Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

I don’t actually think any region of the north west is still rising (even taking the lag period into account) -Liverpool City, Cumbria, Lancashire, Greater Manchester and Cheshire all seem to be on the way down

@ceeveebee Ah crap, geography fail, I've just looked at a map and Leeds, Leicester and Dudley are all much less west than they were in my head (in my weak defense they are west of me!)

@swg1 - there isn't limitless vaccine right now. If areas with fewer elderly, and in some cases simply smaller populations, get the same amount of vaccine as other areas then that leads to some areas (NE and NW) starting to vaccinate younger people in their 65+ when there isn't enough vaccine to complete over 80s in other regions. Rates are still very high in London and SE even if dropping, they are increasing in East of England and SW. I understand fears when cases rise, but postcode lottery works both ways if distribution inequity isn't corrected.

It is interesting to note locally again, how up and down the figures are. Zooming in on our area, we are betwix and between areas of light blue, dark blue, pink, and purple. We are dark blue, the area immediately next to us is purple, with a startling rate of 1,250, we are 635, next area over 109. It is quite bizarre. Our local area now looks like it has chicken pox, where are a week or so ago, we were all purple, but more or less the same levels.

For context, in SW London some vaccination centres announced they weren't expecting any vaccine this week to enable other areas to catch up. In the SW, @ancientgran's care home residents and staff as well as her son in hospital staff aren't done yet. It isn't a North versus South issue, it's just trying to rebalance access equitably.

@BigWoollyJumpers

It is interesting to note locally again, how up and down the figures are. Zooming in on our area, we are betwix and between areas of light blue, dark blue, pink, and purple. We are dark blue, the area immediately next to us is purple, with a startling rate of 1,250, we are 635, next area over 109. It is quite bizarre. Our local area now looks like it has chicken pox, where are a week or so ago, we were all purple, but more or less the same levels.

I don't suppose any of those areas contain a university campus, do they? I only ask because mine does and it only very recently dawned on me that the reason that it has consistently been much lower than everyone around us (a source of much self-congratulation on our local FB group!) is, I think, because they're using a population number that includes students but there have been hardly any actually here since early December, and fewer than usual since the first lockdown, so I think they're essentially overestimating the denominator for our rates by about a third.

There have been some rows on my local social media pages because our GP has apparently been moving very quickly down the groups - some under 50s with no conditions have apparently been done - whereas the next town is still on the over 75s

I don't suppose any of those areas contain a university campus, do they? I only ask because mine does and it only very recently dawned on me that the reason that it has consistently been much lower than everyone around us (a source of much self-congratulation on our local FB group!) is, I think, because they're using a population number that includes students but there have been hardly any actually here since early December, and fewer than usual since the first lockdown, so I think they're essentially overestimating the denominator for our rates by about a third.

I've been wondering about denominators for quite a while. I think, from memory, they use the most recent census. I was wondering if any area had had so many deaths as to make a significant dent in the real denominator (sorry that's so morbid) and therefore the rates. But hadn't really considered uni campuses - but would they ever have been counted where they were studying?

ONS says that count students at their term-time addresses, so yes it could lead to quirks: "Population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies QMI - Office for National Statistics" www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/smallareapopulationestimatesqmi

I worked out the denominator they're using by working backwards from the cases and rate given, and I think my hunch is right - the number is too big for the population excluding students (it looks low to me for the number including resident students in normal times but that could be because it's an old figure and the university has grown) and I can't think of anywhere else that those extra people (it's a lot) could have come from.

Students tend to all wander noisily about together even if some live a few streets over. Probably some are in the neighbourung MSOA.

[quote MRex]ONS says that count students at their term-time addresses, so yes it could lead to quirks: "Population estimates by output areas, electoral, health and other geographies QMI - Office for National Statistics" www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationestimates/methodologies/smallareapopulationestimatesqmi[/quote]
Does anyone know if registered GP has any bearing here? Most healthcare stats allocate to an area based on GP practice & not patient address. Relevant when health areas aren't co-terminus with council areas but I don't know if the ONS use actual address.

Also, is address not the address someone gives? so a student home for xmas would probably give their parents address rather than their term time one.

Only musings, but I can't see how it is possible to say with confidence that students are only being counted by term time addresses

If it does come from last census then students were (apparently - I googled!) explicitly asked to respond for both home and term-time addresses so that they could calculate in and out of term residencies.

Hmm. So that would be reflected in rates per 100,000.

Ok, so it is January, so many more colds, coughs etc. Testing rates have not changed a huge amount, but perhaps more people testing without ‘Covid’ but more coughs etc so ticking the symptom box. Does this mean the positivity rate that now includes a wider population than that a couple of months ago. I am assuming people test with required symptoms. So positivity rate of 10% does not equate with 10% a couple of months ago?

I don’t think I am explaining this clearly, I hope someone understand what I am suggesting and is able to comment. 😂 I am wondering if the same positivity rate is of greater concern than it was.

@JanuaryChill

Oh crikey *@swg1* I'd forgotten the idea of Londoners going forth and spreading. You could be right.

Londoner here- did people travel? Maybe my peers just kept quiet about it, but bar returning University students everyone stayed put. Loads of 20/30 singletons home alone. Any data?

Ok, so it is January, so many more colds, coughs etc.

The survey has shown very little normal flu so far this year. Since the rhinovirus peak in September, the "normal" respiratory symptom causes haven't been happening, so whilst lots more symptoms then, I don't think we should be expecting more now, so positivity rates for genuine symptoms are likely to be the same as a month ago.

However the problem is we don't know how many of the tests are with symptoms or not, the stats aren't published - and probably aren't reliable anyway as people have to say they have symptoms to anyway.

But even without symptoms changing, peoples behaviour could well have changed, previously someone might've not tested on very marginal symptoms 'cos they felt it very unlikely that they were, now they would, or maybe just more worried people testing for a headache and similar.

So there's guesswork whatever direction, 10% is still bad, other than identifying.

@Yummyoldbag - there will be far fewer colds than in autumn, because schools are closed or partially closed. Even masks and outdoors are no match for a truly determined autumn cold. I've no idea on the speculation. My sense is that SE and London have ridden past the new variant wave, it's picked off the easy targets and is in decline. I don't feel that's true of all other areas; West Midlands and anywhere with flooding is a concern; slight nerves for SW and East of England. But it could really do either way from here, we stand at the start of the true lockdown crossroads and on a few days we will see if it's enough.

@Etinox - a bunch of people were photographed at King's Cross station; some might commute from Cambridge or be on a business trip, but all stood accused of fleeing London. Travelling to see parents living in the north suggests they aren't actually Londoners and are actually northerners, but logic escaped quite a few discussions.

[quote MRex]@Etinox - a bunch of people were photographed at King's Cross station; some might commute from Cambridge or be on a business trip, but all stood accused of fleeing London. Travelling to see parents living in the north suggests they aren't actually Londoners and are actually northerners, but logic escaped quite a few discussions.[/quote]
Yes I remember that, just wondered whether there had been any Stats about movement, particularly London.

@Etinox I have no stats but anecdotally the people who travelled were those with kids who would be disappointed not to see family. I know the plural of anecdote is not data but you really don't need many people to carry it out before it starts seeding.

@Hardbackwriter

I worked out the denominator they're using by working backwards from the cases and rate given, and I think my hunch is right - the number is too big for the population excluding students (it looks low to me for the number including resident students in normal times but that could be because it's an old figure and the university has grown) and I can't think of anywhere else that those extra people (it's a lot) could have come from.

Wow, census data didn't think about that. So, yes, the low rate area DOES have a university.....and the high rate area has built several thousand houses since the last census if they are using 2011, so it makes sense they will have a much higher rate, because they have 10's of thousand extra new population.

[quote swg1]@Etinox I have no stats but anecdotally the people who travelled were those with kids who would be disappointed not to see family. I know the plural of anecdote is not data but you really don't need many people to carry it out before it starts seeding.[/quote]
Equally well anecdotally from me, the only people I know that left London for the north were people who had come down to Christmas shop in London from the north and then realised they might get stuck, so hastened back again...

Aghh, sorry everyone, I was wrong.
Rate are calculated from 2019 mid-year estimates:

Rates are calculated in order to compare areas or population groups of different sizes. All rates currently presented on this website are crude rates expressed per 100,000 population, ie the count (eg cases or deaths) is divided by the denominator population and then multiplied by 100,000, without any adjustment for other factors.

Populations used are Office for National Statistics 2019 mid-year estimates, except for NHS Regions, for which 2019 estimates are not yet available, so 2018 mid-year estimates are used.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/about-data#rate-calculations

I think - from MRex's link - that it is based ultimately on the census but that they use administrative data to estimate how population has changed each year between censuses, so they should have accounted for new building (unless very recent).

I don't think the student thing makes a big difference once you get to a larger level like borough, but I think it might throw up quirks at the LSOA level - interesting that your low area is a university one, too, BigWoollyJumpers!