Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@amicissima - It's all in the government covid figures, look at the figures by date of death: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths.

@InMySpareTime Anecdotally, but def true, is that patients are moved between hospitals which will probably affect where things recorded. My DP was in hospital 1, moved to hospital 2 for specialist input in a whole different area.Died after being in there 2 weeks later - hospital 2 have told us they caught covid in hospital 2......so is their death classed as in area 1, or area 2?

Thanks, @MRex. I hadn't been looking into the Deaths data closely enough. I'm happier on the vaccination numbers part!

It looks as if deaths peaked on 19 Jan, although there may still be some to add in here and there. And cases peaked on 28 December, with another high on 4 Jan. Interesting.

[quote Purpleheadgirl]@InMySpareTime Anecdotally, but def true, is that patients are moved between hospitals which will probably affect where things recorded. My DP was in hospital 1, moved to hospital 2 for specialist input in a whole different area.Died after being in there 2 weeks later - hospital 2 have told us they caught covid in hospital 2......so is their death classed as in area 1, or area 2?[/quote]
Sorry to hear that
I don't think deaths are recorded where they take place - they're recorded at the home address. So the local authority where you DP was living before being admitted to either hospital. The only exceptions to that are institutions that are people's main homes - eg care homes and some long stay mental health hospitals.

I was going to post to say that @Firefliess but then realised that this discussion started because of a table of figures from GM of deaths per hospital.

Here's a question for you all: 11m vaccinations done so far. Currently vaccinating at a rate of 3m first doses a week. Total of 30m people in groups 1-9 (ie over 50s and vulnerable adults) So how many weeks will it take to vaccinate them all? I make it 6.3 weeks (19m left to do divided by 3m per week), so mid March - and that's assuming 100% uptake, so in practice sooner. So why is the government saying it will take til May?

Do they know about some serious supply shortages about to slow things right down? (But if they was the case, why not say so?) Are they playing to the international stage? ("please don't cancel all our orders AZ and give them to the EU - we're not really so far ahead, honest!") Managing expectations? (But two whole months extra???) Trying to quieten down the Tory MPs who are pushing for early release from lockdown? Some other explanation?

It's not to do with vaccines being required for second doses as that won't really be an issue until late March/April.

@JanFebAnyMonth

I was going to post to say that *@Firefliess* but then realised that this discussion started because of a table of figures from GM of deaths per hospital.

The Manchester data is numbers in hospital isn't it? Not deaths

They probably are referring to second doses by May

Also politics if they declare the vulnerable groups done before then. Giving away the vaccine to EU vulnerable citizens because a pressure. By May the EU have more vaccine available.

*becomes not because

Oh apologies @Firefliess you're right. I looked back and can see it was @Purpleheadgirl who introduced the question about place of death, not sure if that was quite their intention though.

Yes the govt will be thinking in terms of the full inoculation (is that the right phrase?) by May.

That's an interesting theory that maybe they meant second doses. That ought to be just about doable if they get first doses done by mid March (people I know have been booked for their second dose 10-11 weeks after the first). The news article I read it in isn't explicit, but does mention the over 70s being offended a vaccine by mid February, which we know is definitely just talking about first doses BBC News - Covid: All over-50s in UK to be offered vaccine by May
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55953848

Maybe they do mean second doses, but are being deliberately vague?

Won’t they have to use most of their 3m capacity a week in April to do the 2nd doses for people who had 1st dose in January?

@ceeveebee

Won’t they have to use most of their 3m capacity a week in April to do the 2nd doses for people who had 1st dose in January?

Yes they will (unless supply goes on increasing) But my point is that at current rate they'll have done the over 50s by mid March before they have to start doing them all over again.

@firefliess @JanFebAnyMonth
Yes was a more a case of agreeing to your earlier point about people moving in and out of hospitals so their figures may not reflect the local area. If they are clearly still passing on cases within hospitals, those that are large or specialised for example are going to be particularly prone to be different.

I think the proper math would be based on numbers from here:
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England
and on a weekly basis

those who got vaccinated first on w dec 13 -55k- will have to get their 2nd vacc on w/c feb 28
Meaning that week on week from then the 3m weekly will have to be split between new and 2nd.
feb 28: not a real problem, 55k
march 7: 518k, leaving 2.4

the problem will start to arise end of march when we get to 1m+/week of 1st vacc 12 weeks later.

And in April they will have to halt almost all 1st doses to be able to supply the 2nd doses.

In supply chain management there are a couple of options that can be used (and from project man. experience too, and just from the top of my head. It's been a while since I've done this kind of planning)

1. artificially slow the rate of 1st dose to a consistently manageable level.
2. halt 1st dose when 2nd dose need arises
3. enhance capacity
4. spread out the 2nd dose to between 9-12 weeks.

1. is the best option, obviously

All others have massive issues.

1. best option, because it provides a very steady pace that can be kept up indefinitely. Con: not really pr friendly/not good propaganda; will drive deaths down a bit slower

1. this is the most problematic overall, because that means that you do a group, then start again with them, meaning that group 2 will have to wait 2x months to get even their first jabs. And the potential risk of having to redo* some/all of group1 increases the risks of group 2 2nd dose and group 3 will maybe have to wait almost forever.

*eg: vacc only good for 6-7 months

1. a planners nightmare :) but doable with a solid algorithm. Given this govs track record so far I would not like to bet my life on this. ...

If I had to do an assessment from looking in through the window as a total outsider I'd say that the UK went for option 2 and has it's fingers crossed that capacity can be grown.
Given how we don't know if vacc supply and vaccinator capacity are at what levels, there is no way to know what growing capacity will result in.
A) great, we have enough docs/nurses and places and supply chains are set up to handle x times more throughput
B) extra vaccs will be sitting in warehouses because the throughput at either the actual transport chain or at the centers will be limited and are now at full capacity.
C) something extraordinary happens and the pile of cards fall down - eg more than 10-30% of vaccinating staff get ill, go on strike, whatever.

It's an interesting thought problem and I'm sure that in the min. of defense there are a lot of algorithms for these sort of things, just with munition and such. Hope they are making good use of them to do models.

If they get the vaxs then increasing supply to pharmacies is the answer.
I think a lot of places could do more vaxs it's the vax itself. So if more come online which have been approved.

The i newspaper says the UK is on track for every adult to get a coronavirus jab by the end of June. Pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has told ministers it can deliver 100 million doses on schedule, with enough to give a first dose to all adults and a second jab to 15 million people in vulnerable groups, the paper reports, although it says supply disruption is still possible.

Quick excel play around.
If we have the capacity of 5m vaccines per week from April, then we can have all eligible 54m ppl done by end of June with round 1, and get round 2 into everyone by mid- august.

and here comes the but....
so far, based on data my bet is that the 2.5m per week is the upper limit of vaccines that we can buy/manufacture/distribute. If I input this as a weekly limit the dates are:
54m 1st round: end of aug
everyone with both rounds: mid-november

This is exactly the type of plan and strategy that I'd like to see. Nothing fancy and too detailed. Set out the parameters, do the calculation and tell ppl the caveats.

@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum
what does "on schedule" mean in term of dates?

just out of curiosity
if we had the limit of 2.5m/week and we did the poper 4 week (let's assume only P. and not mixing 4 and 12 week protocols because I'm too tired for that)

first dose for 54m: end of october
2nd dose for 54m: end of november

[quote TheSunIsStillShining]@Truelymadlydeeplysomeonesmum
what does "on schedule" mean in term of dates?[/quote]
Judging by what the article says the whole 100 million doses will be delivered by end of June.

I think from memory Pfizer were supposed to complete in April but I could be wrong. Plus the haven't said how well they are doing. Only AZ have been quoted.

so actually no huge diff in the overall dates. The devil is in the details. At end of march with 12wk dosing we'll have 21m ppl vaccinated to 60-70% efficiency, whereas with proper dosing it would be only 12,5m, but with 90-95% efficiency.

at the beginning of may this would be 29m and 22m.

imho going at an expedited rate the pitfalls and risks are too high. And the biggest thing it achieves is good pr and taking pressure of the NHS*. It may pay off or it might backfire. History books will pass judgement and time will produce enough data to see.

*If we had a properly funded and organized NHS this would not have to be the almost above everything else, even lives, priority.

again and again I don't understand this lack of transparency.
What will happen? other nations will attack us for our vacc supplies? Even me - a dystopia loving cynical b*..- can't see that happening. :)

one last thing to this though experiment.
The reason I believe that giving more ppl less protection is a mistake is that imo (taking over virologist's views) we are opening a huge door to mutations to happen here.
I think if it was communicated that xyz is the exit strategy; this and that will happen and you will have to bear lockdown/school closure/etc until appr. x time people would be more willing to comply.
This way the economy could also be planned for, furloughs and "band aids" could be given for a specified time. And again: better to actually calculate in advance and plan than go in guns ablaze and hope to have enough munition to actually last until the fight.