Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Germany and the UK are expecting very different numbers of the Moderna/Pfizer/AZ vaccines at very different times.

If I was the head of a large country and had fifteen million double doses of each, right now, then I’d give Pfizer to the oldest age group and AZ to the under fifties. But that’s not the situation the UK is in. We have a runaway epidemic and not nearly enough Pfizer/Moderna available to vaccinate the over 65s. Our choices are to give the 65-75s age group AZ now or Pfizer in several months time.

Sorry if obvious but where are you seeing the LFT vs PCR data?

Hosp admissions are slowly creeping down.

We'll need a new thread soon!

Presumably if we’ve made the wrong decision we could revaccinate those that have had AZ with Pfizer.

Re. The lft tests. You really don’t need to be some sort of medical professional to administer them. As long as you have a reasonably steady hand to pipette drops onto a round dip in a plastic test and have a stopwatch to tell you when 30 mins have passed you’re good. If you haven’t done it properly the test will show void and the person will know and can swab again.

As far as England goes spec date wise

Friday 22nd 26849 vs 36834 the previous Friday

Sat 23rd 19760 vs 27692

Sun 24th 15250 vs 26242

But poss weather impacts for Sunday so figure could be artificially lowered.

Third day of reporting for Monday 25th another 5320 added today which compares with 7713 this time last week. Monday now 25774 as compared with 38073 equiv last week. Good chance Monday 25th will end up below 30,000. Although me suggesting that is good simply shows how bad the numbers still are.

Tuesday.......hmm after 2 days stands at 18884 vs 20510 this time last week, so about 8% lower, and perhaps reflecting some may have delayed their test given the weather????

Thanks @boys3. I would also suspect that some tests were done on Monday/ Tuesday instead of the weekend due to weather.

I'm quite worried about the proportions of LFTs (and the false negs we discussed a while ago, and resulting behaviours). If cases and test positivity is affected by this we won't necessarily know the true picture will we?

Yes I (as staff in a secondary) would say mainly from NHS /other employers using LFTs and areas with mass asymptomatic testing.

Schools are either not set up yet, only testing the skeleton staff they have in, and only testing the few students they have in.

Studies show they're less accurate when not administered by a professional. It's the swabbing that's the main issue I think.

I agree that the decisions made by birth Germany and the UK may both be reasonable given the different situations they find themselves in. AZ is a big proportion of the vaccines we've got our hands on, and we're getting though our supply fast. If we don't use the AZ vaccine on the over 65s many thousands more will die, even if it turns out only to be 50% effective, that's still a lot better than the alternative (no vaccine) Germany, meanwhile, has just found out that their supply of AZ vaccine is delayed, so there's no pressing reason not to wait for some more solid data in effecacy in the over 65s. They'll use their other supplies in the meantime (Pfizer and Moderna)

That said, I'd think you'd be naive not to believe that politics can play a part here. The German government is undoubtedly facing criticism from within about why they didn't get their order in for AZ sooner, so it's quite convenient to be able to say they're not sure it's that great a vaccine anyway...

AS requested

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4149494-Data-Stats-Daily-Numbers-started-28th-Jan

The table of cases in each council in England is updated with today's data release on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage.

Click the county column to sort by county to quickly see the situation across all councils in your county.

I have also updated the following today with the latest nhs data release:

Cases in Hospital:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-cases/

Daily Hospital Admissions: www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Patients in Ventilation Beds:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-ventilation/

Looks like daily admissions have turned a corner which is great news. Hopefully will help lower cases in hospital soon.

@Quarantino

I'm quite worried about the proportions of LFTs (and the false negs we discussed a while ago, and resulting behaviours). If cases and test positivity is affected by this we won't necessarily know the true picture will we?

That's my thinking too (but I just got that I'm too pessimistic)..... It's an easy way to bring down the positivity rate

@Quarantino have they replaced PCR tests in some areas? Were healthcare workers/teachers etc. testing regularly with PCR tests before which they’ve now changed to LFT? I genuinely don’t know, if this was the case I can understand your worry. I thought they had expanded testing using LFTs to people that wouldn’t have been tested regularly previously, such as in my Borough for asymptomatic testing, so saw it as a good thing, but I’m maybe mistaken

extra last note, so I don't spread doom and gloom on the new thread...

after a year of this shitshow I really believe that it would have been (worth) a very logical solution for european countries to somehow suspend their political parties and create union governments with experts at the helm as interim emergency leaders. Yes, I know easier said than done, but it would make for an interesting sci-fi story and/or though experiment to work through how it could work and what would have happened.

[quote lurker101]@Quarantino have they replaced PCR tests in some areas? Were healthcare workers/teachers etc. testing regularly with PCR tests before which they’ve now changed to LFT? I genuinely don’t know, if this was the case I can understand your worry. I thought they had expanded testing using LFTs to people that wouldn’t have been tested regularly previously, such as in my Borough for asymptomatic testing, so saw it as a good thing, but I’m maybe mistaken[/quote]
They definitely were not testing teachers regularly/without symptoms in our county until we had LFT.

And to my sci-fi scenario - from US:

"Irritated by the sweeping use of executive orders during the Covid crisis, state lawmakers around the US are moving to curb the authority of governors and top health officials to impose emergency restrictions such as mask rules and business shutdowns, AP reports."

Gov I might see the point. But health experts?

Lateral flow tests have been additional to PCR tests, and mainly targeted at routine testing of asymptomatic people. I'm not aware of any group who previously got routine PCR tests and are now getting lateral flow tests.

The increased use of lateral flow tests does create problems with using positivity rates to track infection rates - not so much because of the false negatives, but because they're mainly used for asymptomatic people, who are obviously going to test negative more often than those with symptoms. I think positivity rates were useful to consider when the testing system was under a lot of strain so numbers of detected cases weren't rising as fast as infection rates. But now that we're in a steady state where anyone can get a test and the system is holding up fine, it's probably more useful just to look at case numbers.

Regular pcr testing of health workers was only as far as I know if they were linked up to some sort of research? But different trusts had different policies.

An hcp friend who is a nurse at a Gp surgery says they've made a decision not using them due to inaccuracies. She's involved in a study and been doing weekly pcr.

Ironically tested positive a week after her first jab.

As far as I can tell from various hcp friends, the lft were rolled out to nhs physios, OTs, psych staff, Gp surgeries etc who weren't previously doing pcrs and working physically on the hospital wards.

Yes that makes sense @Trashedwarrier. The only person I know if having regular PCR tests is DS who works in PCR testing lab itself, so the obvious choice for them clearly. The LF tests were generally rolled out to groups not previously getting tested routinely.

I think everyone's over on the new thread btw - link from @TheSun a few posts back