If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

[RosieLemonade]

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

That 33% apparently relates to only 14days after the first injection is given. It’s not necessarily a very helpful figure.

Don't know what the government are playing at, it's like giving someone half a painkiller, only the correct dose will work.

That is a good example but not of what you’re trying to say. Taking half a painkiller will “work”, just not as fully effectively as the whole dose.

Don’t get me wrong, the Israeli data is concerning but it’s not panic stations yet.

That 33% apparently relates to only 14days after the first injection is given. It’s not necessarily a very helpful figure.

Ok good to know

@Anniegetyourgun

Society doesn't break down if you can't go to the pub confused It's bad news for publicans, for example, but they could be supported to start a different business. Just because we are currently used to living in each other's pockets doesn't mean we have to. A lot of people already have fairly isolated but perfectly sustainable lifestyles.

And people being fed won't happen if we go around infecting farmers, food processors and distributors.

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@Littlewhitedove2

I’m not taking about people just not being able to ‘go to the pub’ jeez it goes so far deeper than that.

Millions of people have built their whole lives around working in a job where social distancing isn’t possible longer term. It isn’t a case of ‘oh just find another job that works from home’! That is extremely simplistic!

Imagine if all the people who work in restaurants, pubs, bars, theatres, cinemas, events, or indeed any job which involves people gathering inside is no longer viable. Millions without a job, you can just re train and find other jobs for millions of people.

Far less council tax paid which means that you are affected. No one to pay for the bin men, the lighting, road repairs and the 100’s of other unnoticed jobs that YOU rely on being done to function.

Now you cannot drive your car safely and lots of road around you are closed for months on end with no one to repair them. Meanwhile, thousands of people and families can no longer afford their homes as their jobs no longer exist. They want what you have and it doesn’t take long for some of the less fortunate and less moral to start to think about taking it from you by force or stealth.

This is the break down and it’s what we would be facing if millions were unemployed.

Excellent post littlewhitedove. ^ The level of ignorance from some posters about how lockdown and the pandemic is affecting people (or according to them, barely affecting them at ALL!) knows no bounds...

Then again, there are some people on here who think anyone can just retrain for a new career at the drop of a hat, and slip easily into a new fabulous shiny career (where they can work from home of course.)

The job will be really well paid, and have fabulous promotion opportunities, and even if they're in their mid 50s, employers will be desperate to employ them. (Even though 100s of 1000s of people will be after the same job! Many of them much younger. And yes, age discrimination does still happen, and it happens a lot!)

In reality of course, millions of unskilled labour workers, and hospitality workers will be unemployed - long-term.

In reality, several million people will be lucky to find another job - doing anything - and some of them (especially mid 50s and older,) may never work again at all.

In reality, the effects of Covid19 and (the 3 lockdowns,) has been devastating, and depressing, and a massive struggle for millions of people, and not just because they can't go to the fucking PUB!

@DecemberSun

'WiseUpJanetWeiss

Maybe wise up yourself.

For fuck’s sake we don’t yet know how well it prevents infection or how well it prevents transmission.

Why do people do this? Is it an issue with reading comprehension?

It's an issue of having a son working in the research who tells me this is the situation right now. I think he knows better than a random person on mumsnet. It may change, it may not., But that's how it is now.

You said The vaccine doesn't stop you getting the virus. Not sure why people think it does. It just means you don't get it so badly. You can also still pass it on.

This is a very bold (and sneery) claim. And then you say It may change, it may not.

What may change?

If your son knows now 100% that the vaccines (all of them) don’t prevent infection and don’t prevent transmission how can that change?

The situation right now is WE DON’T KNOW.

You may be right, you may be wrong.

[quote Ori2021]@Magnifythatpie

So say we have to have social distancing measures for the next two winters which isn’t beyond the realms of possibility. What are we going to do in that situation?

Socially distance. It's here for the long haul. It will be common practice going forward, esp. over the winter months.[/quote]
Oh FFS do you really and truly believe that? That every winter we we won't be allowed to mix households or spend Christmas with family or friends? That for several months of every year we'll have to keep 2m away from all our loved ones if we don't live with them?

RichardMarxisinnocent I think there is quite a strong chance that for the next two winters our lives will be very disrupted. I don’t want this to be the case at all but I think that it is essential to think further forward than this summer. I also don’t think that people should be shouted down for considering that this might be the case and thinking that the government should plan accordingly. The idea that schools should be disrupted again as they have been this year makes me sick with dread.

@Magnifythatpie

RichardMarxisinnocent I think there is quite a strong chance that for the next two winters our lives will be very disrupted. I don’t want this to be the case at all but I think that it is essential to think further forward than this summer. I also don’t think that people should be shouted down for considering that this might be the case and thinking that the government should plan accordingly. The idea that schools should be disrupted again as they have been this year makes me sick with dread.

But why? If the aim is met and all adults are vaccinated by September, why would this be the case?

I don’t understand what they mean when they say a ‘stricter’ lockdown may be needed. What would that involve?

How can we get much stricter than how we’re living now? I use the word ‘living’ loosely as it’s more of an existence really isn’t it (only my opinion).
Everybody who can work from home is doing so. Schools are closed to the majority of children. No mingling with anyone outside of our household. Increased police presence and fines.
So what would anything stricter actually involve?

Last March was a stricter lockdown in that people were not allowed into work except certain shops and schools for fewer key worker kids. No tradesmen or cleaners in houses. No construction sites open etc.

@BerylSilverstone I'm based on a small business park with 14 different businesses. March - 1 business stayed open. The rest furloughed staff and took every government grant going.

This time all 14 have stayed open and business is booming. Some staff appear to be working on rotas but they're mainly businessess that can't be done from home. Small manufacturers and the like.

@BerylSilverstone

I don’t understand what they mean when they say a ‘stricter’ lockdown may be needed. What would that involve?

How can we get much stricter than how we’re living now? I use the word ‘living’ loosely as it’s more of an existence really isn’t it (only my opinion).
Everybody who can work from home is doing so. Schools are closed to the majority of children. No mingling with anyone outside of our household. Increased police presence and fines.
So what would anything stricter actually involve?

I imagine stricter enforcement. I don’t think it’s true to say that everyone who can work from home is. In my circle that’s definitely not true and the traffic around rush hour times also suggests that’s not isolated to my immediate circle.

I think lockdowns can either be short and very hard or longer and softer. I don’t think there’s really the public appetite for either in England so the government will be left to make the call.

I'm not being goady, I just genuinely don't understand how so many are catching it in hospitals. If hospital PPE doesn't prevent the spread what use is my silly little handmade mask?

Speaking (sadly) from experience:

• PPE not in use on non-Covid wards
• patients tested on admission but then found a couple of days later to be positive, having spent that time on a non-Covid ward
• patients with dementia wandering about
• staff going from patient to patient distributing meals, drugs etc.

I’m not being judgemental about the above as I’ve witnessed how quickly Covid can take hold in a hospital. But my relative did not test positive for at least 3 weeks into his hospital stay. One thing that could be done in the future is assume everyone coming into hospital has Covid until proven otherwise, but obviously that would require extra staffing and other resources so I doubt it will happen.

Everybody who can work from home is doing so.

Not according to numerous posters on here who say they could quite easily work from home but their managers want them in the office.

Vaccines do work. Lockdowns sort of work.

Stay away from the news and take a breath. It

@WiseUpJanetWeiss

This is a very bold (and sneery) claim.

And shared with top virologists. But you think you know better? Of course you do.

It's how it is now because there aren't enough statistics in - how many times does it have to be explained to you?

With wider statistics available for study the thinking may change.

I think there are lots of reasons to be hopeful. Better weather alone will make a difference. Vaccines do work and are being improved. Research is continuing. Just the number of people that have zero immunity will hopefully fall so hospitals don’t have so many to deal with and can cope...But let’s just say we do all have to live some restrictions for a long time. It’s in living memory when very few people had cars, no TV or electronic games, holidays abroad were rare and for the privileged few and the fun children had was on foot, local and outdoors - yet often those childhoods are remembered as fun and joyful. Kids will play and have fun with whatever is around them and routine can make them feel more secure.

How we as parents feel and communicate about it all will influence how our kids feel. I am so sad when I think about what my DC is missing out on but we have to make the most of a crappy situation.

Not being able to play with other children is tough and detrimental to development and hopefully that won’t be for too much longer. I am just thankful that we haven’t lost anyone close to Covid yet as the loss of loved ones is harder on kids than no soft play, cinema, play dates etc.

Hang in there. There is hope and whilst this is tough it could be a lot worse. Our kids aren’t being evacuated to live with strangers, they are not hiding in shelters worrying about bombs. Mostly in the richer countries of the world they are well fed, warm and safe. Not all children are. Not to mention most kids I know have a range of toys and entertainment at home.

Hang in there.

[quote DecemberSun]@WiseUpJanetWeiss

This is a very bold (and sneery) claim.

And shared with top virologists. But you think you know better? Of course you do.

It's how it is now because there aren't enough statistics in - how many times does it have to be explained to you?

With wider statistics available for study the thinking may change.[/quote]
OK then show me the evidence of “top virologists” saying that the vaccines do not prevent infection and do not prevent transmission.

Everything I have read says there is not much evidence yet either way, but that they expect that they will reduce infections, and that people with asymptomatic infections (as opposed to pre-symptomatic) are likely not to have a high viral load so are likely not to be particularly infectious.

It’s not inconceivable that this will happen and it’s worth a conversation.

The Pfizer vaccine is 95% effective, in clinical trials, against the variants out there at the time. That is brilliant, but the proof of the pudding is when it’s rolled out at population level (along with the other vaccines).

We won’t know until then. There are certainly easily conceivable situations were it isn’t as effective as we hoped (new variants, poor take up).

It can be tweaked, we know, but production in particular, takes time.

It would be prudent for them to start planning for a situation where vaccines aren’t helping much but lockdown compliance is shot. It’s a horrible situation to think about and I sincerely hope it won’t come to pass, but it is possible.

Hopeful news that the vaccines stop transmission:
www.thejournal.ie/pfizer-ceo-5323949-Jan2021/

and

covid19vaccinetrial.co.uk/breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine

Transmission was not tested in trials so it’s an absence of evidence for transmission protection, rather than any evidence showing it doesn’t protect against this.

@Yohoheaveho. Not all those vulnerable are old or have neglected their health. I’m cev because a surgery went wrong leaving me with a seriously impaired immune system, I’m not quite middle age, work hard, active, exercise and have (had) a great social life. I’m not having a dig, it’s just a little frustrating that people forget how diverse the extremely vulnerable groups are. My situation is one anyone could find themselves in by tonight through no fault of their own at any age.

@RosieLemonade I hope some of the responses you’ve had have helped. I got in a bit of a rut seeing the media headlines, it helps me if I remember that it’s all for profit and fear drives clicks. There’s some good posts on Reddit that look at the data closely and give information to make sense of it, like the report discussed here being explored and found to not have full information or the vaccine report from Israel. I know some days it feels never ending, but we are getting closer everyday to getting some normality back, it’s not as quick as we would all like but we are on the way.

OP whilst the vaccines are showing some effect it is also prudent to remember that this data is only based on very recent recipients. Let’s see how things stand in a month or twos time.

As for lockdowns, whilst this thing is still out there we will be doing the lockdown in out game. Your DC may not be living the life they had pre covid but if you focus on making the best of a trying time they will adapt.

Kids are very resilient with the right encouragement. Don’t project your fears onto them. They will after all have to grow up and live in a world of covid until there is an actual cure that eradicates it.

actual cure that eradicates it

Absolutely hilarious. Is this a joke?! As it has made my morning. You mean the same cure we have for the common cold and flu - the one we are still searching for?

There are bigger things to worry about than death by covid.

Calledyoulastnight you’re aware that they’re estimating up to 1/5 people are ill for many weeks to months though? It’s not just about death.

Ha ha to a cure for a coronavirus.

OK then show me the evidence of “top virologists” saying that the vaccines do not prevent infection and do not prevent transmission.

Try Google. I'm not doing it for you. There are loads of articles out there, if you can be bothered to look. But feel free to carry on in ignorance.

You seem happy enough in that state.