Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

At least 30% of UK population has had Covid

Interesting. Wasn't it as low as around 5% in the summer? I had assumed we would be looking at maybe 15% now.

As a teacher in a secondary school, I assume that I have been exposed at some point but the couple of times I had mild-ish symptoms, I tested negative. I also recently did an antibody test through the survey thing they're doing and that was negative. If we are at 30% or more, it would suggest a very high rate of asymptomatic cases would it not?

I’m definitely not strong on my maths but I don’t see how 30% is possible when we’ve only got approximately 4 million tested positively officially? I suppose if you were including the vaccinated and asymptomatic cases that might give you a highish estimate but 30%?

Ah gutted it's an audio recording, no chance of hearing that with kids!
30% of UK would be 20m people so that's 5x the 'confirmed tested'.

Not completely beyond the realms of possibility but would be interested to know how it's calculated.

I read a varient of this article somewhere today, and I took it to mean 30% immunity from infection and from the vaccines combined? Was that not the case?

My maths is pants.

I thought be meant that 30% has literally had covid. If you assume an IFR of about 0.5% then it’s broadly consistent with the number of deaths in the UK. Also consistent with recent US studies.

I think it was 30% had covid immunity from vaccination and having caught covid

Even if 30% of the population has had it, for a lot of people that immunity may have waned, or may be inadequate. Therefore it's difficult to estimate immunity levels in my opinion.

It was only 15.3% estimated to have had Covid only a month ago: news.sky.com/story/covid-19-15-3-of-englands-population-estimated-to-have-had-coronavirus-by-mid-january-12207328.
19% vaccinated.
34.3% isn't as snappy as 30%.

Unfortunately I struggle with video/ audio as I'm working or with a toddler. If anyone remembers enough to do a quick summary of the More or Less show that would be great please, totally understand if it's too much effort though.

I have listened again and he very clearly says one third of population naturally infected. That’s definitely what he says. Not including vaccinations.

“we think it might be up to a third” are his words.

Yes, he says "up to a third, certainly 30%" , not sure where that comes from as ONS estimate to mid January (for England) was half that: news.sky.com/story/covid-19-15-3-of-englands-population-estimated-to-have-had-coronavirus-by-mid-january-12207328

I found this which was over 30% in London by same point. Cambridge estimates: www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/r-rate-london-falling-below-one-lockdown-b899850.html%3famp

I did an antibody test for Imperial college a couple of weeks ago. Maybe he is going off their own research running at the moment?

Well it's definitely not more than a third, so I suppose saying "up to" gives a fair amount of scope.

Not that sure about these antibody tests. They say it doesn't matter if only a faint pink line. However seem to have a vapour line issue. Like cheap pregnancy tests.

The bottom line is only there depending on how you look at the test/light etc

I TOTALLY see how one would put blood on the B instead of the S. Would it have been such a bother to print words on it, add an arrow or something?

What happens if you sum ONS numbers for cases? According to them we have 5% of the general population having had it in 2021 (and many not in the general population to add to that) Add on another 5% for December, add on 3% for November, add on 2% for September and October. So ONS estimates higher than 15.3% doesn't it? I'd have to dig out the actual figures and do a proper sum I guess. Obviously that double counts anyone who has had it twice.

An updated NERVTAG paper on the severity of the “Kent” variant has been published.
www.gov.uk/government/publications/nervtag-update-note-on-b117-severity-11-february-2021?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=govuk-notifications&utm_source=b6297c0b-901b-4db7-9b7e-9d22914d25c3&utm_content=immediately

It says additional analyses “strengthen the earlier finding of increased severity”.

It is now considered “likely” as opposed to a “realistic possibility”.

For anyone concerned by reading this, I would say it’s important to note the “limitations” section in this paper.

Hospital outcomes appear to be no different – and all but two analyses are based on Pillar 2 (community) data.

There is still quite a lot of uncertainty.

via mobile.twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1360223733789712386

I'll wait patiently for you to do the count @sirfredfredgeorge. My only worry with ONS is that we worked out they are testing people each month even if they were positive before, so some people might feasibly show up infectious in several periods. (PCR instructions are usually not to repeat within 3 months.)

I had a go at working out the proportion of the population who've had Covid by looking back at the ONS infection surveys' estimates of the numbers catching it each day for the period since July and then estimating the numbers for pre-July based on hospital admissions (assuming they comprised the same proportion of all infections pre and post July) It came out at 27% having had Covid by mid January, so the estimate of 30% sounds about right to me. I did see some published analysis that used a similar approach to my own and reached very similar numbers, but can't recall the reference unfortunately - I think it was a university, possibly UCL.

I'm interested in why he thinks the new variants will not evade the vaccine though? The recent SA study seemed to suggest that it would evade the Oxford vaccine.

@MRex

I'll wait patiently for you to do the count *@sirfredfredgeorge*. My only worry with ONS is that we worked out they are testing people each month even if they were positive before, so some people might feasibly show up infectious in several periods. (PCR instructions are usually not to repeat within 3 months.)

By testing the same people each time though, the ONS survey is able to estimate the numbers of new people catching Covid each day - their incidence rate. Their numbers have quite consistently been about 4 times higher than reported case rates for each period.

Cases: 15,144: last Friday 19,114
Deaths: 758 - last Friday 1,104
Hospital admissions: 1,908 - last Friday 1,994

UK first dose vaccinations total: 14,012,224

(up 503,116 on the day before, 7-day average 434,456)
That is 21.0% of the total population.
mobile.twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1360258239108112388

@AlecTrevelyan006

Cases: 15,144: last Friday 19,114 Deaths: 758 - last Friday 1,104 Hospital admissions: 1,908 - last Friday 1,994

Wrong.

Not all of those are updated for today.

1908 is from 8th. No idea where you have 1994 from for last Friday? Last Friday was 1998.