Why can't we open up, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated ?

[loverof]

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

Because we can't have the virus mutating left, right and centre. We've had a taste already of what mutations may do and it would be disastrous to have it mutating to a form that current vaccines can't deal with. We need to get to the point that the amount of virus circulating in the population is small enough to be controlled, to some extent anyway.

For all those saying "top 4 groups" it is the top 9 groups who are all vulnerable, either due to age or to conditions such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, COPD, kidney disease etc etc.

We definitely have to have a lot of care until all of those people are vaccinated.

We lock down for the NHS. Large parts of the NHS have not locked out for the public. Non critical MH services for example. At my local trust all the office staff are working from home despite IT being so backward it doesn't work. It staggers me that ADHD/ASD follow ups are being offeredbon the basis of expect a call between 9am and 7pm because ALL the staff are wfh for as long as social distancing is in place. Extraordinary that NHS staff can't be risk assessed and socially distanced when supermarket staff, librarians, teachers, pharmacists, etc., can.

It is utterly despicable and I strongly object to locking down so too many NHS staff can do the equivalent of bugger all at the expense of the patient.

@loverof

So technically things should improve from Mid Feb, once the top 4 groups have been vaccinated.

Well not quite because there are still loads of people in hospital and unless the under 50s are also vaccinated totally unlocking will still mean the virus is circulating and straining the NHS. So we can't unlock next week once the most vulnerable have been done.

@PlanDeRaccordement

I read that they are not sure how long the vaccine immunity lasts. They can’t know for sometime. But all vaccines, immunity declines rapidly over months and then gradually over years. The key is to know at what point a booster jab could be needed. It is unlikely the Covid jab will provide lifelong immunity as it mutates is rapidly. We may end up with Covid being added to the annual flu shot for all we know.

So they are going to be cautious about opening back up. They will want the data from the volunteers in the trials to see just how good the vaccine is after 6mos, a year and so on.

Well they know it provides short term immunity and that takes us out of winter and into the warmer weather again when the nhs is usually not under as much pressure.

No more stalling. We can’t just keep dragging this on and on until next winter!

@Lemons1571

Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.

No, because the younger age groups are at MUCH lower risk of ending up in hospital so they shouldn’t be overwhelmed - even if cases do increase.

@bumbleymummy
Well they know it provides short term immunity and that takes us out of winter and into the warmer weather again when the nhs is usually not under as much pressure.

I don’t disagree. I think the worry is that by the time they are vaccinating the final groups this late spring/summer, they may have evidence that the immunity is waning on the most vulnerable vaccinated jabbed in Dec/Jan. You see what I mean? Six months would only be June. So we may see restrictions lifting gradually and then most vulnerable doing a bit of shielding again in summer while they wait for a booster jab. I do think social distancing and higher hygiene standards are here to stay for another year though.

@FuzzyPuffling

For all those saying "top 4 groups" it is the top 9 groups who are all vulnerable, either due to age or to conditions such as cancer, heart disease, diabetes, COPD, kidney disease etc etc.

We definitely have to have a lot of care until all of those people are vaccinated.

The top 4 groups account for around 90% of fatalities iirc.

I agree, surely when over 70s and CEV are done that will take strain off thr NHS and we can start to unlock

^ this month we have had the highest numbers of people under 50 admitted since it all started so I think we'd still be in trouble if it ripped through the younger population in terms of non ICU but stil critical care capacity.

@Lemons1571 ''Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.''

Which is of course complete nonsense as people in these age groups are not going to require hospital treatment en masse, but hey! let's not get in the way of a good doom and gloom scenario.

The majority of people in hospital are still in the 65+ groups and the average age of someone dying with Covid is 80+

OP, huge sympathy about not seeing family here. All mine are in Australia, and I’ve not seen my parents since Christmas 2019 and the rest the previous August. I have a nephew I won’t meet until he’s well over 2.

I’ve found the pandemic to be a total headfuck as an immigrant. You always tell yourself that if anything happens, it’s just a plane ride away. There in a day or so. That you can see them pretty regularly, in a planned way, and spend really good quality time when you do.

And then suddenly none of those things were true any more, and some of our countries wouldn’t let won’t let many of their own citizens in. And it’s really tough.

The people dying are mostly in their eighties but the bulk of people in intensive care are in the 50-70 band so we can’t loosen up before they’ve been vaccinated because if we do then the health system would collapse.

I’m a white middle class woman in perfect health with a BMI of 25.5, working from home. It was my fiftieth birthday last week. I should be the absolute last person in Band 9. Once I’ve been vaccinated and we’ve waited two additional weeks for the vaccine to take effect then we can start to open up.

^ this month we have had the highest numbers of people under 50 admitted since it all started so I think we'd still be in trouble if it ripped through the younger population in terms of non ICU but stil critical care capacity.

This month we have had the highest number of people admitted and in hospital since the pandemic began. Across all age groups. Is it statistically significantly more in the under 50s that can’t be accounted for by the fact that - sadly - a higher proportion of those over 75 have already succumbed?

I think the aim is starting to unlock once 4 groups are vaccinated + 3 weeks for immune response to kick in hence 8th March, schools are first to open. Then it will depends on ability those who vaccinated to transmit and on possible variants.
I think travel abroad will be allowed only with negative test results before/after and possible isolation. My impression is that EU is starting slowly but will have more vaccines available after Easter.

No I don't mean relative percentages.

That’s an exaggeration of course - once you’ve vaccinated most of the over sixties and waited two weeks then you could probably start opening up stage by stage. But Band 9 plus two weeks should mark a real step change.

@Lemons1571

Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.

But why would that happen if it didn’t happen without the vaccine? Some will get it and need hospitalised but given those age groups mainly get it mildly how would that happen? Especially if, as seems likely, the vaccine helps stop transmission

@StrangerHereMyself

The people dying are mostly in their eighties but the bulk of people in intensive care are in the 50-70 band so we can’t loosen up before they’ve been vaccinated because if we do then the health system would collapse.

I’m a white middle class woman in perfect health with a BMI of 25.5, working from home. It was my fiftieth birthday last week. I should be the absolute last person in Band 9. Once I’ve been vaccinated and we’ve waited two additional weeks for the vaccine to take effect then we can start to open up.

I thought the increased risk actually starts at 45 - I think if they follow the science and statistics, they are going to need to add group 10 for ages 45-50 or else they will be sacrificing the health of millions.

The age group 45-64 actually accounts for nearly as many patients in intensive care as 65-74 according to this graph from a couple of weeks ago.

Correction: the age group 45-64 is almost as many as 75-84 (not 64-74)

@JassyRadlett you have my sincerest sympathies. Australia really is in another league to Europe. I've seen my mum since this has all started, so I've been extremely lucky. I feel so terrible for you and all others separated from their loved ones in such a brutal way. I hope you can go or they can come to you safely as soon as possible. I would leave and never come back if I was from Australia. Sounds nicer there

@StepOutOfToxicity Sorry to be a bit dim, but could it be beaus more people in that age bracket are catching it now ?

@DenisetheMenace

Came on thread ready to argue, thought you meant first 4 groups. First 9 groups though, absolutely. The intention was always to prevent the NHS from being overwhelmed. When all 9 groups are vaccinated, that ought to be achieved.

Great news today, AZ prevents transmission by up to 67% so would seem likely other vaccines will do the same, if not better. Sputnik sounds extremely promising.
So far, vaccines suppress all variants. No, it to the same extent and they don’t eradicate but they prevent serious illness and hospital admissions, which was always the stated goal. I’ll happily settle for that.
So, tend to agree with you.
We have to get used to living with Covid. Sadly, the very frail will continue to succumb, as they do to pneumonia and seasonal ‘flu but the general population will be largely protected from serious illness going forward, once those 9 groups have received both doses.
That’s an incredible achievement.

You’ve basically said everything I was going too!

@Heyahun

Social distancing will remain a long time though - like even in summer when we could to out to pubs and stuff - social distancing and masks were still a thing - it will remain like that a long time I’d imagine

How long are you envisaging when you say a long time? I can live with masks, but while there is still social distancing I might as well still be in lockdown, as it means I can't easily see my friends and can't do any of the activities I enjoy with them, even just going out for dinner, because it isn't possible to distance.

OP I'm with you on the travel abroard thing. DH accepted a job abroad last winter and went ahead to get set up - due to border closures and restrictions we haven't seen him since. I don't want to go on holiday, i want my daughter to see her dad without facetime ffs. Its fucking inhumane to just stop all travel. Tests, quarantine, whatever, but the 'close the borders full stop' brigade don't have a clue what that actually means for people's lives.

@JassyRadlett A colleague who emigrated to Australia a couple of years ago has just missed their parents funeral here, must be very tough psychologically.

Even within the UK I have a nephew I have met once outside but not been able to hold and have seen my Mum (who is on her own) twice in the last year its a really awful situation.