Why can't we open up, once the most vulnerable are vaccinated ?

[loverof]

Genuinely not trying to start a fight. I'm just wondering. If all the top 9 groups have had their second dose, surely we can open up ?

Correction: the age group 45-64 is almost as many as 75-84 (not 64-74)

45-64 is a wide age band in Covid terms. I’d want to see a more granular breakdown of that age range before coming to any conclusions.

@Heyahun

I agree. Unfortunately I think things like big concerts etc are years off.

I thought the plan is to open up slowly once first four groups have had at least their first jab +3 weeks to let it take effect, in the meantime continue vaccinating, open rest up. Just with caution so not to unravel the falling infection rates and admissions that lockdown is finally achieving.

Can't wait.

The wonder of modern medicine.

Is it a holiday if someone visits their mum in Wales once it's allowed

Some people do genuinely go on holiday to Wales.

Ah positive thread! I guess for me travel abroad being permitted is key

South Africa is supposed to be lovely.

Honestly it will be dependant on a real and consistent drop in death rates. It won't be at least a moth before we get real data in.

Even now, the current data only shows the effect of lockdown plus restrictions.

I reckon easing slowly in March. A reasonable summer still with milder restrictions. The real test of the vaccine will come in September/October.

International travel will depend on variants, vaccines and vaccine resilience. And also the vaccination and infection levels in other countries

We can and we should.

The results released today by AstraZeneca were quite promising on suppressing the virus so it's got more promising. Don't expect any changes before 8th March (3 weeks after the top 4 groups are due to complete) but if the overall rates in hospitals are far lower I suspect they at least open schools, perhaps shops soon after

@StepOutOfToxicity

Hopefully 45-49 next . Really would like to be vaccinated ASAP so I can see my parents. Dp is older so should get his in March

I think the aim is starting to unlock once 4 groups are vaccinated + 3 weeks for immune response to kick in

Who has said this?

[quote mootymoo]@StepOutOfToxicity

Hopefully 45-49 next . Really would like to be vaccinated ASAP so I can see my parents. Dp is older so should get his in March[/quote]
Will they not be vaccinated soon? Surely you can see them then?

It was said several times in press briefings discussing timescales, when they were discussing the mid February goal

To be honest Chris Whitty has already said that. He said the vaccines will start to show a reduction in hospitalisations, once that happens, he said it's down to personal responsibility from then on. Next winter will obviously be another test but hopefully we won't need any kind of action that is happening now (hopefully just masks).

@Lemons1571

Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.

He is fixated and unobjective

Opening up should start immediately after the first 4 groups are immune. The Oxford vaccine seemingly removes 100% of the risk of hospitalisation (I suspect Pfizer will be similar)- so no need to hand around.

The aim of lockdown has been to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed.

We are now however seeing some people coming out of the woodwork screaming about 'long covid' and how we all need to stay in lockdown forever. This needs to be resisted- we cannot shut down society simply to prevent people getting ill when there is no threat of the NHS being overwhelmed.

Would we have to wait for all the most vulnerable groups to have their second jab first? Or is the plan now to give everyone 1 jab and stop the spread that way? I haven’t watched the briefings this year so I am dependent on what the press report (which tends to be sensationalist and contradictory!)

The vaccine is 90% effective and they expect around 85% uptake. This means that after the top priority groups have been vaccinated, 25% of them still won't be protected. In addition, the rest of the population won't be protected either, and although under 70s are less likely to be hospitalised, if it rips through the population this could still fill up hospitals. The final reason is that we don't want it to mutate again.

This helped me understand it www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/30/exclusive-social-distancing-may-have-remain-place-year/

@Ricepops

We cannot and will not continue to shut down society to protect people who refuse to have the vaccine to protect themselves.

So ricepops what are you suggesting?

@PuzzledObserver

The key is not how many people are vaccinated, but the impact of that on hospitalisations and deaths. Vaccines will improve those umbers, but so does lockdown. It's not possible to see how much of an effect is coming from each until we start to release lockdown.

We will open up, but gradually, not all in one go. We need to see the impact of one change before progressing to the next.

For example: open schools and non-essential retail from 8th March (GUESS, not prediction). Wait two weeks. If numbers still declining, open some hospitality. Wait two weeks, see what's happening. Then the next step.

But if we make a change and numbers stop declining, or even start to rise, we would have to pause the unlocking and wait for the vaccine programme to go further.

It wouldn't surprise me. Let's see how many of these people get ill like some kind of canary down the mine. As a TA I feel like cannon fodder.

Lemons1571
Because covid would rip through those in their 30’s and 40’s so fast that ITU would still be overwhelmed. Too many people catching it at once and needing hospital treatment all in the same fortnight.

According to Whitty.

He is fixated and unobjective

Is he though? Really? Remember when he predicted that we would have 20-40k+ cases daily and higher deaths rates? This was a few months ago. No one believed him. Cases didn’t immediately rise much straight after his predictions and everyone (especially the DM) was banging on about how much he looks the whole gloom and doom and has totally exaggerated the figures? Well he was proven right a couple of months on. His predictions that time were spot on. I really do think he knows his stuff and the vast majority of predictions he makes aren’t far off at all.

@bumbleymummy
I'm not suggesting anything, just saying how they have come to their conclusions. I think the government needs to communicate the modelling, but they probably don't want to depress people further. A lot of people seem to be under the impression that once the top priority groups have got their vaccinations, then we can open up and hospitals won't be overwhelmed, but the modelling suggests that hospitals will still be overwhelmed unless the timing and speed of lifting restrictions is controlled.

Whitty is literally ALWAYS right

Only a twat badger wouldn't listen to him

Also the article shows the modelling based on different scenarios where the vaccine has varying efficacy against transmission. It's definitely worth a read.

Well I won’t be going out until I’ve personally been vaccinated. They can officially open up if they want - I’ll ignore it until I’m personally protected. I imagine many people will do likewise.

[quote Ricepops]@bumbleymummy
I'm not suggesting anything, just saying how they have come to their conclusions. I think the government needs to communicate the modelling, but they probably don't want to depress people further. A lot of people seem to be under the impression that once the top priority groups have got their vaccinations, then we can open up and hospitals won't be overwhelmed, but the modelling suggests that hospitals will still be overwhelmed unless the timing and speed of lifting restrictions is controlled.[/quote]
What modelling? Do you have a link? Because anything I’ve read shows that the risk of hospitalisation for the younger age groups is considerably lower so even with increasing case numbers, hospitals would not be overwhelmed.

@Glenchase I’m absolutely fine with low risk people deciding they want to stay at home until they’re vaccinated. As long as they don’t expect tax payers to keep them on furlough.