Why can't we open up, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated ?

[loverof]

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

Immunity

The most vulnerable getting their first jabs, and allowing 2-3 weeks for the body to produce the expected level of immunity from one shot, pretty much coincides with the first possible date for first return to on-site for schools.

We saw yesterday the sorts of data that are being examined, to see if the first shot immunisation programme does indeed bring the expected level of protection and the drop in severe cases. Plus it gives time for hospitals to become less full (ICUs are still essentially full - someone leaves and there is always someone who needs admitting)

If those figures move as hoped, then the move back to onsite schooling (perhaps in phases?) can go ahead.

If not, then my guess is that they will be looking to about May for next attempt, as that is roughly when the second shot of first 4 priorities will have kicked in. But if it has come good, then that's the point when we might have some major relaxations.

(Do remember however that one point from yesterday's press conference is that the rate of first shots will dip when second shots fall due)

No one says we are not opening up. They say they will vaccinate the top groups first, wait for a couple weeks and then look at hospital admissions. We can't open all up if the hospitals are not coping. It is not about a fixed date, as the virus don't care to look at the calendar. As mentioned by others before, it is not the number of cases , it is the number of hospital admissions that is the problem. If we have infinite medical resources then we don't need lockdowns and everyone will be treated. At the moment there are too many covid patients, so other treatmments are cancelled, either because lack of staff or infection control.