risk of catching it.

It would also put a lot of pressure on people to get vaccinated - I could see employers being less tolerant of staff who have to isolate because they've refused the jab and so not paying them. Interesting to see how that pans out.

@JanFebAnyMonth

https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n383?fbclid=IwAR3Ofbp92_iqXAiQW9E8fwxzJEvhDfcrH-XyqmKZ-aZNpd3BzzaOnmXm4qI

• Israel and Italy seeing greater child case rates, urge caution re school reopening.

Wouldn't that be a natural consequence of vaccinating the adults though?

Some good news from Israel here: www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-sees-only-544-covid-infections-among-523000-fully-vaccinated-israelis/

I think the most significant thing is that out of 544 detected cases there were no deaths and only 4 hospitalisations. We're running at about 9% of all detected cases ending up in hospital and 2% dying in the UK, so that suggests that the small proportion of people who the vaccine doesn't protect from catching it are nevertheless protected from severe disease.

Here it is @Firefliess
vaccinated persons with an exposure to someone with suspected or confirmed COVID-19 are not required to quarantinene_ if they meet all of the following criteria^†:
• Are fully vaccinated (i.e., ≥2 weeks following receipt of the second dose in a 2-dose series, or ≥2 weeks following receipt of one dose of a single-dose vaccine)
• Are within 3 months following receipt of the last dose in the series
• Have remained asymptomatic since the current COVID-19 exposure

www.cdc.gov/vaccines/covid-19/info-by-product/clinical-considerations.html
(c.60% down the page on my phone)

Re BMJ article on child rates - but surely Italy isn't vaccinating adults at the rate Israel is?

Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

France is saying if you have had covid before you only need one dose

This is pretty interesting isn’t it?

I wonder what Pfizer have to say. They weren’t happy about extending the interval. However, it sounds like the French have some study data to back this up, whereas we were just taking a punt on partial AZ data.

From the bbc news article you linked to Truely

The agency has not said how this recommendation could be acted on or how France would identify who has already contracted Covid-19 and when.

Percentage over 70s who've had the first dose from the BBC, great stats right across England but NI, Scotland and Wales lagging a bit:
ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/15B32/production/_116928888_vaccine_doses_eng_over7011feb-nc-1.png

Bah, it's showing as a link. Here it is downloaded and uploaded... Worth noting this is only to 7th Feb, so hopefully even higher by now.

How did Wales get from being on 73% of the over 70s on 7 February to declaring all of them done only a couple of days later? Higher refusal rate than England?

Wales has about 490,000 population over 70. The remaining 27% would be 132,300. Some might be unwell and unable to have it, but yes there must be a hefty set of refusers in there somewhere.

@JanFebAnyMonth

Re BMJ article on child rates - but surely Italy isn't vaccinating adults at the rate Israel is?

No, you're right, I don't think Italy has vaccinated enough adults to make much of a difference to the proportion of cases you'd expect to see in children. The data in the article about Italy is just about one area - looks to be one big outbreak probably based around a school. It is a worry that we'll see that here when we open schools. I still think having secondaries open to only half the year groups each week could be the way to go - breaks chains of infection, and much better for kids than being back in for 6 weeks, then out again for the remainder of the school year because they've closed schools down again.

just to give a bit more context to the lower percentage of NIs figures for over 70s vaccinated, they are going with a twin-track approach for vaccinations 65-69 and as of this weekend under 64 ECV can book online/by phone for mass vaccination centres whereas over 70s need to wait for their GP invite letter to be vaccinated at their GPs. So their daily numbers will likely include more 65-69 and ECV as a % than other parts of U.K. I think this is why they have a lower % vaccinated compared to England where mobile over 70s can book at the mass vaccination sites, which I think would have worked well in NI too, but I don’t know why it wasn’t considered. It’s also unlikely to be due to high vaccine refusal. (Anecdata) my old GPs surgery had 96% uptake for 75-79.

I found information that tells us how many have had which vaccine so far. From the MHRA yellow card report:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting
[I]This safety update report is based on detailed analysis of data up to 31 January 2021. At this date, an estimated 6.6 million first doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 3 million doses of the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine had been administered, and around 0.5 million second doses, mostly the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, had been administered.[I]

That's interesting @lurker. My 73 year old mum was very happy to travel to a mass vaccination centre (England). Am sure there must be people just like her in NI. It might be that their IT systems don't talk to each other so well in NI though - they wouldn't want to be giving over 70s vaccinations at the mass vaccination centres if they had no way of knowing not then to invite them to GP surgeries.

Sorry, my italics didn't work and I hit submit too soon.
20,319 Yellow Cards have been reported for the Pfizer/BioNTech and 11,748 have been reported for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine
Yellow card reporting is roughly equivalent to the number of doses given. It says roughly 3-4 reports per 1,000 doses for each vaccine, which is normal for vaccines.

In the week since the previous summary for 24 January 2021 we have received a further 3,563 Yellow Cards for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, 5,734 for the Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine and 22 where the brand was not specified. The Oxford University/AstraZeneca vaccine has seen a higher number of doses administered compared to the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine in the last week.
Yup. So proportion of Oxford Astrazeneca being given looks to be increasing as it's over 60% of the doses in the last week of January.

@Motorina, @MarshaBradyo - from the other threads, do you think this means for certain we didn't get 4.5m Oxford Astrazeneca doses from the EU? They didn't arrive, or they failed quality checks. I would guess we got just 530,000 that Hancock said were ready to go and the rest came from the UK.

@Firefliess

That's interesting *@lurker*. My 73 year old mum was very happy to travel to a mass vaccination centre (England). Am sure there must be people just like her in NI. It might be that their IT systems don't talk to each other so well in NI though - they wouldn't want to be giving over 70s vaccinations at the mass vaccination centres if they had no way of knowing not then to invite them to GP surgeries.

I'm not sure the English systems talks to each other, after my husband, also 73 and disabled, had his vaccination at a mass vaccination centre he was contacted by GP surgery to make an appointment explained he had it and system updated, we then had a call from the local nursing service to say as he was housebound (he isn't but is disabled) they were coming out to do his vaccination.

I'm also wondering about stats for BAME people, my husband is BAME but declined giving that information at the vaccination centre (he always does) so he was unclassified. If lots of BAME people feel like him there could be more BAME people being vaccinated than the stats indicate.

The English system that's updated with the vaccine is NIMS, that updates GP records in near real-time. In real life, GP systems vary and issues will occur, but it will get updated. It's probably more to do with the admin effort because it's such a huge exercise; if the GP or other services have already pre-prepared a list for calling then they would miss that he already had a vaccination.

We were more bemused that he is supposed to be housebound, no idea where that came from. We wouldn't have used that even if the nurse had phoned first. We felt going to the hub was good as it left local appointment for people who couldn't travel as far, 45 minute drive, but to be honest we also enjoyed going on the longest journey we'd been on in months. Only wish the nurse could go to my care home and do their jabs.