10 million people vaccinated already - brilliant!

[buttery81]

This is a continuation of the previous thread, www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4145954-6-3-million-people-vaccinated-already-brilliant

This thread is intended as a positive place to observe our remarkable vaccine rollout as it progresses and to celebrate the ever increasing numbers as we go.

Polite notice: conspiracy theorists, doommongers and those looking for endless debate over vaccine efficacy, leave vs remain and one-legged trousers - this is probably not the thread for you.

So, to pick up from where we left off... a truly tremendous 10,021,471 people in the UK have now received their first dose of the vaccine - that’s 18.9% (or 1 in every 5.3) of all UK adults.

There’s no doubt about it - there is an unmistakable light at the end of this long, long tunnel and every day it’s getting brighter. Come on folks - let’s do this!!

even my 9yo DD tells me 'it's 4pm check the data!'

Haha!

Forgot to say... I was thinking earlier, it’s been 10 weeks (well, 9 weeks and 6 days to be precise) since the very first UK citizen, Margaret Keenan, had the vaccine.

To have jabbed 15.3 million people in just 10 weeks is a truly astonishing achievement!

Correct me if I’m wrong, but I think Matt Hancock said the next target is to vaccinate everyone over 50 by the end of April. I’m assuming that means everyone in groups 1-9 on this graphic. There’s 38.7 million people in those 9 groups and we’ve jabbed 15.3 million so far.

If I’ve understood it correctly, it’s certainly an ambitious target! Can we do it?

Is it that ambitious though?
mobile.twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1361255399094185987

See also:
mobile.twitter.com/harrytlambert/status/1361333883741089793

and

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/whitehall-sources-predict-all-over-50s-will-get-covid-vaccine-by-end-of-march-28p9hqz2g

Also, I think it's 32 million once you omit overlaps (people in more than one group)?

So almost half way there already...

Pretty sure it's not 32 million. More like 17 so more than doable at current rates.

I think the issue will be vaccine supply up until April, which would mean you can't get through all 5-9 before the 2nd doses kick in and therefore that the rate would slow down while you finish off 5-9 and then do 2nd doses on top.

I’d rather be confident for April and then pleasantly surprised by March than hopeful for March and disappointed by April.

Sir Simon Stevens said at least 3 times that the number of people in this next phase is greater than that in the first phase, plus they have second jabs to do.

My uncle had his this morning, he's 70.

My MIL had hers tonight, she is 64 but FIL is CEV so they brought hers forward.

One of my colleagues has got hers on Wednesday, she's 21 and I think has asthma so group 6?

Delighted so many people are being jabbed!

@CoffeeandCroissant interesting, thanks for the links. I suppose 23.4 million by end of April sounds like a lot at first, but when you analyse it, it’s eminently doable. And as others have pointed out, the figure is actually lower because of overlap between groups.

Anyway, it’s all good news, because if we can jab 38.7 million people by the end of April (including 2nd doses for many people) then that will be a tremendous result!

I think the issue will be vaccine supply up until April, which would mean you can't get through all 5-9 before the 2nd doses kick in and therefore that the rate would slow down while you finish off 5-9 and then do 2nd doses on top.

Yes, it’s going to be interesting to see what happens to the numbers when the need to start second doses in a big way properly kicks in. In Coffee’s link above, Hugo Gye suggests that’ll be end of March, so we have about 1.5 months to go before we start revisiting those who’ve already had their 1st dose!

@Eggsley

My uncle had his this morning, he's 70.

My MIL had hers tonight, she is 64 but FIL is CEV so they brought hers forward.

One of my colleagues has got hers on Wednesday, she's 21 and I think has asthma so group 6?

Delighted so many people are being jabbed!

🥳

I have always felt end of March for all 9 groups is totally do able. However Hancock saying end of April. So reckon I will aim my Hopes for April 15th

Wow - NHS chief thinks we’re capable or doubling vaccination capacity! That would mean a million people A DAY!

@CoffeeandCroissant another thought though: if you think about what AstraZeneca said recently, which is that they can supply 2 million doses of vaccine on average per week to the UK, the end of April target does sound rather ambitious! As to achieve the 38.7 million figure we would need to jab 2.2 million people a week or thereabouts, and that’s not including second doses. Obviously that doesn’t take into account any other vaccines (like Moderna and J&J) coming into play, which would give us more capacity.

www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-britain-astrazenec-idUSKBN2962NT

And more great stats and graphs from Israel twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1361320927573794820?s=21

As pointed out in the thread, the decline in hospitalisations happens too soon for it to be due to the second dose, it’s the effect of the first dose.

I think it's 32 million total in groups 1 to 9 though, so less the 15.3 million already done, that leaves 16.7 million still to go (but that would be with 100% take up, so in reality, slightly less?)

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum

I have always felt end of March for all 9 groups is totally do able. However Hancock saying end of April. So reckon I will aim my Hopes for April 15th

I’m sure that was originally the aim. But factoring in the second doses and potential supply problems then I think giving a more realistic date, which should be extremely achievable at this rate, makes sense.

I feel a bit like that annoying kid in the car "are we nearly there, yet?"
Does anyone know the target date for when groups 1-4* will have been offered their second dose? I am guessing it's by the end of May, if we keep up the current progress. :-D

DH has a theory that the last group (10?) will be nearly as quick, mostly because it will be a socially-distanced jab conga-line.

*Not for me personally: I just want vulnerable friends & family safe.

J&j is also one jab instead of Two. Similar efficacy to the az one. So my hope (as a 36yo health woman) is that those that are at the bottom waiting for the vax are given this one which would mean we’d not need to wait for the 12w. (I also breastfeed so hope it’s approved for bf mums ) that would make things much easier as many of us would just need one and have similar immunity

Does anyone know the target date for when groups 1-4 will have been offered their second dose? I am guessing it's by the end of May, if we keep up the current progress. :-D*

I’m not sure, but anecdotally, my parents are in group 5, and had their first dose 1.5 weeks ago plus an appointment booked for the second dose in early April.

@CoffeeandCroissant sorry yes, just had a Google and I think you’re right - 32 million is the correct figure!

So the big centralised vaccine centres are going to do the groups that are done by age, while the gps do group 6? Because group 5 is small, what happens if they are finished before group 6 do we think?

My sil recently started work for the command centre of the fire service and finished his training last Friday. Tonight was his first shift and before he had done any work the centre were rung by the local hospital to say they had 4 spare doses if anyone could get there in 20 minutes. He was one of only two of them who hadn’t been vaccinated so they were sent off to the hospital. Two doses not wasted.

When he will get his second dose he doesn’t know but he is delighted to have received his first.

Just finished another shift at a vaccine hubs. We got through 1500 patients today alone