Why can't we open up, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated ?

[loverof]

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

I thought we were going to start opening up after the first 4 groups were vaccinated. Which is supposed to be this month...

I agree, surely when over 70s and CEV are done that will take strain off thr NHS and we can start to unlock

I read that they are not sure how long the vaccine immunity lasts. They can’t know for sometime. But all vaccines, immunity declines rapidly over months and then gradually over years. The key is to know at what point a booster jab could be needed. It is unlikely the Covid jab will provide lifelong immunity as it mutates is rapidly. We may end up with Covid being added to the annual flu shot for all we know.

So they are going to be cautious about opening back up. They will want the data from the volunteers in the trials to see just how good the vaccine is after 6mos, a year and so on.

@loverof

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

Well that's what should be happening If the government will give us our rights and freedoms back is another matter

@PlanDeRaccordement

I read that they are not sure how long the vaccine immunity lasts. They can’t know for sometime. But all vaccines, immunity declines rapidly over months and then gradually over years. The key is to know at what point a booster jab could be needed. It is unlikely the Covid jab will provide lifelong immunity as it mutates is rapidly. We may end up with Covid being added to the annual flu shot for all we know.

So they are going to be cautious about opening back up. They will want the data from the volunteers in the trials to see just how good the vaccine is after 6mos, a year and so on.

Well we can't wait for that to happen we need to get on with it now

I think we all want this to happen as soon as possible. I do think though a "slower", staggered reopening is going to be vital to prevent further lockdowns being needed. The summer fully demonstrated that. Hospitals will take some time to see easing of pressures as numbers of those needing treatment are still high too.
I'm hanging onto the fact that the vaccine rollout hopefully provides us with a little light at the end of the tunnel!

I’m pretty sure we will be. Why do you think we won’t?

Ah OK not sure how I got that impression. I think the other day there was something about social distancing continuing regardless and there's been a lot of ' you can't act differently once vaccinated as it doesn't stop transmission '. I guess that applies to people getting vaccinated now, whilst many vulnerable people still haven't been protected. I don't know I just feel like there's a lot of bad news. Maybe it's just my impression/ head space.

So technically things should improve from Mid Feb, once the top 4 groups have been vaccinated.

We can, and we will.

At the current rate of progress, all the vulnerable should have had their first dose by the end of March. This gives a high level of protection, as the data published for the AZ vaccine today shows. Restrictions can then be released progressively and we can start the process of getting back to a normal life.

The government are being very cautious at the moment about providing a timescale for getting out of lockdown because they want to maintain compliance while millions of vulnerable people have had their vaccine yet.

Opening up again won't be dependant on vaccines of the group's, it will primarily on hospital capacity. As hospitals get less busy they will open the country up slowly. Vaccines will help with this though.

Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.

Ah positive thread! I guess for me travel abroad being permitted is key, as I miss my mum dearly. If that's still completely off the table, it will break me. EU travel, not international. Fingers crossed.

The key is not how many people are vaccinated, but the impact of that on hospitalisations and deaths. Vaccines will improve those umbers, but so does lockdown. It's not possible to see how much of an effect is coming from each until we start to release lockdown.

We will open up, but gradually, not all in one go. We need to see the impact of one change before progressing to the next.

For example: open schools and non-essential retail from 8th March (GUESS, not prediction). Wait two weeks. If numbers still declining, open some hospitality. Wait two weeks, see what's happening. Then the next step.

But if we make a change and numbers stop declining, or even start to rise, we would have to pause the unlocking and wait for the vaccine programme to go further.

Oh SAGE I think this week came out and said social distancing to remain for the rest of the year. Is that the kind of thing you’re thinking of OP? Sage are only looking at covid. The government have an economy and education to balance. I’m confident Boris won’t keep restrictions unless they’re absolutely necessary.

@loverof

Ah positive thread! I guess for me travel abroad being permitted is key, as I miss my mum dearly. If that's still completely off the table, it will break me. EU travel, not international. Fingers crossed.

Travel abroad is a different matter.

That will depend on how quickly other countries roll out the vaccines. At the moment, the Europeans are miles behind the U.K and the gap is increasing every day. If we are going to be able to go on holiday this summer, they need to start getting their act together.

Because the latest strains seem to affect younger people more than the original one

@Zogstart yeah I think that also gave me that impression!

@AgeLikeWine I wish people would stop calling it a holiday when you visit your family abroad. Is it a holiday if someone visits their mum in Wales once it's allowed ? Seeing very close family in this way is not a holiday. It's a visit. In fact I visited my mum every 4-6 weeks ever since I've lived here ( 25 years ) and she would come here too very often. Literally living between two countries for most of my life. It's not a holiday. Anyway ! I get the point. Rant over.

Came on thread ready to argue, thought you meant first 4 groups.
First 9 groups though, absolutely. The intention was always to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed. When all 9 groups are vaccinated, that ought to be achieved.

Great news today, AZ prevents transmission by up to 67% so would seem likely other vaccines will do the same, if not better. Sputnik sounds extremely promising.
So far, vaccines suppress all variants. No, it to the same extent and they don’t eradicate but they prevent serious illness and hospital admissions, which was always the stated goal. I’ll happily settle for that.
So, tend to agree with you.
We have to get used to living with Covid. Sadly, the very frail will continue to succumb, as they do to pneumonia and seasonal ‘flu but the general population will be largely protected from serious illness going forward, once those 9 groups have received both doses.
That’s an incredible achievement.

I think @PuzzledObserver has the right idea. I’m sure the govt are kicking themselves about Eat Out To Help Out and won’t want to repeat that mistake.

I’m resigned to holidays in the U.K. for 2021.

[quote loverof]@AgeLikeWine I wish people would stop calling it a holiday when you visit your family abroad. Is it a holiday if someone visits their mum in Wales once it's allowed ? Seeing very close family in this way is not a holiday. It's a visit. In fact I visited my mum every 4-6 weeks ever since I've lived here ( 25 years ) and she would come here too very often. Literally living between two countries for most of my life. It's not a holiday. Anyway ! I get the point. Rant over. [/quote]
Point taken.

You’re quite right, of course.

Social distancing will remain a long time though - like even in summer when we could to out to pubs and stuff - social distancing and masks were still a thing - it will remain like that a long time I’d imagine

Mumblechum0

I think @PuzzledObserver has the right idea. I’m sure the govt are kicking themselves about Eat Out To Help Out and won’t want to repeat that mistake.”

Yes, that was sheer bloody madness, which an awful lot of people said at the time. Heard stats claiming 17% increase in infection uplift as direct result (ONS, I think, happy to be corrected).

@AgeLikeWine I'm sorry for my tone. Not directed at you. It's just a painful topic and no one seems to understand but that's OK. Everyone has their own burden to carry and you can't understand everyone else's all the time.