Why can't we open up, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated ?

[loverof]

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

Remember there's quite a time lag in all this. BIL is CEV and has his jab this week, it is then up to 12 weeks for number 2 and another 2-3 for full immunity to develop. That takes us to May bay my reckoning and I think he is group 4 so we have a way to go yet.
I'm hopeful the warmer weather will help though

@loverof

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

Because sadly, every single clause to getting our lives back, is met by another one. It’s never ending. Remember, “Just 3 weeks to flatten the curve....”.

@QueenOfTheDoubleWide

Remember there's quite a time lag in all this. BIL is CEV and has his jab this week, it is then up to 12 weeks for number 2 and another 2-3 for full immunity to develop. That takes us to May bay my reckoning and I think he is group 4 so we have a way to go yet. I'm hopeful the warmer weather will help though

Did he have the AZ vaccine? Iirc there’s not that much difference in protection levels between one and two doses - the two doses just provide longer protection.

[quote ElectraBlue]@Lemons1571 ''Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.''

Which is of course complete nonsense as people in these age groups are not going to require hospital treatment en masse, but hey! let's not get in the way of a good doom and gloom scenario.

The majority of people in hospital are still in the 65+ groups and the average age of someone dying with Covid is 80+[/quote]
A small % of under 50’s need hospitalisation. However, if this small % all need a hospital bed in the same month, that translates to a lot of people.

Unfortunately opinion seems to have gone from "prevent the NHS getting overwhelmed" to "prevent anyone getting sick with covid", s though death has never existed before. The government shouldn't be trying for a zero covid strategy or even to avoid people under 40 catching it, as they so infrequently get ill. If the NHS is not at risk, then lockdown should be loosened.

The scientists in the field, ie the ones who know what they are talking about as opposed to random MN members, say social distancing and masks could be here for some time yet. Maybe until next year, maybe longer.

Once we have a hold on it it would be daft to give it chance to run rampant again.

@bumbleymummy the modelling is in the link in my PP

@ChocOrange1

Unfortunately opinion seems to have gone from "prevent the NHS getting overwhelmed" to "prevent anyone getting sick with covid", s though death has never existed before. The government shouldn't be trying for a zero covid strategy or even to avoid people under 40 catching it, as they so infrequently get ill. If the NHS is not at risk, then lockdown should be loosened.

Yep.

This needs to happen.

@Ricepops Thanks.

“ Figure 1(b) shows the reproduc- 95 tion number R, on release of all non-pharmaceutical interventions, as the vaccine programme 96 progresses (but ignoring any additional increase in immunity from infection)”

So they didn’t take into account immunity from infection from January.

We also now know that the vaccine does offer some protection against transmission.

So not as doom and gloom as the model predicted 😊

“unobjective”

Not an accusation we can generally throw at science professionals 🤣
They live and die by data.

A lot of scientists use data for their own ends.

Or their data is flawed, like the Ferguson modelling

I think we will open a lot once 1-9 have been vaccinated. We will probably open schools 3 weeks after 1-4 have been vaccinated in fact.

My fear is that if large groups are not vaccinated (everyone under under 65) the virus will continue to spread and mutations will occur that are either vaccine resistant, or that become more deadly.

So for a strategy to actually work, we should aim for a massive reduction of Covid in the under 65 years old, which would mean complete lockdown, social distancing, school closed. Working from home. No travel. Face masks everywhere. A real and true 'sprint' at the end of the race . And a very, very efficient track and trace system for at least another 2-3 months after groups 1-6 have been vaccinated.

If kids don't get vaccinated, then chances are the virus will continue to mutate.

Anyway, the government would never go for this which means that we will have the virus aggressively passing around population for months and months and months.

Why do so many people jump to the ‘more dangerous mutations’ idea. It could just as easily mutate to be milder!

To prevent nhs overload you are probably looking at getting all the vulnerable, not the top 4 groups , vaccinated . That may not be enough however to fully protect the nhs. Because vaccine isn't perfect and not everyone will have it

The worry about long covid and virus mutation , both home grown and imported , are both very real , we see tine and time again that hoping for the best makes things worse . Act for the worst gets you back to normal quicker

Looking at todays news that the OXford vaccine does reduce transmission significantly, We actually should be able to open up once the vaccine priority groups have been completed, and probably will. Lockdown is getting our cases low again, and the vaccine effect will start kicking in soon too. With our vaccine rollout going as well as it has been we should have vaccinated all priority groups by Easter, maybe even before.

@midgedude

But long COVID, while it may be unpleasant for those who get it, will not overwhelm the NHS.

That is the purpose of lockdown- it's not to stop anyone getting ill ever.

Some nhs departments are worried that long covid will be a huge problem

Physio kidney and possibly diabetes

It is far far better all round to suppress the virus. Anything else is taking stupid risks

Lockdown gets us in position where we can control it, vaccines support that , but testing and tracing and occasional local restrictions will be needed for a while yet

Why does everything have to be so all of nothing?

With a bit of care you get 90% of stuff back soon and more as time goes by

you try for 100% too soon and you end up back where we are now sooner rather than later
That's just pandemics for you

Look at New Zealand China , places which are normal and don't give excuses , it's the strategy of balance that had led to us having yet another severe long lockdown

@JassyRadlett I'm in the same boat and totally agree with you.

@bumbleymummy Did he have the AZ vaccine? Iirc there’s not that much difference in protection levels between one and two doses - the two doses just provide longer protection.
When you get the vaccine it is reinforced to you that you must continue to follow guidelines strictly until after the second dose or until you are informed otherwise

Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.
He is fixated and unobjective

And you’re not @Beaniecats? You seem pretty fixated on what you’re suggesting. The difference is that Whitty’s credentials are a matter of public record, whereas you’re just another randomer on the internet.

@bumbleymummy the charts show the modelling under different scenarios, when the virus is 0, 30%, 60% effective at blocking transmission. Even at the highest efficiency of 85% transmission blocking, we would still need to lock down until May to avoid a third wave.

I'm not saying that the government should lock down until May, just saying that if we don't, it is quite likely we will have a third wave and need another lockdown.

Yes, I read it. They didn’t factor in immunity from infection past January - only vaccine induced immunity.

@MrsFezziwig

Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.
He is fixated and unobjective

And you’re not @Beaniecats? You seem pretty fixated on what you’re suggesting. The difference is that Whitty’s credentials are a matter of public record, whereas you’re just another randomer on the internet.

Its interest to read tonight that Government ministers inc the Chancellor are becoming concerned by the advice given from scientists and that they are advocating for longer lockdown, and that the methodology of protect the nhs is being eradicated in favour of overzealous obsessiveness with case numbers It seems the country is waking up

Case numbers aren’t a problem as long as long as they’re not increasing hospital numbers. If a lot more people are getting it mildly while the more vulnerable are being vaccinated then we just end up with higher levels of inmunity