Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

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UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
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ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
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ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
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⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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Given that ICU is full of patients with an average age of 60 does this not mean an increasing death rate, in palliative care in hospital, in care homes and at home?

@wintertravel1980

I am a little worried by Cases By Specimen Date when looking at 18th Jan.

According to the week on week analysis from boys3, it should still be 10% down on prior week which is the move in the right direction. I agree there are geographical nuances though - some regions (more hit by the Kent strain) are dropping faster than others.

Mmm, but I tend to find keeping an eye on the "cases by specimen date" in comparison to the week before gives you an eye to where is about to be on the rebound before you've got a full week's data in.

I don't know. I could be wrong. I'd like to be because I'm in County Durham and my gut feel is that it's about to stop going down again. Let's see how the 18th looks in a couple of days when the rest of the data is in.

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain

Given that ICU is full of patients with an average age of 60 does this not mean an increasing death rate, in palliative care in hospital, in care homes and at home?

Yes :(

Essentially once you get past a certain level in the hospitals your fatality rate starts to rise because your ability to give everyone who needs it the correct medical care is lower. And you have to bear in mind that the number of people in hospital is cumulative; most people in there with covid will not be coming home in a day or so which means that even if the amount of people going to hospital lowers the amount of people in hospital will keep rising. So, it becomes more difficult to get admitted.

The next few weeks are going to be grim. And I think there's very little that can be done about that; the die is already cast.

I really hope they are working on hospital expansion for next winter. So they can cope with covid, flu.all the usual

Mmm, but I tend to find keeping an eye on the "cases by specimen date" in comparison to the week before gives you an eye to where is about to be on the rebound before you've got a full week's data in.

Yes, this is exactly what boys3 has done. She has actually looked at how Monday numbers for England for Jan 18 and Jan 11 looked on Wednesday (today and the week before).

Right now we are seeing 30,360 cases for Jan 18. A week ago, on Wednesday Jan 13 we saw 33,913 cases for Jan 11th. This translates into a 10% drop week on week.

Of course, Monday numbers are still incomplete and we will have a better view tomorrow and on Friday but the Wednesday “snapshot” usually gives a pretty good picture of whether Monday week on week trajectory is heading up or down.

boys3 maintains quite a bit of historic data which is really, really impressive!

Positive data coming from Israel where they're so far ahead of everywhere else in terms of vaccination
www.timesofisrael.com/top-official-israel-in-final-stages-of-covid-showing-world-an-exit-strategy/?__twitter_impression=true

It's saying that the proportion of cases that are among the over 60s has fallen from 2.5% to 1.5% - both of these figures seem very low to me (have they a very youthful population in Israel?) but the drop is impressive. They have vaccinated 75% of their over 60s so far, though I imagine some of them only in the last week or two.

Looking at cases in the over 80s as a proportion of all cases would be where we'd expect to see the first signs of vaccination working in the UK. Can't see it yet in the data, but hopefully will do in a week or two.

In terms on Monday 18th just gone and Monday 11th.

Monday 11th has so far recorded 51594 cases, with intriguingly, although an unnecessary digression, a further 296 cases added to it in the cases reported today.

Last Thursday a further 12185 cases were added to Monday 11th taking it to 46098 by reporting day 3.

Then on Friday 15th another 4038 added taking it past 50,000.

So @swg1 raises a valid point. Tomorrow’s reported number for Monday 18th will give us the real indication as to how it will play out.

I would surprised if it exceeded the equivalent number from last week, and would also hope that it will be a four rather than five figure number.

@Firefliess

Positive data coming from Israel where they're so far ahead of everywhere else in terms of vaccination www.timesofisrael.com/top-official-israel-in-final-stages-of-covid-showing-world-an-exit-strategy/?__twitter_impression=true

It's saying that the proportion of cases that are among the over 60s has fallen from 2.5% to 1.5% - both of these figures seem very low to me (have they a very youthful population in Israel?) but the drop is impressive. They have vaccinated 75% of their over 60s so far, though I imagine some of them only in the last week or two.

Looking at cases in the over 80s as a proportion of all cases would be where we'd expect to see the first signs of vaccination working in the UK. Can't see it yet in the data, but hopefully will do in a week or two.

I thought this positive too. But can’t work out how it fits with the new figure around today based on Vallance interview. Not as low as 33% effectiveness he said.

Have they done two doses there yet?

Finding it hard to see how good it is generally

With the data that is.

@LickEmbysmiling

I really hope they are working on hospital expansion for next winter. So they can cope with covid, flu.all the usual

They will need staff and it takes time.

As far as I'm aware, they're giving people the two doses at the recommended 3 week interval in Israel. Which means they can't possibly have any real data on how effective one dose is, because the only people who've had one dose are those who've had it within the last 3 weeks. And it's very clear from the Pfizer trial details that immunity doesn't kick in for about 12 days, so that doesn't give much of a window to assess the immunity conferred by one dose. I think the UK is going to have to be the trial of that particular dosing regime.

@Yummyoldbag
Limited vaccines supplies then vaccinate those most likely to catch and die of Covid. Unlimited supplies: most vulnerable, key workers at high risk (such as TAs delivering personal care, maybe any one delivering personal care?).

What's the difference between "vulnerable" and "most likely to catch and die of Covid" in your interpretation?
In mine they are the same. So it seems (to me) that for both supplies you would class the same group. Did I read this correctly?

Re who you vaccinate first - if you could identify those who were much more likely to catch Covid and vaccinate them, you could potentially better protect the really vulnerable by driving infection rates down faster. The trouble I think is that conversations about which groups are most at risk of catching it inevitably merge into who "deserves" the vaccine because they're doing the most important jobs, which - as we've illustrated in this thread (and the rest of MN) - then leads to lots of conflict, just about all job roles being added to an ever-growing list, concerns about cheating and practical challenges in identifying the right people. It's also an approach that only really makes any sense during a lockdown. Once they start allowing us to go out and about at all, then everyone becomes at risk (and worth vaccinating to slow the spread)

I'm really hoping that they speed up vaccinations to the point that it doesn't matter to much what order they do the under 50s in as it'll be a matter of only a few extra weeks for some. If they're still saying autumn before they can do everyone, they'll have a challenge in their hands.

They are going for a combination of vulnerability (90+) and exposure (NHS) together which I think is good

if you could identify those who were much more likely to catch Covid and vaccinate them
Covid deniers, selfish twats having parties, NHS staff and people living in care homes.
In a choice of just pick 2, you can see how they got there.

Someone in this thread has already referenced an article which describes the most effective and efficient (but not the most ethical) approach to vaccinations. It will also not work in the current circumstances when the healthcare sector is overwhelmed (or is very close to being overwhelmed):

www.wired.com/story/covid-19-vaccine-super-spreaders/

The only counterargument to "vaccinating superspreaders" is the risk that vaccines might not give the sterilising immunity. However every single medical professional I know in real life and every credible epidemiologist on twitter seems to suggest this risk is relatively low. SAGE and government are clearly concerned that vaccinated groups will stop following the rules so they are trying to influence the messaging (don't think you can hug your grandchildren just yet). We have already been there with risk of re-infections (yes, you can get COVID the second time but the chance is much lower and, with other things being equal, your illness is likely to be milder).

Our postman (who we know by name) has been off isolating, along with 80 of his colleagues from our local sorting office. We’ve had no post for about 3 weeks, people are definitely seeing the impact on day to day services locally of this variant.

In other news, has anyone seen anything anywhere apart form the echo about the new Liverpool variant? It’s been traced back the women’s hospital but I can’t see anything about how it differs

Well yes that would work @Mrex in terms of driving down infections (unless they've already had it off course), but I'm not sure it would be politically palatable!

I said earlier in this thread I'd happily take up smoking to jump the queue. I'd could also choose to self-identify as a selfish prick who intends to breach lockdown rules (Not that I am if course!) Not sure claiming to be a Covid-denier who somehow wants the vaccine is a very convincing plan...

But seriously - it's interesting because it's obviously wrong to prioritise people who put themselves at risk voluntarily. But if your objective was solely to reduce transmission, then that is what you would do. Targeting keyworkers is really all about rewarding them for working in difficult circumstances, which doesn't sit comfortably with healthcare being universal or prioritising those most in need.

@wintertravel1980 - it makes a lot of sense, except that:

1. To properly identify such people you need AI to be given a level of IT and phone access that goes against GDPR,
2. Most of the things the social butterfly can do they can't do under lockdown, so irrelevant until we must restrictions,
3. Apart from reporting loud chatty people in some weird stazi-like operation, I don't think any database knows who projects their voice enough and charts enough to be a problematic superspreader.+

• I'm really happy to support a campaign called "Quiet the fuck down, nobody cares you noisy twat", whether related to covid or not.

If you could identify those who were much more likely to catch Covid and vaccinate them, you could potentially better protect the really vulnerable by driving infection rates down faster.

This makes sense in itself, but I don't see how vaccinating 90+, never leaves house group as driving the rates down.
By this logic I'd say school children would be close to the top of the list (16+).

Thanks for new thread

I'm really happy to support a campaign called "Quiet the fuck down, nobody cares you noisy twat", whether related to covid or not

Totally on board with that, particularly for people on trains

Targeting keyworkers is really all about rewarding them for working in difficult circumstances
Not just that, other advantages:

1. We actually need healthcare staff to operate the service especially with rising infections, and they are in limited numbers, reducing the number off sick and/or changing isolation rules is hugely helpful in itself.
2. Transmission in hospitals and care homes is a big problem. Vaccines might not entirely stop transmission, but are very likely to put a huge dent in it, this reduces overall cases.
3. Reducing "fear factor" is actually really important. Remember that care home in Spain where the staff all ran away so the residents all died and a similar one in Australia but just one or two staff stayed... We don't know what mutations will come, staff need to feel at least partially protected.

Sorry, I'm numbering everything in big lists today, I don't know what's wrong with me. I'll try to resist the temptation.

What's wrong with numbering??? :)

@ThSun 90 year olds who never leave the house can be important spreaders because they require other people to come to their house to provide food and personal care. You don't need to go out and about to spread Covid, if your health and age means they need to come to you and be unavoidable in very close contact when they get there.

I do think it might have been better to do over 60s working outside the home before retired under 80s (who are mostly fit and independent) but can see the rationale for keeping it simple.