Is anyone actually going to follow the rules from spring?

[Cloudsurfing]

It will have been a year since being allowed to properly see friends and family. Even in summer last year you still had to social distance so seeing family was difficult, and some areas had tighter restrictions throughout. Everyone I know is going to see family and friends from spring, regardless of what restrictions there are. I am too. The government do know that most people won’t stick to it from then, right?

Is anyone on here actually going to not see family at that point? I know Mumsnet seems to be full of people who are happy to isolate for years if need be, but are you actually going to?

[quote IrishMamaMia]@PracticingPerson you make some god points but didn't many people in the scientific community say restrictions last summer would put us in a good place for October 2020? Hollow laugh.
The government and their long term policies have completely shafted people here.[/quote]
The government opened earlier than advised, if they'd followed scientific advice cases would have been lower by September.

For example - Eat Out to Help Out was not a scientist's idea, that was a politician's idea.

@PracticingPerson surely you can see that it doesn't matter if I meet up with a friend when we don't have border closures or a proper quarantine system?

What I don't understand is the various people upthread who are trying to justify things with 'lockdown and restrictions aren't working' statements.

You only need to look at the daily/weekly statistics to see that the restrictions very much are working. There is a time delay between infections->hospitalisations->deaths, but the numbers are very much coming down now.

With the vaccines and good weather coming things will improve, but the more people who jump the gun, the longer this goes on for the rest of us.

stealth I agree. The idea that we all have to be vaccinated before we can have any kind of normality is really absurd, but some are actually welded to this idea/fantasy without any consideration whatsoever of the damage being done to economy, mental health, other life threatening disease and the future.
It appears for some people the only thing that now matters is covid.

[quote Blurp]@RedToothBrush thank you for your posts.

I'm surprised at how many people are surprised this is still going on. It's been said from the start (by scientists who have expertise) that it would be potentially 18 months of disruption. It's panning out broadly how we'd expect a pandemic to pan out. The virus is behaving the way we'd expect viruses to behave.

People seem to think that lockdown isn't working because the virus is still here - that's not true, because lockdown is not about eliminating the virus. It's about keeping cases under control so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Lockdown doesn't carry on until the virus has gone; it carries on until there are enough ICU vacancies to take the risk of increasing infection levels again.

It's not going to get better just because we're all "fed up" and want it to be better. It's going to get better when vaccine programs have been rolled out, cures or treatments have improved and the virus has mutated to become less lethal (which most viruses do eventually). These things will happen, but they will take time.[/quote]
Thank you! Very well said

No, every single restriction needs to be removed. Either the vaccines work or they don't. Even if they don't we can't carry on with all this beyond spring. That will have been a year of society shut down.

Yes

@PracticingPerson scientists have also recommended border closure.

[quote IrishMamaMia]@PracticingPerson surely you can see that it doesn't matter if I meet up with a friend when we don't have border closures or a proper quarantine system?[/quote]
They both matter.

Both would be better.

One or the other make a difference.

Neither would be worse.

I will not be sticking to any further restrictions once they’ve done all the priority groups. The exception is if the South African variant really isn’t impacted by the vaccine in which case I’ll grumble but probably broadly stick to the guidelines (although I’d still see my own parents but not friends or other family). I just hope the government realises this and lets the poor pubs and restaurants and tourist industry open too rather than forcing them to take the hit while everyone merrily socialises at home anyway.

Think is, most of us live in an echo chamber, having contact with mostly likeminded people, looking on sites with like minded people etc. So OP is hearing that ‘everyone’ will ignore the restriction by Spring, but that doesn’t mean it’s true, in my life I know no one who is planning to ignore the restrictions, however much they may hate them. The research available seems to be suggest that most people, albeit a small proportion than a year ago, will continue to observe the restrictions as required.

No. Enough is enough. This isn't living, it's existing. I don't want to be saved from a virus that probably won't kill me. I'll be seeing my parents and my sister, and won't stop my teenagers from meeting up with friends.

I think the variants are presenting us a choice between doing this thoroughly this time, so from say September/October 2021 onwards everything is reliably better

You have absolutely no guarantees this is the case. And it’s sounds like more moving the goalposts. ‘Honestly, wait til the autumn, it’ll all be fine then.’ We’ve heard all this before.

People are sick of being strung along and denied basic human needs like seeing family. I think many are prepared to hold off til (this lot of) vaccines kick in, but there has to be reassessment if that doesn’t ‘work’ because this is not sustainable.

[quote IrishMamaMia]@PracticingPerson scientists have also recommended border closure.[/quote]
Yes, I know, and I advise every person who wants out of this to write angry letters to their MP.

Meanwhile in the next two weeks 200,000 people will be arriving through our airports and ports with no quarantine whatsoever with any number of possible variants with them....

@speaksofty

I suspect there are many MN on here that are themselves over fifty, so are now thinking if they hold on just for a little while, they can be vaccinated and therefore protected in perhaps a matter of weeks.

THEY are willing to continue to support the lockdown for their own benefit, not ours. They are not really considering the 31 year old that is looking at mid summer before there is any chance of a vaccine, or the 25 year old that is looking at the autumn. Just trying to cover their own arses, so they can enjoy their lives without worrying covid.

I find it incredibly selfish, and disingenuous.

Yep its noticable on this thread.

"We I get vaccinated I will be... "

We believe that transmission is stopped in older variants but no conclusive evidence of this. The Eeek variants (SA and new uk mutations) seem to be showing resistance to this though and it seems transmission is still possible. But we dont fully have evidence either way yet.

We dont really know the effectiveness of one jab in over 65s just yet.

It needs repeating that we are allowing a false sense of security to creep in too early. The over 65s overwhelmingly still need a second jab. And we have not started the over 50s. And whilst death in under 50s isnt common, long covid is frequent enough to be a real concern.

But the mentally of thinking its safe after 1 jab is taking hold and the mentality of ignoring the rest of the population who aren't protected whilst theres been months of telling the young who rule break they are selfish for putting them at risk is staggering hypocrisy.

If it's not the SA variant it will be a new one , then another one and another one .
So really , do what you want to do . If you want to live in fear for the rest of your life , just do that , your choice. .
I don't really care what other people do I'm just sick of hearing about them having to validate it to themselves.
I'll see close friends and family , but I'm a middle aged mum , I didnt have a busy social life before all this anyway !
Young people and kids ... well i expect them to live their lives and enjoy themselves , they deserve it . I for one wont be looking at them like they are evil.

Yes.

Because restrictions aren't in place for control reasons (it's a Tory government FFS livers of small government and big enterprise, who won't stall the economy for a second more than the minimum they think necessary - see EOTHO)

So if cases remain high enough to need restrictions, then yes, I will accept them and abide by them. Not because I'm happy about them (the perpetual straw man argument) but because I think the alternative is even worse - especially if it involves new variants and vaccine escape. But I don't think it'll come to that (or am I just hoping?)

Household mixing might have a negative impact on schools staying open

This suggests half of ITU patients are under 60 which is what I thought.

@TheKeatingFive

I think the variants are presenting us a choice between doing this thoroughly this time, so from say September/October 2021 onwards everything is reliably better

You have absolutely no guarantees this is the case. And it’s sounds like more moving the goalposts. ‘Honestly, wait til the autumn, it’ll all be fine then.’ We’ve heard all this before.

People are sick of being strung along and denied basic human needs like seeing family. I think many are prepared to hold off til (this lot of) vaccines kick in, but there has to be reassessment if that doesn’t ‘work’ because this is not sustainable.

I have no guarantees. No one does.

This would be easy if there were guarantees.

If you could guarantee that us all unlocking on a faster timetable won't lead to another major problem, I would bite your hand off.

That's what we are all dealing with, the unknown. No point getting cross about that aspect, as we are all faced with the same uncertainty.

But scientists have been consistently closer to right than the government, so that gives me a steer. But you can view things differently of course. Because neither of us know.

I won't be. I've already been seeing my parents.

@Pollypocket1235

Yes. I have been vaccinated along with the older members of my family. But my children haven’t or my partner.

I’ll follow the rules to reduce community spread to those vulnerable people (including children) who may no be able to be vaccinated.

I’ll follow the rules so that the nhs can function. I don’t want to die from something like an appendix because my local hospital is full

Was getting very despondent reading the number of people saying “I’ve had the vaccine so I’m alright Jack” on here until I read this. Thank you

I know when i told a bunch of people in March last year that things would last 12 to 18 months and to mentally prepare for that rather than 6 weeks i was shot down in flames for being so pessimistic. The trouble is thats the reality of a pandemic and the fact the public were not adequately explained this is part of issues now. There is a lack of proper comprehesion of infrastructure as it is. This combined with flat out ignorance of a pandemic and what restrictions are for and achieve is part of the problem.

Its the millennium bug debate revisited AGAIN.

People don't want to believe something so they bury their heads in the sand about reality.

But scientists have been consistently closer to right than the government, so that gives me a steer.

Scientists are only concerned with virus spread.

Not the economic consequences, mental health of the nation, democratic rights of the people and so on. They all matter.