Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th Feb

[NoGoodPunsLeft]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@PurpleWh1teGreen

Re the glasses cloth - I bought mine from amazon but I think high st opticians also sell them if anyone doesn't want to add to the amazon billions

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Thank you, a couple of those going in with DHs birthday presents in a couple of weeks time.

I believe the true answer for who should isolate lies somewhere between PCR and LFT, the PCR test shows someone has / has had covid, but not that they are infectious. The LFTs are likely to miss some infectious cases, especially but not entirely early cases. The government have pushed LFTs to find more cases, that much is both obvious and explained. That's because more cases found = fewer onward transmissions.
The rest, about variants being made up, vaccines perhaps pointless etc - all regular bullshit conspiracy theory stuff. It's standard operating procedure to mix truth with fiction by these type of people, it helps to cast just enough smoke for their insidious messages about the virus not being deadly etc to pass through.

Yes I agree @MRex. B Thought the graphs were interesting though.

Discussed by a scientist and some disabled people. Scientist said at one point that eg in an Italian study, those with Down's were dying on average at 52, whereas the general population's average age at death was 78.

Considering average life expectancy these days is 50-60, this statement is largely meaningless!

@JanFebAnyMonth
The most comprehensive study suggested that people with down syndrome have a similar risk of death from Covid-19 at age 40 to that of people without down syndrome at age 80, so quite a significant increase.

www.t21rs.org/results-from-covid-19-and-down-syndrome-survey/

Thanks @pinkpip100, hadn't seen that study or those stats.

R4 PM programme, discussing the appallingly high ratio of disabled victims of Covid up to November

More or Less was discussing the definition of “disabled” recently. It seems very wide (one in five people are disabled).

www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000s2jq

I don’t know if it’s the definition used above.

The most comprehensive study suggested that people with down syndrome have a similar risk of death from Covid-19 at age 40 to that of people without down syndrome at age 80, so quite a significant increase

Not wanting to down play it, but is it a big increase? Life expectancy for the average 80 year old is a little over 10years, that is not that dissimilar to the average life expectancy at 40 for someone with Down's syndrome, especially if we partitioned off those 80 year olds with conditions that are more often found in people with Down's syndrome?

Of course, it doesn't change the real loss of the individual, and losing 20% of your life is more significant, it's all very sad how very much worse the outcomes are for covid patients if you're already vulnerable.

Not wanting to down play it, but is it a big increase? Life expectancy for the average 80 year old is a little over 10years, that is not that dissimilar to the average life expectancy at 40 for someone with Down's syndrome, especially if we partitioned off those 80 year olds with conditions that are more often found in people with Down's syndrome?

@sirfredfredgeorge I don't think the average life expectancy in the UK is 90 though is it? Isn't it more like 80? Therefore the average remaining life expectancy for an 80 year old would be nowhere near 10 years? But the average life expectancy for someone with down syndrome is more like 60 nowadays, so potentially at 40 they should still have remaining life expectancy of around 20 years. That sounds like a very big difference to me.

In general, people with learning disabilities have a considerably higher chance of dying from Covid-19 than those without: www.gov.uk/government/news/people-with-learning-disabilities-had-higher-death-rate-from-covid-19

Actually @sirfredfredgeorge I've just read up on it and although average life expectancy at birth is around 80, by age 80 it is around 90, so you're absolutely right about that, sorry for misunderstanding. However, I assume the same would apply for someone with down syndrome - average life expectancy at birth might be 50-60, but by age 40 that would have increased at least to the upper end of that range.
Amongst the ds community it is widely accepted that adults with ds are at considerably higher risk than the wider population (and therefore on the shielding list and prioritised for vaccination).

Therefore the average remaining life expectancy for an 80 year old would be nowhere near 10 years?

Average life expectancy overall in the UK is around 81.

However, that is an average for all, those who die young bring the average down; once someone actually manages to makes it to 80, then they can expect on average to live to 90.

Not all disabled people are vulnerable to covid, and I don't understand how the increased vulnerabilities to covid are being statistically separated for the figures about disabled people dying. There are surely different groups; 1) Disabled and CEV, 2) Disabled with increased vulnerability, 3) Disavled no extra covid vulnerability. Then there is the added dimension of exposure with increased risk of catching covid from carers, but not everyone who's disabled has non-family additional carers. Any articles I've seen don't appear to have made adjustments at all, where obviously there's an enormous difference between e.g. someone who has Down's syndrome living in a care home (CEV and exposure risk) and someone deaf living at home (neither). Average number of years of life lost could be useful for this, but needs to take into account the different groups, including separating vulnerability from exposure, to actually analyse the reasons for the increased deaths. Has anyone seen more effective analysis of the issue?

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-mental-health-and-wellbeing-surveillance-spotlights/pre-existing-mental-health-conditions-spotlight

This is an interesting publication, which shows that severe mental illness is correlated with increased risk of death from covid-19.

I think the problem is that it is very hard to parcel people up into those discrete categories of risk. Disabled people face a range of health inequalities for all sorts of reasons. Take severe mental illness, the most severely unwell will be in hospital or supported accommodation. Then lots of psychiatric medication can increase risk of obesity and insulin resistance. Then there's potential issues around ability to follow covid guidelines, can they wear a face mask etc. etc.

Even your hypothetical Deaf person who is not at increased risk may actually end up being at increased risk if they and their family don't wear face masks to allow them to lip read.

That's really interesting @NuttyinNotts thanks for posting it.

Yes it's definitely complex and would be incredibly hard to separate out into discrete categories of risk. For example, someone with a severe learning disability might have no additional health vulnerabilities and not be cared for by anyone outside their family, but might struggle to articulate how they are feeling, therefore not access appropriate medical support at the right time, which could impact on the path of illness. (That's just an example to illustrate, not suggesting at all that this would be the case for everyone). I would imagine that the health inequalities experienced by the disabled community are pretty widespread and unlikely to be explained just by their clinical vulnerabilities or care status?

The More or Less link above had a detailed and nuanced discussion of the term disabled and the risks for different subgroups.

Thanks @borntobequiet will try to listen later.

I think I read on this thread that carers can have the vaccine? Does anyone have any information on this?
(And thanks for all the analysis:-))

Unpaid carers have been included in group 6, I think they either have to be receipt of carers allowance or registered with their gp as a carer.

@icesnowrain

I think I read on this thread that carers can have the vaccine? Does anyone have any information on this? (And thanks for all the analysis:-))

My colleagues, carers, are now able to book online and should all get done this weekend.

Are you employed as a carer? If so your employer should have details of how you book. Not sure if a family carer, I'm my husband's carer but just waiting for the over 65s to get it, I could use the link from work but as I can work from home I don't feel that is appropriate.

Ah yea sorry I meant unpaid family carers. I'm thinking of my sil who cares for fil and is pretty vulnerable herself for various health reasons but doesn't seem to be being included in the early rollout and is only 59.

@pinkpip100

Unpaid carers have been included in group 6, I think they either have to be receipt of carers allowance or registered with their gp as a carer.

Thanks, I'll let her know, I'm not sure if she gets carers allowance or if her gp knows she's a carer. V worried about her as she has health conditions and is very overweight too and may well be a higher priority due to that alone but it's hard to broach that subject:-(.

@icesnowrain

Ah yea sorry I meant unpaid family carers. I'm thinking of my sil who cares for fil and is pretty vulnerable herself for various health reasons but doesn't seem to be being included in the early rollout and is only 59.

If she doesn't claim carers allowance she needs to register with her gp as a carer - it was a simple online form for my surgery. Although as they haven't reached that group yet I'm still not convinced that they'll include unpaid carers!

ONS survey figures, 1 in 80 approx for England last week up to 6th

today's ONS survey report & figures here

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/12february2021

Jack sits down with Britain’s top epidemiologist, Professor Neil Ferguson, to discuss how the next few months of the coronavirus pandemic are likely to pan out — and why things went so badly wrong last year.

Professor Neil Ferguson, the man dubbed “Professor Lockdown” explains his “fervent hope” that Britain’s astonishing vaccine successes mean life can finally start getting back to something like normal in 2021, but that booster jabs and coronavirus passports may be with us for some time to come. Ferguson also recalls those frantic days in early March 2020 when it became clear Britain had got its initial response so badly wrong. And he discusses the trolls and the conspiracy theorists who attack scientists and deny the virus is even real.
www.politico.eu/podcast/meet-prof-neil-ferguson-life-after-the-coronavirus-pandemic/

Key points:

We should be in equivalent of Tier 2 by May, maybe Tier 1 in some areas.

Normality by/before this time next year.

Risk of variant emerging in UK “at least as great, if not greater” as importing one from abroad.

All UK adults could be offered a vaccine “by summer”.

Lockdown must be eased slowly, with at least 3 week intervals, or restrictions may have to be reimposed.

Variant that can completely evade vaccines is “unlikely”.

At least 30% of UK population has had Covid.

mobile.twitter.com/BenKentish/status/1360184054021320709

Good post Coffee

This feels new?

At least 30% of UK population has had Covid.

I’m not surprised at all but has this been said lately? I feel like we usually get antibody stat instead which is lower