Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Today's data

37,892 / 1290

Better than yesterday!

Another increase in vaccination, 363,508. Now First dose: 4,973,248 and Second dose (fully vaccinated): 464,036.

10 consecutive days of 1000+ deaths on those days, and surely this will continue

No, 5.07 is right as of 19th jan.

4.6m 1st doses plus 460k 2nd

I am waiting for the next release of hospital data (for England). There is some hope that admissions for whole of England peaked on January 12 at 4,134. The numbers for subsequent days keep going up and down but I hope they will no longer pass the 4,000 number.

The number of patients in hospitals appear to have stabilised and might be even going down. The current peak appears to be 34,336 on January 18. If it is indeed the high point, we might have passed it earlier than expected (fingers crossed...).

I'm not getting todays figures on the dashboard. It says at the top it has updated but then each section still shows yesterday's date and figures

Following on from the posts about Monday 18th spec dates yesterday

A further 7713 cases added today, as compared with 12185 reported last Thursday for Monday 11th spec date.

With three days worth reported Monday 18th stands at 38073 as compared with 46098 this time last week for Monday 11th. So around 17.5% lower at the moment this week.

As far as Tuesday 19th goes another 20510 added today, compared with 23563 last week, a slightly lower % fall, although still close to 13%.

Tuesday 19th so far 24790 after 2 days, this time last week Tuesday 12th was 27635. Last Friday then added another 13468, although I would hope given what we see for day 3 since Monday that tomorrow’s day 3 figure for Tuesday will be considerably lower than the 13k added last week

Sunday 17th now stands at 25623, perhaps may increase by up to another 1000 over the next few days. Sunday 10th was 32760, so we are over 20% lower.

Saturday 16th 27357, may top out around the 28000 mark. Saturday 9th was 35250, so again looking at a 20% fall.

Conversely Friday 15th pretty much all accounted for stands around 14% lower than Friday 8th

I think we need to be cautious about using hospital admissions data as objective as there is subjective decision making influencing admission from seeking professional help to meeting regional criteria for admission. A regional overwhelmed emergency service and hospital will admit less patients with equivalent need to a service that is not overwhelmed.

@ancientgran I think now that they've cancelled exams there's less pressure to treat all areas the same in terms of getting schools open for exam years. The issue of fairness isn't so pressing. (At least not for current year 11/13s). So they might go for a regional approach - it's also not a bad way of feeling your way a bit to see what impact opening schools more fully does have on cases, safer than opening them all in one big bang and then finding a big spike that's hard to deal with.

Case rates down a bit today and vaccination numbers nice and high - 363,508 vaccinated today, which would be 2.5m per week if we keep it up, and new mass vaccination centres opening today apparently, which won't have shown up in today's figures.

Did PP really just stomp up to the podium?

I must admit I’m not her biggest fan. I always get the feeling that she wants to reach forward through the screen and punch everyone watching. Probably a tad harsh on my part.

Thanks, boys3, interesting analysis. Good to see the most recent numbers are also going down. I also hope we will not see the 13k add on tomorrow to the Tuesday number!

Re hospital admission data - the numbers for an individual hospital will be less meaningful but consolidated trends at the national and regional level should tell us how much pressure the healthcare is under. For now the picture is cautiously positive - especially if the total number of patients in hospitals has finally started going down (which is a lagging factor to the fall in hospital admissions). I agree it is still a big “if” and we need to see a few more days of data.

@boys3

Did PP really just stomp up to the podium?

I must admit I’m not her biggest fan. I always get the feeling that she wants to reach forward through the screen and punch everyone watching. Probably a tad harsh on my part.

My first comment was she looks like she's in a bad mood. Probably didn't want to go out and was stamping her feet after Boris pushed her out the door

I think now that they've cancelled exams there's less pressure to treat all areas the same in terms of getting schools open for exam years. The issue of fairness isn't so pressing. (At least not for current year 11/13s)

I'd hold my horses on the outcome of the 'consultation' for that assumption...

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

Bold fail ... sorry.

I am in the slightly 'amusing' situation of being in a falling council staging a fairly meteoric rise up the charts!

Today’s healthcare numbers for England are out on the NHS website and the number of patients in hospitals has gone down again. 33,235 on Jan 21 vs 34,336 on Jan 18. Let us hope the trend continues.

@littleowl1

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

Thanks and you must be so glad you added the barometer, it's so cheering at the moment!

Okay, my concern is growing that some areas are increasing rather than decreasing cases. Comparing this Monday (where the data will be incomplete) with the previous Monday:

Leeds 446 | 412
Dudley 373 | 410
Leicester 310 | 314
Walsall 361 | 340
County Durham 324 | 307
Derby 335 | 296
Bradford 254 | 280

We've seen lowered figures overall in the country masking figures stabilising/rising in parts of the country and I'm a little concerned that's happening again. At a glance it's the poor devils in the North West again and the North East (which is going to make today's decision on vaccinations even more controversial).

Sorry what was today's decision on vaccinations?

Our council provides this data service which is essentially the same as COVID messenger but they assume a lag period of only 3 days (which is not long enough) - so gives a view of how cases are moving in the lag period

Using this view, and taking into account that the figures are understated as incomplete, there are 30 councils with rising rates (albeit a few rising by only

@JanuaryChill

Sorry what was today's decision on vaccinations?

They're halving the amount of vaccine the NE and Yorkshire get because we were too successful and got too many vaccinated :/ If my gut is right and the NW and NE are starting to rise again (I just picked out the top culprits there, there are others like Northumbria that are looking bad) this is the kind of decision that is going to come back to bite them.

Thanks @ceeveebee that pretty much confirms the quick maths I was doing in my head, and highlights a few more problem areas :(

A theory (which I'm afraid is not a cheery one). If some people still left Kent/London over Christmas to visit family around the country it would take a while before this would show as an issue in the stats. It would only have to be a few, and in the numbers we had in December an extra few infections here and there would barely be noticable. But our friend Exponential is back and by Monday it would have had time to pass on 3 or 4 times and start to show in the numbers.

Oh crikey @swg1 I'd forgotten the idea of Londoners going forth and spreading. You could be right.