Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 28th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Has anyone seen any reports from anywhere in the world about "apps" and how successful they are?

They've all been fairly useless. Mostly because the implementation route chosen by mobile phone companies gives too much privacy at the expense of identifying contacts.
This article from August tried to inspire optimism about Ireland and Germany that looks misplaced when reading the detail: "Is a successful contact tracing app possible? These countries think so. – MIT Technology Review" www.technologyreview.com/2020/08/10/1006174/covid-contract-tracing-app-germany-ireland-success/amp/.
This later article from October didn't pick that up and remains dismal except Singapore: "Contact-tracing apps: there's no evidence they're helping stop COVID-19" theconversation.com/amp/contact-tracing-apps-theres-no-evidence-theyre-helping-stop-covid-19-148397.
By December - still all a bit dismal on the app success side: "Why many countries failed at COVID contact-tracing — but some got it right" www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03518-4 .

They are all media write-ups, I was hoping for some actual science, obviously as I said when they were being proposed it was very unlikely to work I have a lot of bias in my view of if they would (and I disagree about the privacy aspect too, it's very unlikely to have made any difference and just lowered the pathetic take-up even more.)

Here, they've certainly completely stopped advertising/encouraging it, so the assumption is they saw zero value from it, but I was wondering if any of that had been published.

@littlestpogo

The Ealing case of S African variant is from December it appears ( which I guess makes sense as genome testing takes time).

Ealing have been in the top 10 worst hit boroughs for virus cases for weeks now. I have been watching it with some amazement on the covidmessenger site. Something odd is going on there.

@Haffiana - yes noticed it’s also been located in Merton which was very high for a while but coming down now.

Actually it’s unclear from reporting which areas have had suspected community transmission as opposed to just identified cases ( looks like Ealing, Surrey and Kent with enhanced testing atm).

Maybe the door to door testing will help more generally with whatever is going on in Ealing

Anyone know which bits of Hertfordshire are being tested for the SA variant?

Ealing was historically one of the highest boroughs in London alongside Hounslow until the new variant took off in East London. Hounslow and Ealing are both back up near the top of the table for England, so hopefully it’s more reflective of the high density population, inter generational living and high proportion of out of the home workers rather than a large (until now undetected) cluster of SA variant covid.... (clutching at straws)

GU21 area is right next to us. Interesting to note that over a month, that area was dark pink (never purple), and it leached over into our area, going through a couple of others, and then out to Aldershot. However, the very same area, is, as we type, dark blue and pale blue, with reductions in infections of between 50% and 60%, over the whole area.

Hopefully this will translate into the variant not having taken much of a hold? Or it isn't that infectious? Lockdown working, or not enough people have been getting tested? We will find out......

[quote littlestpogo]@Haffiana - yes noticed it’s also been located in Merton which was very high for a while but coming down now.[/quote]
Yes! Merton was weirdly high for a long while before Christmas, and before that it was Richmond for weeks. I don't think Richmond was the SA variant as it was far too early, but something odd was going on.

All relatively affluent areas, all with unusual infection profiles for London boroughs.

In Hertfordshire it’s EN10 area of Broxbourne according to BBC. Broxbourne had very high numbers and they set up several walk in no appointment needed community testing centres before Christmas. Indeed there was one set up in our local open air marketplace. The numbers have been coming down recently.

@lurker101

Ealing was historically one of the highest boroughs in London alongside Hounslow until the new variant took off in East London. Hounslow and Ealing are both back up near the top of the table for England, so hopefully it’s more reflective of the high density population, inter generational living and high proportion of out of the home workers rather than a large (until now undetected) cluster of SA variant covid.... (clutching at straws)

Compare it to the profile of a borough such as Lambeth or Haringey which really does tick those boxes though. Haringey's cases and infection profile is what you would expect from a deprived borough when the Kent variant hit London.

Ealing is not deprived and is - different.

Thank you! Yes Broxbourne was v high. Welwyn Hatfield also stayed rising whilst lots of other places were falling, but is falling now.

Ealing. The dark purple bits are Southall and Hounslow Heath, so It looks like a link with the Asian community. It doesn't look like it's really gone away since December, though cases have dropped they are coming down just a little more slowly and from big numbers. I would suspect some links with deliveries and the Southall shops, because of the way the new wave of cases seemed to hit Southall at almost exactly the same time as east London boroughs.

@haffiana I agree that the whole Borough isn’t deprived, my point was more around the large pockets of deprivation such as Northolt, Southall, Acton and Greenford, which are the areas of Ealing which seem to have consistently had the largest share of cases (they’re still purple on the Govt. map compared to other parts of Ealing which are now blue).

Not surprised Broxbourne was high. It is only 15 minute drive from me. When the moved London and Essex into tier whatever and closed our cafes and restaurants. Guess where everyone headed too. Broxbourne on the corner of Essex and London 🤦‍♀️

It has a lovely extremely population kid friendly zoo too

I do not think Ealing is that different from other London boroughs.

The curve is flatter and the drop is slower in comparison to East London. However their high point in early Jan was “only” 1,091.8 while a borough like Barking and Dagenham reached 1,639.2.

The latest percentage change in 7-day case rate for Ealing is 34.4%. It is a meaningful decrease consistent with whole of London (which is down 36.4%).

I was following quite an interesting thread about the SA stuff which has now been taken down for "going downhill" whatever that means as it did have some interesting stuff on it. So thank you for this thread and the measured discussion here, most helpful.

@wintertravel1980

I do not think Ealing is that different from other London boroughs.

The curve is flatter and the drop is slower in comparison to East London. However their high point in early Jan was “only” 1,091.8 while a borough like Barking and Dagenham reached 1,639.2.

The latest percentage change in 7-day case rate for Ealing is 34.4%. It is a meaningful decrease consistent with whole of London (which is down 36.4%).

Yes, exactly. Barking and Dagenham behaved as expected, as typical, with high points in early Jan followed by a typical for London drop.

Ealing does not follow that trajectory. Later high point. Slower drop. Always in the top 10 UK boroughs for cases/100k. Not the same as the rest of London, east or west.

Something is keeping the numbers high in a relatively affluent borough.

18607/406

Ealing includes Southall and Wembley which may have more deprivation and crowded/inter-generational living than other boroughs in London. Similarly if you look at Slough and neighbouring Windsor & Maidenhead, two very different stories.

@Monkeytennis97

18607/406

This looks good

I know it’s Monday. Does anyone have last week?

Last Monday was
22195
592
Going down nicely.

Still worried about the false negative rate of lateral flow tests. It depends how many truly asymptomatic people are taking them I think. Don't suppose this is being monitored anywhere is it?