How long will people agree to make these sacrifices for?

[DappledOliveGroves]

Inspired by another thread here.

Let's assume the vaccines don't do what they should - either because the virus mutates so rapidly or because our government can't manage to adhere to Pfizer's protocol and a lone dose does nothing to protect people.

Then what?

For all those champing at the bit for curfews, harsher lockdowns, further restrictions on civil liberties - I'm genuinely curious - how long are you willing to maintain this status quo?

Would you be happy to still be in this lockdown in a year? Two years? Five years? Even if the lockdowns are eased and clamped down again, would you be willing to accept rolling lockdowns as a fact of life with no end in sight? At what point would those wanting tougher restrictions decide they can't live like this anymore?

And oh look - it appears actual child experts do think kids are negatively affected! Shocker. www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/coalition-of-child-experts-urge-inquiry-into-uks-covid-crisis

If it goes on as long as all that (ten years did someone suggest?), then some of you might change your minds as you move from the ‘probably not at very much risk’ to the ‘bloody hell it could be rather nasty’ age group. I do think there is a clear link between what you are prepared to put up with in terms of restrictions and the potential severity of your illness. If (when?) another virus comes along which affects other age groups and vulnerabilities , it will be interesting to see if reactions change or if humans are inherently selfish.

There’s loads on negative impact on children, in various studies and representation from child services etc

It’s more on here you see a lot of dismissal around it

@TheKeatingFive

A five year old who looses their parent to Covid will never be ok.

The likelihood of this is small.

Disrupted education is a long term problem and many will not recover ground lost.

Exactly. It is morally reprehensible to deny children their education and I would like to see schools open again as soon as possible. The price our children and teenagers are expected to pay is too high and it's immensely selfish of people to expect them to continue doing so.

I am astonished people have cooperated so far and I will be joining first signs of mass non-compliance.

Are you saying people are CEV is as a result of something the NHS is doing, or not doing?

Not in every case, but potentially, yes
If someone is already vulnerable with (insert condition) and they've failed to get the necessary interventions, it's entirely possible that they'll become extremely vulnerable in time ... and that applied even before Covid

@MarshaBradyo

There’s loads on negative impact on children, in various studies and representation from child services etc

It’s more on here you see a lot of dismissal around it

Yes - which is very odd on a forum ostensibly for parents.

We do not know that DCs who have not been able to socialise with their peers for a considerable length of time and start showing worrying behaviours as a result,will be ok in the future.

Are we child psychologists now, who can tell simply by one mumsnet post that a child will definitely recover when life gets back to some sort of normal ?

The mental health impacts of this will reverberate for years, not to mention physical health as DCs not able to play sport or simply play with their peers -and yes of course it is parent's responsibility to get them out for a bit, but it's not the same.

I agree lockdown right now is necessary. Once the most vulnerable have both vaccines - we need to get on with it. We cannot stop all deaths and long term illnesses. once the NHS can cope with the numbers there's no great moral imperative for lockdown.

I am willing to comply for the next few months, whilst we vaccinate (which is going well by anyone's standards!) and allow the NHS to claw back. But after that.... No.

Humans cannot live this way indefinitely, and they won't.

I find MN to be staggeringly anti child sometimes

@BustopherPonsonbyJones

If it goes on as long as all that (ten years did someone suggest?), then some of you might change your minds as you move from the ‘probably not at very much risk’ to the ‘bloody hell it could be rather nasty’ age group. I do think there is a clear link between what you are prepared to put up with in terms of restrictions and the potential severity of your illness. If (when?) another virus comes along which affects other age groups and vulnerabilities , it will be interesting to see if reactions change or if humans are inherently selfish.

I think a lot of how you look at covid is how you look at life in general. I have critical illness cover and life insurance and have had it for years because any illness can strike you down or kill you. I don't think I am invincible and many people die early in life. Covid is just another to add to the list.

I don’t get the minimisation of effect on children either. It’s rare to see posts highlighting this which is odd

Not really, Marsha - may it's just too painful to confront, and is just one more reason to stick heads in the sand and hope to god the vaccines work

The nhs as we know it is finished anyway. The public sector cuts in the next few years will be devastating

Quite so - I may not like the idea, but I certainly agree with it

@Puzzledandpissedoff

If the NHS collapsed it would feed into plenty of other areas of society as more and more people die, not just of covid, or become more sick and disabled

I hate to say it, but if we regard the NHS in the light of preventing folk becoming sick and disabled, then looking at the % considered CEV it could be argued it's already collapsed

And let's say some were ready to lock down for years to protect it - even ignoring the issue of tax revenues, what makes anyone think that would make any difference? Does anyone seriously imagine that money would be spent on the NHS front line instead of continuing cronyism and political vanity projects?

I'm with you there. I have no faith in this government to invest in the NHS. They have shown over years they don't give a fig about sick and disabled people. And I'd say that austerity has contributed to the number of disabled and sick people in society, because they've been systematically failed and conditions have worsened due to appalling ideology-driven decisions on benefits and employment.

I don't think long term lockdowns could be a solution at all or even possible. I just think it's the only option we have right now, in this acute state we are left in, and the vaccine will hopefully get us out.

If it doesn't , or if covid mutates to a more virulent strain, I have no idea what the solution would be, unless the government could pull all out for investing heavily in the NHS. That would only be viable for a long term solution, though.

When you are faced with a burning building full of people, you don't just leave it burning. It's the acute nature of this that's the issue.

And yes, the governments poor attempt at test and trace contributed to this dreadful situation we are in now.

@bookworm14 I am so sorry your DD is suffering. It must be heartbreaking for you to see her like that. Whatever the ins and outs of all this are, many people are suffering and the best thing we can do is try and get it over with as soon as possible.

How long will people make these sacrifices?

Well, they can't go to a pub, restaurant or theatre that's closed, or a sports match behind closed doors, can they? They'll have to wait till it's permitted.

In terms of household mixing, well plenty of people have been doing as they like throughout.

'There’s loads on negative impact on children, in various studies and representation from child services etc It’s more on here you see a lot of dismissal around it'

I don't dismiss it, it is clearly impacting on all dc the lack of socialising and education. My point is the alternative, no restrictions and thousands more dying with hospitals over capacity and not able to offer emergency care for other illnesses is far worse.

@SinisterBumFacedCat

I'm sick of people talking about those working for the NHS as 'heroes'. No-one held a gun to their head and forced them into this career.

I don’t think any of them expected to in the shit storm of a situation they in, anymore than you could have predicted this happening and made preparations. The thing is they are and they are on the frontline of this seeing things we can’t even imagine more and more every day. And becoming very sick themselves in the process. Still “no one is holding a gun to their head” are they?

If people do “rebel and protests” we will never be rid of this.

By that argument (that they chose to join), we shouldn't honour our war dead as heroes. They signed up in 1914. They chose to go to battle.

They are heroes and should be appreciated as such. Same with all emergency services workers every year not just 2020 and now.

Those who talk about it in regards to the NHS collapsing, the NHS is finished anyway etc do you realise that whatever health system we had public, private or something in between would not be able to cope with the numbers of extremely sick people coming through the doors at the moment. No provision is infinite. It's not about the institution of the NHS that's another debate it's about healthcare capacity and no system however good has infinite capacity which is why places which had high transmission rates and high hospitalisation rates are really struggling no matter what politics the healthcare system is based on (California, Italy, Spain, U.K. massively different systems all imploding)

@DappledOliveGroves

But people die all the fucking time. I think I'm baffled as to the arrogance of the human race believing it can control a virus and cheat death. At some point, when antibiotic resistance is widespread, perhaps our thinking will change and we'll realise we're not the most important thing on the planet.

We're overpopulated and we live too long, that's where i'd agree with you.

Allowing hospitals to be so overloaded with Covid that they can't treat anyone else, isn't the way to go though. Do you think this government of sociopaths would lockdown if they didn't have to? We're in this mess because they ignored the warning signs in the weeks before Christmas.

'They are heroes and should be appreciated as such. Same with all emergency services workers every year not just 2020 and now.'

Absolutely. Imagine for starters doing a 12 hr shift in full ppe when many struggle with a 20min walk round Tescos wearing a thin face cover (disclaimer I'm not talking about those genuinely exempt).

@Bumpsadaisie I’m afraid many children have missed more than 1.5 or even 2 terms by the end of this lockdown. My kids didn’t go back at all in the summer. One of my children had another half term out because of 3 stints of isolation due to her form and a contact testing positive. My March she will have had only half a term out of a whole year in school. She also started secondary school in September so missed a huge amount at the end of year 6 (I’m not just talking learning) and also during the first year of a new school.
No of course we are not living on the Gaza Strip as your post points out, and yes we are still incredibly privileged living here, but sadly that knowledge does not help me somehow, dig my way out from feeling incredibly desperate that my children’s short childhood years are being taken without joy.
Also, even before lock down, the rule of 6 was still in place for a long time and if you are a family of 6 as we are, that doesn’t allow you to see anyone else as a family.
Even if I left my husband at work and took the kids, we still couldn’t see my parents for example so it’s not quite as simple as you describe for everyone

@wonkylegs

Those who talk about it in regards to the NHS collapsing, the NHS is finished anyway etc do you realise that whatever health system we had public, private or something in between would not be able to cope with the numbers of extremely sick people coming through the doors at the moment. No provision is infinite. It's not about the institution of the NHS that's another debate it's about healthcare capacity and no system however good has infinite capacity which is why places which had high transmission rates and high hospitalisation rates are really struggling no matter what politics the healthcare system is based on (California, Italy, Spain, U.K. massively different systems all imploding)

No matter how good a country's healthcare system there's only so many beds and so many nurses. There's a reason every country locked down. Some of the ones that did so successfully are back to relative normality now.

It's the acute nature of this that's the issue

I agree completely, but even with acute situations we need to look at the factors which have fed into them, and that's where the money and mismanagement come into it

The question of when "the cure becomes worse than the disease" is an ongoing one, but what worries me is that there don't seem to be enough rational minds in government who are engaged on it

I suspect we might face a quiet rebellion as compliance crumbles.
Students have already defied pleas to remain at home. They did it last lockdown, they haven’t done it this lockdown.
And yes I know that certain wonderful MN children have stayed in their bedrooms knitting tea cosies for the NHS with a cheery smile, glad to zoom for the rest of their days... meanwhile the majority of students have returned.

I'm done making sacrifices. Flame me I really don't care, I see my mother, my friend and her daughter came to my house earlier to play with my child, I wear my mask and that's it. The government has done a really good job of making it everyone else's responsibility and some of the people on here get very hysterical about it, we have one life and i'm not spending it how i have for the last year I'm spending it how i please.

OP:

Let's assume the vaccines don't do what they should - either because the virus mutates so rapidly or because our government can't manage to adhere to Pfizer's protocol and a lone dose does nothing to protect people.

I get that you’re just hypothesising, but blimey that is an extremely bleak hypothesis - and is vanishingly unlikely.

Virus mutates? They can tweak the vaccine in six weeks and revaccinate the most vulnerable within 4 months.

One shot doesn’t give enough protection? They will start giving second jab within three weeks. We will actually have the capacity (more than 2 million per week) to give everyone two doses annually on a rolling programme should that turn out to be needed.

So, if either of your disaster scenarios arose, it would be pretty bad, and would delay the point at which we can open up. But not forever. Not for two years, not even for one.

@GetOffYourHighHorse

'There’s loads on negative impact on children, in various studies and representation from child services etc It’s more on here you see a lot of dismissal around it'

I don't dismiss it, it is clearly impacting on all dc the lack of socialising and education. My point is the alternative, no restrictions and thousands more dying with hospitals over capacity and not able to offer emergency care for other illnesses is far worse.

Yes, I agree. If thousands upon thousands of people are unable to access treatment for accidents, other conditions etc then it's going to have catastrophic ramifications across society. It already is doing for those missing cancer treatment and people like me who have been waiting on appointments for almost a year. My condition has worsened but I can't get to see my specialist at the moment. A quick phone call doesn't cut it. And the result of that kind of piling on to healthcare services would result in huge and utterly catastrophic mental health issues for many, many people, including children, losing their parents (or parents losing their children.)

My kids are struggling but don't see it as a sacrifice they are making, but simply a thing to be endured. They would be far worse off if I couldn't access hospital treatment next time I need it (which is a regular thing for me) and then die because of that, which I would. Replicate that across hundreds of thousands and you have an even greater tragedy.

So yes, no one is saying children don't suffer or matter. What we are actually saying is that they matter so much that we simply must do all we can to get through this as quickly as we can, so that we can all begin to recover.

Just for some balance, a good friend of mine's DD was suffering from some profound anxiety issues before this, and since home schooling she has completely recovered and is very different. She feels like her Dds life has actually been saved. And other children I know of are so much happier without the pressure of school, or bullying. We must not weigh the narrative all on one side, just as we must not deny that anyone at all is suffering, or conversely deny that covid is a tragedy.

to all those who's children are struggling.