Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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Another 1200 less people in hospital from 9th to 10th (latest data point).

So about 5k/week less in hospital. Should be 15k by Boris’ speech on 22nd, and 10k by end of the month.

When will people admit this is done?

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases: 15,144: last Friday 19,114 Deaths: 758 - last Friday 1,104 Hospital admissions: 1,908 - last Friday 1,994

You need to be careful with comparing the hospital data - the 1,908 is actually the number admitted in the UK on Monday 8th, as not all data is collected fully from all trusts in the UK every day. Which compares to 2,598 the previous Monday.

The latest data from England is 1,531 for Tuesday, vs 2,222 for the previous Tuesday.

blimey! Did you get out of bed the wrong side?

Cases: 15,144: last Friday 19,114
Deaths: 758 - last Friday 1,104
Hospital admissions: not updated yet - last Friday 1,998

:)

1300* sorry.

@Doomsdayiscoming

Another 1200 less people in hospital from 9th to 10th (latest data point).

So about 5k/week less in hospital. Should be 15k by Boris’ speech on 22nd, and 10k by end of the month.

When will people admit this is done?

ZOE data (which had been a pretty reliable indicator so far) has stalled over the past few days.

It could be a blip but it’s definitely one to be wary of.

Zoe estimated daily transmission rate is actually down by nearly 5% day on day (14,818 to 14,074).

Zoe’s numbers for England are in continuous decline. The figures for other nations may be a bit noisy because Wales and Scotland do not invite Zoe users for testing and NI does not have enough contributors. As a result, when I look at Zoe I tend to focus on England and the trend here is still positive.

I now think Zoe gives us the best real time data available.

Tim Spector has published a blog post today “When can we ease lockdown”. He believes “we are soon to be in the same place we were in early June, with the advantage of having a large proportion of the population vaccinated which could mean good news in terms of lifting some restrictions sooner rather than later”.

What I also find interesting (based on Zoe data) is that Scotland follows the trajectory which is similar to the North of England. All the additional “more stringent” measures (e.g. nursery closures, restrictions on click and collect, etc) appear not to do much to the speed of the decline (in other words, they are pretty useless).

Still a bit strange to see Rutland as having the highest rate per 100,000 of any council in England. Although this is largely due to the outbreak in a prison.

Devon continues to blaze the downward trail. 6 councils with the lowest rates all in Devon with 5 of those now below 50 per 100,000, and Torridge at 16 per 100,000 not far away from a genuine application of the word low in relation to its rate.

A number of spectacular week on week decreases in some of those councils hit hard from the Kent variant. The figures below are the most recent 7 day rate and those to 3rd Jan just ahead of lockdown 3

Rother 58 from 690

Surrey Heath 86 from 848

Sevenoaks 89 from 833

Tower Hamlets 96 from 1259

Brentwood 105 from 1358

Epping Forest 116 from 1461

Basildon 131 from 1319

Whilst no one with half a brain would suggest their latest rates are remotely low their progress remains impressive.

@boys3
Agree entirely. However a bit worrying in the north west that while still declining slowly we have nowhere near as dramatic falls.
My council has been falling slowly from the 300 or so mark to 200 since early Jan. Am afraid it will stop falling. Is a similar story in most areas round here while rates in London and the Home Counties plummet. Places like Bolton have had it hard the whole time. A lot of speculation that it’s down to low paid workers unable to self isolate. But I can’t believe that doesn’t apply to some Londoners too.

By testing the same people each time though, the ONS survey is able to estimate the numbers of new people catching Covid each day - their incidence rate

but it can't be testing the same people each time because pcr testing cannot be used in 90 days after infection.

I've just asked a friend who is in the ONS survey and has had Covid and she says they do still keep testing you (and start doing monthly blood tests for antibodies too) - though it's possibly they're testing her but disregarding the positive results at the moment (it's only been a month since she had it)?

Thought this was a good discussion on ONS data mobile.twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1360200073255256064

Also this BMJ webinar was linked to and looks interesting m.youtube.com/watch?v=L9Bq4sOnfQE
suggesting less than half those with symptoms get tested.

@wintertravel1980 fair enough, but the ZOE estimates have definitely slowed this week; whether or not that’s going to be a continued trend I couldn’t say.

We were showing a clear 1k approx drop a day in predicted new daily cases and the last three days have been 15,925, 14,967, 14,816 and then today 14,097. I’m happy to accept that there are lot of variables and it’s not an absolute but it does illustrate that that this is far from ‘done’. It’s not paid off previously to ignore anomalies (Kent lockdown 2) and I don’t think it will now either. It’s worth keeping an eye on.

Paper on the impact of vaccination by priority group.
associationofanaesthetists-publications.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/anae.15442

via mobile.twitter.com/Anaes_Journal/status/1360149741531762691

@sirfredfredgeorge

By testing the same people each time though, the ONS survey is able to estimate the numbers of new people catching Covid each day - their incidence rate

but it can't be testing the same people each time because pcr testing cannot be used in 90 days after infection.

I think what they're doing is not counting any positives as new infections unless those individuals have not previously tested positive (or at least not for some weeks or months) I'd need to check the details, but they definitely have a measure of new daily infections, and they definitely track the same people each time, so I'm sure they can't be counting the same person who tests positive two times in a row as two new infections

[quote Cornettoninja]@wintertravel1980 fair enough, but the ZOE estimates have definitely slowed this week; whether or not that’s going to be a continued trend I couldn’t say.

We were showing a clear 1k approx drop a day in predicted new daily cases and the last three days have been 15,925, 14,967, 14,816 and then today 14,097. I’m happy to accept that there are lot of variables and it’s not an absolute but it does illustrate that that this is far from ‘done’. It’s not paid off previously to ignore anomalies (Kent lockdown 2) and I don’t think it will now either. It’s worth keeping an eye on.[/quote]
A day in day 5 percent drop does start becoming a smaller number, as numbers start to fall. A 5% fall from a starting point of 50,000 is 47,500 the next day. A 5% fall from 15,000 will mean 14,250 the next day.

It's not "done" by any means though, as those numbers are only falling because we're in a lockdown. It's not a natural state of things, as yet. The test will be whether we can keep them falling as we start to open up again.

@Frazzled2207 you are absolutely right. Whilst the overall England picture is undoubtedly positive in terms of confirmed cases reducing there is a clear variability in the downward trajectory. There almost seems to be a sort of squeezed middle, councils that never got close to the levels of the likes of Brentwood or Epping Forest but have seen almost a stop-start downward drift since the start of lockdown, and therefore have current rates two or three times higher than where those rapidly falling councils now are. If I get a chance I’ll post some scattergrams that show this more clearly.

That's an interesting paper @Coffee. Some odd assumptions in there though - 100% take-up, 100% protection from both hospitalisation and death (all a bit optimistic I would think), but zero prevention of transmission, which seems most unlikely, and far too pessimistic.

@Firefliess

Okay, maybe done is a stretch.

Lockdown 3 is nowhere near the same as Lockdown 1 in terms of people’s reduced interaction. It’s barely a lockdown. Yet we are seeing the same rapid decline. Immunity has come into play for sure. And my bet is that a core group of people have generated enough immunity to reduce transmission significantly; NHS workers, care home staff, public facing workers etc.

Maybe I’m wrong, who knows. But I’m pretty confident it will never get out of hand again.

Anecdotal but my friend who is a registered unpaid carer for a SEN child was vaccinated yesterday.

Another has been called for next week. So certainly in my area these individuals are included in cohort 6.

There may be pockets of low compliance but I think your assessment of it barely being lockdown is off. Do you have evidence ?

I have seen some evidence that more people are in work then first lockdown but the majority of people are not back in the office and mask wearing was not part of lockdown 1

You can't say barely lockdown when schools are closed. Other than school age were among the highest positivises when they were open, that also means more parents will be staying at home etc.

Yes, it isn't as much as the first lockdown, but it's still avoiding a lot of interactions.

@MargaretThursday

You can't say barely lockdown when schools are closed. Other than school age were among the highest positivises when they were open, that also means more parents will be staying at home etc.

Yes, it isn't as much as the first lockdown, but it's still avoiding a lot of interactions.

This

I think it really depends on who and where you are. The only people going out to to work on my entire road are 3 medical and 1 construction. They all worked out of the home in the last lockdown too. Literally everyone else is working from home again, though some had gone back for a while in autumn (a decision from their companies that I don't understand). Shops are closed, the park is busy but everyone keeps apart, people distance in the playgrounds. I still have Christmas presents upstairs for all my family and our gifts are in their house. It certainly feels like a lockdown here.

It’s a lockdown to me and my family but I live on a busy road and it’s almost as busy as ever. In lockdown 1 it was deadly and I could cross the road without any bother at all.
I really am not sure where everyone is going!