Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Probably not much but in response to not referring to April issue

Unless they had medical insight from current situation that isn’t part of data

They might have that

@MarshaBradyo
Might be fair point, but this affects 500k ppl in the whole country. Not much chance of getting to a private doc who is super knowledgeable in both this and covid. Don't think it's worth the money.
Having a call with a clinical gastro doc working in a hospital is another thing. but it's beside the point.

@TheSun I have a friend with Crone's. He's been shielding all year, but my understanding is that that's not because of the disease itself, but because of the immunesuppressants that's he's on to manage it. AFAIK there's no particular known risk from Covid to people who have Crone's in itself if they don't require immunesuppressants to manage it. I think in your position I'd try to let DS have as normal a life as possible, as the risks from something he might develop in the future but hasn't as yet for any symptoms of most be pretty small. And social development is important for kids and teens.

It’s a really tough one. Are there many on forums with dc in same position? What are they thinking

@TheSunIsStillShiningTheS The GP admitted that apart from hearing about crohn's she has never had a patient with this condition in 10 years, has no idea and I should consult some specialist. But referrals are halted until april, so just wait. That surprises me, working in HR I've had more than one member of staff with crohn's, from mild symptoms to one who had to take medical retirement as it was severe.

Is there more than one GP at the surgery? Sometimes one will know more about a particular condition than another eg my GP referred me to his colleague when I had a skin lesion (early skin cancer) as the colleague was more experienced in that area.

Do you see a specialist? Could they advise.

More on the symptoms debate - they're widening the list specifically in the area of concern in the NW, in order that more come forward to be tested. Interesting:

inews.co.uk/news/health/1m-told-take-covid-19-tests-runny-nose-officials-classify-new-variants-859123?ITO=newsnow&fbclid=IwAR0Ro8O7eZUcTPGdFIPRMsEP18fGYPzpF9bfAMOJOxn5Vn1DfbWLa13KV10

I think even runny nose has been of other countries' symptom lists all along.

@Firefliess
Ok, you are totally the opposite, so can I pick your brain? :)
Wouldn't the fact that you might "cripple" him play any part? As much as I agree with socialization, we are on the opinion that he can catch up and actually has a busy online social life and is voice chatting al afternoons, but if he is triggered than all his life he will have to deal with it.

re:immunosuppresants: here you are on the cv list if you are actively taking them, but given how this condition is basically your own immune system attacking your own body and causing havoc, many other countries have in remission phase on the cv list as well. As it can be easily triggered into a flare by mundane things like the flu.
The problem is that there is no consensus like with heart disease or others. It's hard to navigate when you don't have enough info.

@ancientgran
atm it's not easy to get hold of any other doc. The prev -who retired- knew way more about this whole thing. And docs have enough on their plate, we made our decision, so not bothering them.
I was just curious of other's opinion.

@TheSun I don't think I know enough really about this triggering business. I thought Crone's was something that just manifested at some point in people with an inbuilt disposition, for no really understood reason? But I may be wrong there - you probably know a lot more than me about it.

Difficult situation Sun, as the evidence is emerging piece by piece. something else I would bear in mind though, is that unfortunately some imunosupressed patients will have a suboptimal response to the vaccine and are therefore advised to continue to avoid exposure.

It maybe that a Covid vaccine is the right option when the whole picture is assessed but that may not necessarily mean a return to school.

Re the long list of symptoms - I don't know why they don't extend the list of symptoms to be tested for. The dashboard clearly shows testing capacity at about twice demand. And DS who works in a testing lab says they are not busy at all currently and only doing half what they could do. So seems like a good time to increase the list of symptoms. Or are they worried about the impact on the NHS and possibly schools with lots of people continuing having to isolate while waiting for test results? You'd think the benefits of reducing transmission would make that a price worth paying though. And many of the symptoms (gasto in particular) are things people ought to be staying at home with anyway.

@TheSunIsStillShining I understand your point, shame the more knowledgeable doctor retired. Not sure if all GPs are the same but with mine you can use their online service to ask a question and they are quite good at getting back to you as I assume they can do it quickly between patients or something.

Shame it isn't something you can get tested for, my family carries the BRCA1 gene, I waited a while (as my grandmother and aunts died the gene hadn't even been identified but we could see something was going on) to get tested but was such a relief to know I didn't carry it, not so much for me but for my children and grandchildren.

@Firefliess
unfortunately yes :( and I'm in contact with a few research groups. Consensus among them is what I wrote originally. By now they actually have found the/a gene that is responsible and are now working on how to turn it off. if that makes sense. But it's going to be many years. Quite underfunded area. as many rare(ish) are.

20 years ago in hungary I was one of a handful who had this and had to get up to speed on my own as general docs were useless. Until I found one who was a specialist and I'm still helping him with translations. It's easy to be in the loop like this :)

Thank you everyone for the responses. I feel less of a paranoid git :)

@Firefliess

Re the long list of symptoms - I don't know why they don't extend the list of symptoms to be tested for. The dashboard clearly shows testing capacity at about twice demand. And DS who works in a testing lab says they are not busy at all currently and only doing half what they could do. So seems like a good time to increase the list of symptoms. Or are they worried about the impact on the NHS and possibly schools with lots of people continuing having to isolate while waiting for test results? You'd think the benefits of reducing transmission would make that a price worth paying though. And many of the symptoms (gasto in particular) are things people ought to be staying at home with anyway.

Absolutely!!

and before anyone asks: I'd like to ask this super-doc, but I can't get a hold of him for many months now :(

Yes, I think they are worried about asking too many people and too many families to self-isolate for no reason while waiting for test results.

Based on Zoe data, only 1% of people with headaches have got COVID. The percentage for runny nose, if I remember correctly, was even lower. If someone gets tested repeatedly and has to self-isolate every single time, there is a risk of fatigue. Next time when the individual might in fact have covid, they simply will not bother.

Zoe's research does not seem to suggest that the new strain is associated with different symptoms:

covid.joinzoe.com/post/no-evidence-for-changes-in-symptoms-from-new-coronavirus-variant

Previously Zoe's data indicated that testing people with the three symptoms should pick up 85% of symptomatic cases.

Cynically, would there be pressure not to widen the group of symptoms so that the numbers don’t appear to go up again?
Bollocks, but widening testing = increased positives = poor newspaper headlines.

Goodness knows. Some other countries use medically trained staff to decide if someone needs a test. I wonder if we're one of the few countries which doesn't.

[quote JanuaryChill]Medics calling for longer symptom list: saying we ignore this "at our peril":

www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n283[/quote]
Having just had Covid (spent a week in hospital, still not back to work a week post discharge) I had to lie in the end to get a test as I didn't have any of the classic 3 symptoms but there was clearly something very wrong. Sneezing, runny nose, extreme fatigue, Diarrhoea, low SpO2 levels, and periodic temperature drops when all the blood would retreat from my hands and feet and they'd go white, and I'd be shivering (more like hypothermia). According to the medical staff in hospital they were seeing a lot of people who didn't have any of the 3 symptoms needed for a test. It does make me wonder how many people with those symptoms but less severe would be still out spreading it as they don't match the official advice about when to test.

Bollocks, but widening testing = increased positives = poor newspaper headlines.

However, restricted testing will lead to increased transmission and eventually increased numbers of people with symptoms, increased positive tests and the same poor newspaper headlines.

JVT mentioned at one of the briefings that people with unusual symptoms might want to take LFT. I think it is a very reasonable and pragmatic approach (like most suggestions coming from JVT). If the risk of a positive test is very low, we should not be expecting people and their families to self-isolate for days. We will need a faster turnaround time even at the risk that the result might not be 100% accurate.

Oh yes I think he did @wintertravel1980.

You'd think they could at least extend testing to people with any symptoms at all and known contact with a Covid case would you? There must be a higher chance of those people having Covid. Or just test all close contacts whether they have symptoms or not? Seems mad that you could be isolating with household full of people with Covid, come down with a sore throat, headache, etc 9 days in, and go back to work the next day because you've finished your 10 day isolation.

Yes, known contact is a huge risk so "feeling unusual" should be enough for a test. It seems from mumsnet like a lot of people think they can or should get a test as a contact, formalising it as 5 and 9 days post contact (or whatever) may well help.

Yes, good ideas. I guess the fear is that people would break isolation after the Day 5 test if negative though