If the vaccines do not work and lockdown isn't working

[RosieLemonade]

What happens now?
Will this actually be my child's life? Nothing but walks outside the house? I feel emotional but is this truly it now?

It’s true the vax doesn’t prevent anything. I often get NHS emails. There’s no evidence they don’t know yet. We are riding on hope that it works.

and/or haven't taken care of their health.
@Yohoheaveho
So are you blaming a type 1 diabetic for not taking care of their health
Or maybe people born with heart issues or are immunosupressed due to health conditions
There are alit of people in this Country with heslth conditions which are not self inflicted you know.

@DecemberSun and @Poppyseeds2

There is not evidence that the vaccinations don’t prevent transmission.

There just isn’t.

There isn’t yet evidence that it does prevent transmission, because the trials Didn’t Test that.

They are expecting this evidence to come in shortly. And are hoping that it will (as I linked to on the previous page).

Please share links you have to anything to back up your point of view, otherwise you are just spreading false information.

Personally I dont like the phrase "vaccines do work".
What does that even mean in reality.
If I owned a car that "worked" as well as the covid vaccines right now, I would sell it right away, quite frankly.

@MrsFezziwig Thank you for that. I was in hospital last June for an outpatient appointment. I was astounded at the number of people,
admin clinic staff, delivery drivers and others, who even then, did not bother much or at all with masks, social distancing etc.

We know that the vaccines ‘work’ in the context of clinical trials and on the variants that were around at that time.

Whether they ‘work’ now to reduce hospitalisations and deaths in the U.K. in the coming months remains to be seen.

@TheKeatingFive

We know that the vaccines ‘work’ in the context of clinical trials and on the variants that were around at that time.

Whether they ‘work’ now to reduce hospitalisations and deaths in the U.K. in the coming months remains to be seen.

Has there ever been a vaccine which performed well in clinical trials - and the Pfizer vaccine worked exceptionally well - but not in 'real life'?

@DappledOliveGroves

It's a question that needs to be asked.

If the government ignore the necessity to give the Pfizer jab three weeks apart, as they are doing, and it transpires (as the Israeli data suggests), that a lone dose offers efficacy of 30% or less, and we can see that lockdowns do very little other than destroy the economy and roll the issue forwards, with cases spreading again as soon as lockdown lifts, then what?

I've recently read books about the Spanish Flu pandemic. I cannot see any evidence which showed endless, rolling lockdowns being imposed across the globe. There were some short lockdown attempts in various cities but ultimately the Spanish flu virus ran riot, millions upon millions of young, healthy people died, yet people had little choice but to crack on, go to work, and get through it. And the pandemic ended fairly swiftly.

As this drags on, surely there will be more and more mutations as the virus seeks to spread in the face of lockdowns? I'm not a virologist, but surely the more we lockdown, the longer we draw out the pandemic?

this exactly , we cannot go on like this for another year or more surely , its beyond ridiculous now

Has there ever been a vaccine which performed well in clinical trials - and the Pfizer vaccine worked exceptionally well - but not in 'real life'?

I’ve no idea.

However, new variants might change things up a bit.

@TheKeatingFive

Has there ever been a vaccine which performed well in clinical trials - and the Pfizer vaccine worked exceptionally well - but not in 'real life'?

I’ve no idea.

However, new variants might change things up a bit.

They might. But most expert opinion seems to suggest that the vaccines could be easily adapted. There is every reason to be cautiously optimistic about the vaccines.

They might. But most expert opinion seems to suggest that the vaccines could be easily adapted. There is every reason to be cautiously optimistic about the vaccines.

I agree. However the question is timings. We’re already looking at months before any significant change will be seen.

If vaccines need to be tweaked we will be adding many more months for tweaking, production and rollout of these vaccines.

Controlling this via vaccine may be well underway in a few months or it may take significantly longer than that. It all remains to be seen.

realistically though, if it takes significantly longer than "months" - wtf do we do? because lockdown is already unsustatinable, it is not going to be sustainable for another year, .... two, .....five is it?

so what do we actually do?

there is no point in living when this is all there is.

There is a difference between "effective against symptomatic infection" & "effective against severe disease" - the vaccine trials required the former as the definition of efficacy, but reducing hospitalisations and deaths only requires the latter. So vaccines don't even need to 'work' to the extent they did in the trials (although there is no evidence yet that they won't against the current variant prevalant in the UK) in order to be effective in reducing hospital admissions and deaths.

There is a difference between "effective against symptomatic infection" & "effective against severe disease" - the vaccine trials required the former as the definition of efficacy, but reducing hospitalisations and deaths only requires the latter.

Yes absolutely.

Cases don’t matter. Hospitalisations/deaths do (and in reality, for the government, the former is more important).

There is also the question of what level of hospitalisation/deaths will we decide we are able to live with.

We know that the vaccines ‘work’ in the context of clinical trials and on the variants that were around at that time

I dont call that working. 95%, 60% whichever.
Plus trials were not even done on certain groups of people - more vulnerable groups. Plus we dont know either way about transmission. Plus we dont know how long the benefit from them last.

Better than nothing for lots of people maybe, but if any other product came to market in that state, not many would be sold on any sort of long term basis. Or even medium.

They currently probably work a bit, is the best anyone can really say.

[quote ThePricklySheep]**@DecemberSun* and @Poppyseeds2*

There is not evidence that the vaccinations don’t prevent transmission.

There just isn’t.

There isn’t yet evidence that it does prevent transmission, because the trials Didn’t Test that.

They are expecting this evidence to come in shortly. And are hoping that it will (as I linked to on the previous page).

Please share links you have to anything to back up your point of view, otherwise you are just spreading false information.[/quote]
It isn't hard to find, try looking for yourself, you may learn something.

Your denial is just silly.

@TrustTheGeneGenie

realistically though, if it takes significantly longer than "months" - wtf do we do? because lockdown is already unsustatinable, it is not going to be sustainable for another year, .... two, .....five is it?

so what do we actually do?

there is no point in living when this is all there is.

Realistically ‘years’ isn’t an option no. Pandemics on average last two years so I expect that’s the timeframe most experts are making their projections within.

Past that it would have to resort to expanding physical capabilities with things like the nightingales and accepting a lower level of professional input divided between lots of patients. Wartime medicine essentially.

Better than nothing for lots of people maybe, but if any other product came to market in that state, not many would be sold on any sort of long term basis. Or even medium.

I dont know where you’re getting that from. 95% is as good as it gets for vaccines.

And we don’t even need them to stop ppl getting the disease, reducing severity would be a huge win right now.

There are testing times ahead in terms of how well they work with new variants, but they don’t have to be particularly efficacious to make a big difference.

@lightand

We know that the vaccines ‘work’ in the context of clinical trials and on the variants that were around at that time

I dont call that working. 95%, 60% whichever.
Plus trials were not even done on certain groups of people - more vulnerable groups. Plus we dont know either way about transmission. Plus we dont know how long the benefit from them last.

Better than nothing for lots of people maybe, but if any other product came to market in that state, not many would be sold on any sort of long term basis. Or even medium.

Flu vaccines often are only about 50% effective, have to be 'tweaked' and readministered annually, yet they are considered a 'marketable' product.

Flu vaccine efficacy varies each year as the vaccines are adapted each year. However, there too for example a 50% efficacy refers to efficacy against symptomatic disease, the efficacy against severe disease and death would be higher.

@DecemberSun “It isn't hard to find, try looking for yourself, you may learn something.”

I have tried. Can you just add some links please? All I can find is “they don’t yet know”.

[quote Aposterhasnoname]Israel vaccinations fears out of context and inaccurate.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55734257[/quote]
THIS

@DecemberSun

OK then show me the evidence of “top virologists” saying that the vaccines do not prevent infection and do not prevent transmission.

Try Google. I'm not doing it for you. There are loads of articles out there, if you can be bothered to look. But feel free to carry on in ignorance.

You seem happy enough in that state.

Well no, that’s the point. I have looked and all I can find is evidence that it is not yet known.

You’re the one making the claim of certainty so you need to provide the evidence.

They are expecting this evidence to come in shortly. And are hoping that it will (as I linked to on the previous page).

Thanks @ThePricklySheep. When can we expect to start getting this evidence, do you know?

Also is it true to say that even if someone who’s had the first dose of vaccine then catches Covid, they will experience either a very mild illness or nothing at all? Does anyone know?

Mid feb for one of the vaccines

I think it’s more that they have a lower chance of getting ill and so less likely to get very ill or die.