Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Good thread on the implications of that antibody study on 501Y.V2 - quite reassuring again!

mobile.twitter.com/trvrb/status/1351785352793493505

everythingthelight
is this extract from the discussion bit of your link good news ?

. "Despite neutralization escape, we show here that a significant proportion of non-neutralizing, RBD binding antibodies remain active against 501Y.V2. While antibody effector functions elicited by infection and vaccination have been implicated in protecting from
reinfection and disease35,36, the role of non-neutralizing antibodies and the efficacy of T cell responses to 501Y.V2 remain to be elucidated. "

QueenSromba

Some antibody action without neutralising antibodies could result in antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) where the virus uses imperfect antibodies to gain entry to macrophages

I feel so dense but does that^^ answer my question at 10.06 with a negative?.

@Piggywaspushed

The age groups are different little and their list 1B is distinctly different.

How can it be different when our list b (under 50's) hasn't yet been decided.....

If I were a US policy maker, given various structural issues and problems reported so far, I think I’d want to ensure that I cast the net of target groups as widely as possible to ensure at all times that vaccines go into arms.

@peridito

QueenSromba

Some antibody action without neutralising antibodies could result in antibody dependent enhancement (ADE) where the virus uses imperfect antibodies to gain entry to macrophages

I feel so dense but does that^^ answer my question at 10.06 with a negative?.

Could go either way. The thing about biology is you can't always extrapolate from in vitro studies or from previous similar scenarios.

Thanks for the new thread. This continues to keep me grounded from the craziness and denial out there.

Thank you QS

What's more complicated than police/teachers is how to then segregate all the other key workers; retail only for what's open or non-essential only? food production and manufacturing (or packaging) or all manufacturing due to risk (even ones that aren't safer)? all transport staff or only customer facing? what about restaurants, pubs and theatres so they can get back to work at last? A hint in the news about office staff is ridiculous, if they can work from home then stay home a few weeks longer and wait. Regardless, the list starts to get very long as it could cover half or more of the remaining population, as well as being so burdensome to manage (plus a raft of people cheating the system). So it wouldn't surprise me if they decide to pull the most risky public roles of police, firefighters, prison staff and school staff forward in the UK to do at the same time as over 50s. They're small groups who can be really identified and vaccinated within a week or two. Then after that it might be better just going by age after all, or using the standard vulnerable list used for flu (mild asthmatic etc) then age.

@ATieLikeRichardGere

If I were a US policy maker, given various structural issues and problems reported so far, I think I’d want to ensure that I cast the net of target groups as widely as possible to ensure at all times that vaccines go into arms.

I can see both sides of the argument here - the highest-priority groups under the UK system are the hardest logistically (very elderly and care home residents), which causes its own problems. But my fear if you didn't have strict groupings to move down then you'd get 'cherry picking' where a lot of 65 year olds who are happy to drive themselves down to the vaccine centre after getting a text got the vaccine long before 90 year olds with limited mobility and who are quite hard to communicate with - there's already been accusations that this is happening with the rollout in care homes, with people in the community, who are largely healthier, getting the vaccine ahead of care homes because it's just so much easier. That said, you have to be pragmatic, too - better that the 65 year olds get the vaccine than that it goes in the bin due to logistical issues, of course.

@MRex I'm also never really sure how people envisage it working for jobs that are much less 'formalised' than police/teachers etc. I can easily see how teachers and police priority vaccinations would be organised through their employer, but for, say, retail workers - would we be expecting each shop to be registering their employees? Would that realistically happen for very small employers (e.g. a corner shop)? Would those booking appointments be expected to act as gatekeepers to whether people 'really' should be on the priority list? There are readily accessible lists of school employees, but no national register of who works in retail, and it's much more fluid with people moving in and out. I worry that it's a bit like means-testing, that the more complex and finely granulated you make it the more resource you've wasted on the system itself, and ultimately it might be quicker all round to just have universal categories (like working your way down by age) and live with the fact that this causes some 'unfairness', just as we do when we give millionaire pensioners winter fuel allowances, for instance.

@Hardbackwriter I completely agree with what you’re saying. It’s very hard to balance. I suspect that ultimately because of logistical differences in healthcare set up and other factors in the UK and US, a slightly different policy in each might make sense. If we are in the fortunate position in the UK that we can reach the most vulnerable groups before vaccines end up in the bin, then we should probably do that. If that’s harder in the US, then a wider choice of initial targets might be a good idea. And different states will be doing things differently depending on their situations.

Because the age groups are different woolly
And we definitely have been told no police etc before the under 50s crowd.
I am no longer sure.. is our vaccine 16+ or 18+?

I would state I just thought it was interesting. I don't necessarily agree with my union stance on vaccines. I think there are far bigger issues in schools.

Thought it would be a conversation starter and it is!

My DSis very much feels she deserves it before 'smokers and fat people' so you can read her attitude there!! US police are very well masked up : full FFP etc. Not that the telly suggests this always.

I did tell her police weren't even up for consideration here unless UHC or over 50 (which she is). She was shocked..

@Piggywaspushed
I think your sis is right. Not because of fat/smoker, but in relation to doing work that benefits society vs personal factors.

@TheSunIsStillShining

“in relation to doing work that benefits society vs personal factors.“

I totally fundamentally disagree with such value judgements in terms of health care. Hard for me to articulate why as it is such a core belief. I will give it some thought.

In terms of priorities for vaccination, poorer community and BAME people need early access. Not totally sure how this could be equitably achieved.

Thanks for the new thread.

In New Jersey, simply claiming to be a smoker makes you eligible for the vaccine........
www.nytimes.com/2021/01/15/nyregion/nj-vaccine-smokers-covid.html

I think the more you try to list keyworker jobs and identify the individuals the bigger the can of worms you open - you've got self employed, small employees who genuinely employ family members, and those who don't but might claim they do, people who care for family members, 16+ school students, parents, etc, etc. I think the government might be forced to include a few easily defined groups - teachers and police maybe, but will probably combine those with a continued roll down the age groups which is a whole lot simpler for GPs to identify. And once we've done the over 50s it will likely be the 40 somethings who are filling up the hospitals, not the 20 year old shop workers.

@Quarantino - don't think I've had a cigarette in about 10 years (and was only ever a very casual smoker), but I'd be well up for a cigarette if it put me on the list for a vaccine! Yet another reason for the government to stick to their policy of repeating that age is the overiding risk factor and the best means of prioritising.

Hi folks, I have pulled the cumulative hospital admissions data by age this morning for each region in England.

I have added a table detailing this under each of the regional charts on the hospital admissions page here:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

It's quite interesting.

In general, one third of admissions have been in the 18-64 age category in every region (except London where it is quite a lot higher) .

I am surprised aged 18-64 admissions is as high as one third. It is a pity the age breakdown isn't a little more granular in this age category so we could get a clearer picture.

Although, reassuringly, as has been widely reported in the media, the number of under 17s admitted is very low.

Two sections I think are vital that don't seem to be mentioned are refuse collectors and the people who supply us with clean water/deal with our sewage. Without them we would soon be in plague conditions particularly when the summer comes.

I live somewhere with a problem with a sewage pipe and when they come out to deal with the back up of waste on a steep hill I bless them and pity them and I am so thankful to them. For some reason the problem never seems apparent down the hill, when I get the first whiff I phone to report it and they always come to thank me for letting them know before it gets completely overwhelming so I might be a bit more supportive of them than people who live in areas with a better system.

You're right @ancientgran .

Other sectors I've seen suggested for early vax are the military - potentially /actually providing support with all frontline roles at the moment - and domestic violence support workers (often critical and working for tiny charities).

We need to go through Maslow's hierarchy of need really, don't we:

Who keeps us alive?, then
Who feeds us?
Etc

By the time we get to phase 2, there should be a lot less virus in circulation. If refuse collectors and so forth have managed to keep functioning until now, surely they will not suddenly all catch it at the end of March?

We had chaos for a few weeks as covid spread round the local refuse collectors. If it had been summer it would have been more of an issue.

I don't think it is easy to predict when and where an outbreak will occur.

@ancientgran

Two sections I think are vital that don't seem to be mentioned are refuse collectors and the people who supply us with clean water/deal with our sewage. Without them we would soon be in plague conditions particularly when the summer comes.

I live somewhere with a problem with a sewage pipe and when they come out to deal with the back up of waste on a steep hill I bless them and pity them and I am so thankful to them. For some reason the problem never seems apparent down the hill, when I get the first whiff I phone to report it and they always come to thank me for letting them know before it gets completely overwhelming so I might be a bit more supportive of them than people who live in areas with a better system.

Yes I think when rubbish isn’t collected we’re in a bad way. Water also