Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 20th Jan

[TheSunIsStillShining]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics.service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

'more or less' today was interesting on vaccines...

netherlands are likely to introduce a curfew from friday until at least mid february.

Oh dear God, 1820 more dead and the infection rate has gone up considerably too? Are our precautions just not stringent enough or are people neglecting to follow them?

I think all school staff, emergency services, medical staff, social workers etc should be top of the 'phase 2' but that after that we should stick to the 'age' groups and just get everyone done ASAP.

It feels, to me, like breaking it down further will just cause both delays and discontent. People will not want to hear that x job is more 'important' than y job.

@TheSunIsStillShining. Limited vaccines supplies then vaccinate those most likely to catch and die of Covid. Unlimited supplies: most vulnerable, key workers at high risk (such as TAs delivering personal care, maybe any one delivering personal care?).

Any such system is going to be really difficult to administer in practice though. As much as I slate our Government they are probably doing the right thing as regards priorities for immunisation within pragmatic constraints.

The ethics of keeping vaccine in first world countries; blimey, a whole other Pandora’s box! Interesting discussion albeit not data centred. Food for much thought following so many respectful and friendly comments.

For other off topic discussion, my three boys loved postmen. We knew them all by name when the boys were young and knew refuse collectors to say hello to when we met them in town. One of the huge benefits of having young children rarely discussed is the getting to know people. Good times. 😃

Has anyone got any thoughts on the graph at the bottom of the "death data"?
"Weekly deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date registered"

1st Jan 3,417
8th Jan 12,637

Were there any missing numbers found or did the numbers actually all but triple in a week?

What do you mean about the infection rate, Calmandmeasured? The rolling average of case numbers is falling noticeably.

Do we know what proportion of those deaths occurred in hospital, care home or at home?

@Calmandmeasured1

Oh dear God, 1820 more dead and the infection rate has gone up considerably too? Are our precautions just not stringent enough or are people neglecting to follow them?

The cases are in line with most previous days - yesterday was unusually low and there's still been a week on week drop. So hopefully it's a statistical variation not the start of the end of the decline or even a rise.

The deaths are just undeniably awful.

@Witchend

Has anyone got any thoughts on the graph at the bottom of the "death data"? "Weekly deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date registered"

1st Jan 3,417
8th Jan 12,637

Were there any missing numbers found or did the numbers actually all but triple in a week?

There will be a backlog from Christmas week when not all services are functioning as normal.

The infection rate has not gone up considerably. It is 18% down week on week (47,525 cases reported on Jan 13 vs 38,905 cases reported today). Day on day comparisons are much less useful since Wed numbers are always higher than cases reported on Mon or Tue.

According to Tim Spector, the speed of drop in cases is consistent with the first lockdown even though the rules are more “lax” (e.g. nurseries are open) and mobility stats are higher. He does put a strong caveat though that his data from the first lockdown is much less reliable.

343,163 vaccinations

That’s back up - highest yet I think.

@Witchend

Has anyone got any thoughts on the graph at the bottom of the "death data"? "Weekly deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date registered"

1st Jan 3,417
8th Jan 12,637

Were there any missing numbers found or did the numbers actually all but triple in a week?

I'm guessing very few death certificates were registered in the last couple of weeks of December due to the bank holidays/Christmas but there has clearly also been a huge rise, but probably split a bit more over those weeks than it looks by date of registration.

Do we know what proportion of those deaths occurred in hospital, care home or at home.

Deaths at home are usually quite low in relative terms (1-2%) so using numbers for England as a proxy:

Total deaths reported today - 1,662
Hospitals - 1,027 (62%)
Care homes (assuming the difference) - 635 (38%)

Looking at the cases in England from a specimen date perspective.

19 jan 4280

18 jan 25313 taking Monday after two days to 30360. By contrast this time last week Monday 11th had 33913 cases reported. So around 10% down at the moment.

17 jan 2928 taking total to 24418 so currently 25% week on week fall, albeit with some further cases to feed through.

16 Jan 1277 taking total to 26711, currently 24% lower than previous Saturday, and with not too many more cases to feed through.

15 Jan 370 added taking total to 36379 14% lower than the previous Friday.

Thanks, boys3, I always like your week on week analysis of reported numbers by specimen date. It provides useful real time information on what is really happening with the cases.

I am ready to bet that SAGE do not look at the numbers this way - and this may be the reason why they are often late at spotting new trends.

That seems like a lot of care home deaths given restrictions and priority for immunisation. Sorry for not having the stats but do you know what the proportion was in the first wave?

@ATieLikeRichardGere

343,163 vaccinations

That’s back up - highest yet I think.

Expect this to happen quite frequently. Data is, as with most things, by date reported, not when the vaccination actually happened, and, as usual, not all vaccination centres are using the same compatible databases.

Pfizer are announcing that their vaccine IS proving effective against the new B117 'Kent' strain in a pre-print study.
www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine/pfizer-vaccine-appears-effective-against-coronavirus-variant-found-in-britain-study-idUKKBN29P197

Expert reaction is welcoming and unsurprised, and there is a quiet confidence that similar findings are anticipated soon with the South African variant.
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-a-preprint-suggesting-the-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-might-be-protective-against-the-b-1-1-7-lineage-of-sars-cov-2-the-kent-variant/

This is very encouraging.

I do not know the exact number but my recollection is that care homes were about 1/3 of deaths in the first wave. However, on bad days the proportion could have been as high as 50/50.

@Barracker

Pfizer are announcing that their vaccine IS proving effective against the new B117 'Kent' strain in a pre-print study. www.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-pfizer-vaccine/pfizer-vaccine-appears-effective-against-coronavirus-variant-found-in-britain-study-idUKKBN29P197

Expert reaction is welcoming and unsurprised, and there is a quiet confidence that similar findings are anticipated soon with the South African variant.
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-a-preprint-suggesting-the-pfizer-biontech-vaccine-might-be-protective-against-the-b-1-1-7-lineage-of-sars-cov-2-the-kent-variant/

This is very encouraging.

This is such good news

I am a little worried by Cases By Specimen Date when looking at 18th Jan. There will still be cases filtering in to that for the next couple of days and in a lot of areas I'm going to suspect it's going to look very similar to the numbers for the Monday before.

Might be an anomaly, but if Christmas had resulted in the Kent variant spreading further through the country I'd expect it to take this long to start showing in the numbers. We'll see.

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

300 councils in England (out of 315) have falling cases week-over-week.

For anyone who missed it earlier, I have also added tables of cumulative hospital admissions by age for each region under the charts on the hospital admissions page here:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Only surprise in there (for me anyway) was that roughly one third of admissions are aged 18-64 (notably higher in London at 45%).

@wintertravel1980

I do not know the exact number but my recollection is that care homes were about 1/3 of deaths in the first wave. However, on bad days the proportion could have been as high as 50/50.

I found this two statements on a quick Google:

Of deaths involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) among care home residents (date of death from 2 March to 12 June 2020, registered up to 20 June 2020), 74.9% (14,519 deaths) occurred within a care home, with the remainder occurring in hospitals (24.8%) or elsewhere (0.3%).

And

From the first recorded UK case to June 5, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reported 17 422 deaths of care home residents from covid-19 in England and Wales—47% of the total.

So I think that putting those together means that about 35% of deaths were in care homes in the first wave?

I am a little worried by Cases By Specimen Date when looking at 18th Jan.

According to the week on week analysis from boys3, it should still be 10% down on prior week which is the move in the right direction. I agree there are geographical nuances though - some regions (more hit by the Kent strain) are dropping faster than others.

@littleowl1

The table of councils on the www.covidmessenger.com homepage is updated with today's data release.

300 councils in England (out of 315) have falling cases week-over-week.

For anyone who missed it earlier, I have also added tables of cumulative hospital admissions by age for each region under the charts on the hospital admissions page here:
www.covidmessenger.com/hospital-admissions/

Only surprise in there (for me anyway) was that roughly one third of admissions are aged 18-64 (notably higher in London at 45%).

They show the cases falling in my borough but the ZOE app estimates cases going up by about 1000 from last week in the same area. I know ZOE is partly based on an estimate but it was worrying to see.