Is anyone actually going to follow the rules from spring?

[Cloudsurfing]

It will have been a year since being allowed to properly see friends and family. Even in summer last year you still had to social distance so seeing family was difficult, and some areas had tighter restrictions throughout. Everyone I know is going to see family and friends from spring, regardless of what restrictions there are. I am too. The government do know that most people won’t stick to it from then, right?

Is anyone on here actually going to not see family at that point? I know Mumsnet seems to be full of people who are happy to isolate for years if need be, but are you actually going to?

I am very surprised that the critical thinking in this country seems to have entirely drained away. Perhaps it is the factories called schools endlessly teaching compliance.

We were promised that restrictions would ease when the most vulnerable are vaccinated, I am most certainly holding the government to that promise. The young have been sacrificed enough.

I have to say though I don’t really understand people who aren’t going anywhere (eg wfh, online shopping, only going for walks - eg my sister) not going to see family. If I was doing that and could stay in totally for ten days beforehand I’d see my parents inside now if they were happy with it, but because I’m on buses and in a classroom with quite a few children every day it’s not possible. So I think it depends.

Yes maybe we do need to discuss risk that but people do need to accept scientific basics for the discussion to be meaningful:

1. there will be a large pool of circulating virus unless we suppress it (the entire under 18 population for starters, plus by May everyone over 50 has had no jab)
2. variants risk the whole vaccine programme failing
3. variants are more likely to cause issues if we don't suppress transmission

If we do vaccination, suppression and border quarantine, we could get to a really good place before next winter (wherever we are in October we would expect it to be worse by January, so it would be wise to be in a good place by October)

@TheKeatingFive

Nope. I’m seeing my parents as soon as they’re fully vaccinated.

This is what I'm scared of. The new SA variant will tear through wont it 😩

Just taking it day by day tbh.

Also its not granny age 84 who even makes it to the ICU ward...

Yes, I will, because selfishly I'd like to be in a position where I can go to the pub, go to cafes with friends etc and none of that will happen until cases are low and remaining low. I also really, really need surgery at the moment and can't have it because fucking covid means there's no space in the hospitals.

red you can change the FACT that the average age of death from covid is 82.4 years old no matter how much you try.

Fair enough y5teacher

Agree restrictions could start to be lifted after Easter. But a slow lifting as we want cases to keep on falling.

I will do what im allowed to do basically.

If need be yes. I have vulnerable family members. Haven't seen them since late 2019 and it's horrible.
Infection rates local to me are high and I am not prepared to put other people's lives at risk.

Of where DS is concerned. In fact I’m happy to bend the rules now by letting him play out in our cul-de-sac or go to the skatepark and if his friends happen to do the same then so be it. He’s already lost a year of his childhood to Covid that he can never, ever get back.

Of course I can’t force the government to open schools, sports clubs or pub and restaurants so we’ll have to abide by those rules.

Yes - and I cannot believe the sheer selfishness and lack of critical thinking ability and foresight of those who are not.

I'm seeing my friends this spring/summer.

I suspect there are many MN on here that are themselves over fifty, so are now thinking if they hold on just for a little while, they can be vaccinated and therefore protected in perhaps a matter of weeks.

THEY are willing to continue to support the lockdown for their own benefit, not ours. They are not really considering the 31 year old that is looking at mid summer before there is any chance of a vaccine, or the 25 year old that is looking at the autumn. Just trying to cover their own arses, so they can enjoy their lives without worrying covid.

I find it incredibly selfish, and disingenuous.

Of course we are keeping the rules.

As a 40 year old I'm not eagerly wanting a vaccine although I'll gladly take it when offered. When the vulnerable are vaccinated, when hospitals can cope, I want to get back to some sort of normality.

Yes I will be following the rules having a child who is shielding I can not and will not take the risk. Having seen how ill some ‘normal’ children have reacted I will not take the risk. Having not been back to school since March I will keep my child home for as long as needed and will home school if needed.

This is what I'm scared of. The new SA variant will tear through wont it

No. Not if we have the tools to identify strains. I believe about 5% of samples were being tested for variants.

If we can get on top of cases we can increase this %. If our capacity to identify variants is high this limits the ability of new variants to take hold as we can focus track and trace capabilities and testing far better.

We are now seeing small localised areas being identified and targeted for mass testing to combat this.

We just need to get to a position where things are managable. This is where we needed to be last September but we werent. Lack of capacity in our infrastructure was our problem.

We now have that capacity if we keep cases low and manage the problem better. We can be more like some of the south east Asian countries we held up as examples - they had better existing infrastructure at the start of the outbreak because of lessons learnt through SARS which were taken seriously by planners. We have learnt a harder way because we were unprepared for an outbreak.

Where we are now is fundamentally different to September and light years away from March.

We are getting on top of things.

@RedToothBrush thank you for your posts.

I'm surprised at how many people are surprised this is still going on. It's been said from the start (by scientists who have expertise) that it would be potentially 18 months of disruption. It's panning out broadly how we'd expect a pandemic to pan out. The virus is behaving the way we'd expect viruses to behave.

People seem to think that lockdown isn't working because the virus is still here - that's not true, because lockdown is not about eliminating the virus. It's about keeping cases under control so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Lockdown doesn't carry on until the virus has gone; it carries on until there are enough ICU vacancies to take the risk of increasing infection levels again.

It's not going to get better just because we're all "fed up" and want it to be better. It's going to get better when vaccine programs have been rolled out, cures or treatments have improved and the virus has mutated to become less lethal (which most viruses do eventually). These things will happen, but they will take time.

My parents, grandma and vulnerable sister will have been vaccinated by then, so we will be seeing them. We will keep it in the garden and social distance, if needs be, but I’m definitely seeing them. I haven’t seen my 93 yr old grandma for 11 months and I miss her. The dc miss her and she misses them. I’ve been following the rules to the letter but I need to see my family now.

We'll do what we have to do here. Have to say we've seen all our family and most friends at some point over the last year as they're all within same country. It's been within guidelines and socially distanced outside, even my elderly Mum who is very much on her own.

@PracticingPerson you make some god points but didn't many people in the scientific community say restrictions last summer would put us in a good place for October 2020? Hollow laugh.
The government and their long term policies have completely shafted people here.

I think the variants are presenting us a choice between doing this thoroughly this time, so from say September/October 2021 onwards everything is reliably better, or having another summer easing with another winter bounceback potentially to follow.

I agree we are in a much better place than March. It is just a case of banking our winnings, not staying at the table I think.

I'm in Scotland where dc do not need to socially distance and are not included in household or group numbers so depending on the restrictions of adult households I won't find it hard at all. One other household is tough and means timetabling but still doable, but I don't even know enough people for keeping it to 6 and under to be a problem. I don't mind standing 2 meters apart and my parents are my support bubble.