Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

[quote Msloverlover]**@littlestpogo* I came on here to post that too. It’s concerning and actually quite baffling as it seems to show exactly the opposite to what @littleowl1*’s data showed over the last week - eg all regions falling but south west rising. Can anyone shed any light as to why this would be?[/quote]
The SW is struggling. Places in Devon, recording their highest rates. Swindon (which is the major hospital for the whole of Wiltshire) is in a state of emergency and is in real trouble.

www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-preprint-giving-the-interim-results-from-round-8-of-the-react-1-study-on-covid-19-spread-across-england/

I’m curious about how they fitted that line. R-squared must be very low! But then I trust them as experts in their field and I’m sure they have a good rationale and method.

When I was still doing lab work and writing papers, I would’ve had my ears boxed for fitting that!! But then it’s a completely different field. This could be normal for these kinds of data.

I love how coffeeandcroissant always pops up with the perfect link !!

@TheSunIsStillShining

If you could identify those who were much more likely to catch Covid and vaccinate them, you could potentially better protect the really vulnerable by driving infection rates down faster.

This makes sense in itself, but I don't see how vaccinating 90+, never leaves house group as driving the rates down.
By this logic I'd say school children would be close to the top of the list (16+).

Because it isn't 'leaving the house' that causes infection.

I've come to see what others think of the interpretation of the REACT graph. Fitting a linear line to where there is no data seems an extremely odd way to model case numbers. Especially when we've seen how quickly the case numbers were rising. They clearly missed the continued sharp rise in December. Viruses don't spread linearly!

So now we have press who have jumped on this, people utterly despairing - which may well cause suicidal ideation and all for something that almost certainly isn't accurate.

Hearing r4 trying to justify two contradicting models, giving extra weight to the doom model was quite something this morning.

@Itisasecret exactly. The react survey shows a decline in south west.

[quote Msloverlover]@Itisasecret exactly. The react survey shows a decline in south west.[/quote]
It’s not translating into reality that is for sure! There are some really serious problems in the SW.

I've just looked at the REACT diagrams, I also really don't understand where they are getting their lines from. Can they not say "cases are higher than they were, but the variation is too high to say with certainty whether they are currently trending up or down"? I mean, isn't it professionally and scientifically more accurate to say "I don't know" than to create anything with such a flimsy link?

The SW is struggling. Places in Devon, recording their highest rates. Swindon (which is the major hospital for the whole of Wiltshire) is in a state of emergency and is in real trouble. Devon has offered to take cases from Dorset as hospitals in Dorset overwhelmed, well that was what I heard. I believe they are in the Nightingale in Exeter.

Is it possible that SW and East of England are getting an additional impact from having previously low cases? If old variant can get a certain % based on risk factors but new variant gets a higher %, then when the new variant moves into an area there is a higher percentage of people likely to get exposed who have no immunity. (I don't mean herd immunity, because we aren't there, but there are a proportion of people who are more exposed even during lockdown).

@MRex

Is it possible that SW and East of England are getting an additional impact from having previously low cases? If old variant can get a certain % based on risk factors but new variant gets a higher %, then when the new variant moves into an area there is a higher percentage of people likely to get exposed who have no immunity. (I don't mean herd immunity, because we aren't there, but there are a proportion of people who are more exposed even during lockdown).

I think that sounds likely, has worried me since the new variant was known about but I don't think Devon has done as badly as I feared.

"63% of residents in elderly care homes had now received a vaccine" - slow progress, but that's a good leap from a few days ago.
Source is Hancock in the commons towards the end of the article: www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55751915

On lockdown, that link says Boris says they will only start to look at whether or not to ease restrictions from mid-Feb. This article meanwhile says schools will have 2 weeks notice: www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55747064. So that means schools will not return until 1st March at the earliest, rather than after half term.

@MRex

On lockdown, that link says Boris says they will only start to look at whether or not to ease restrictions from mid-Feb. This article meanwhile says schools will have 2 weeks notice: www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55747064. So that means schools will not return until 1st March at the earliest, rather than after half term.

If what Gav said holds. I’d take his interview comments with a pinch of salt these days.

Lots of Twitter agreeing with our armchair statistical analysis of earlier twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1352188066220429312?s=21 although much more for the reasons @Firefliess came up with than my clutching at straws theories about length of infection.

I saw an "Our World in Data" graph used on BBC that put UK doses at 7.6m and Israel 35m. But that's not right for UK at least, latest government figures are just over 5m. How is this so far wrong (and why haven't the BBC noticed?).
"Coronavirus (COVID-19) Vaccinations - Statistics and Research - Our World in Data" ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

@MRex that is odd.

Sounds like the doses per hundred figures.

Yes, that's what the chart says

(Not meant to sound sarky!)

@MRex

On lockdown, that link says Boris says they will only start to look at whether or not to ease restrictions from mid-Feb. This article meanwhile says schools will have 2 weeks notice: www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-55747064. So that means schools will not return until 1st March at the earliest, rather than after half term.

In that link Jenny Harries says schools might reopen by region. I think that will cause upset with some exam year pupils back in school and others not. I thought if it wasn't all going back they would prioritise year groups.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel - ah right, equivalent to scaling up 68m to 100m. That also explains the 35m for Israel! It isn't remotely clear in my opinion, but thanks for clarifying at least what the graph was trying to do.

@TheCountessofFitzdotterel

Sounds like the doses per hundred figures.

There's a chart for doses per hundred and a chart for total number of doses, the 2nd one shows 5.07 million. I think that is still too high isn't it? But closer.

37892/1290